Housing market

The current housing market/market is crazy right now. I am not smart enough to tell you what doesn't add up, but something doesn't. A lot of places (Austin, Phoenix, Denver, etc) houses are going for another 200k-250k than what they were three years ago. Des Moines isn't as crazy but still seeing stuff go for 80-100K more. Everyone wants to point back to what lead to the last housing market crash and say things aren't like that anymore. While I agree the cause of the 08 crash will probably not repeat itself I just don't see how this can sustain. I know nothing but I do know if something is too good to be true, it usually is. This is all anecdote from my Zillow search habit the past few years.

I have a one bedroom condo in downtown Chicago that I am listing next week. I'll come out a head, but not like I would if it were in Phoenix or Austin. Who knows, maybe inflation will sky rocket and I'll be wishing I still had my 2.75% on a 30 year note
 
The current housing market/market is crazy right now. I am not smart enough to tell you what doesn't add up, but something doesn't. A lot of places (Austin, Phoenix, Denver, etc) houses are going for another 200k-250k than what they were three years ago. Des Moines isn't as crazy but still seeing stuff go for 80-100K more. Everyone wants to point back to what lead to the last housing market crash and say things aren't like that anymore. While I agree the cause of the 08 crash will probably not repeat itself I just don't see how this can sustain. I know nothing but I do know if something is too good to be true, it usually is. This is all anecdote from my Zillow search habit the past few years.

Yeah this is a mania. I don't think it will crash like in 08 because lending standards have generally gone up, and replacement cost (ie building new) has gone up so much to support pricing (hello inflation!). But it will cool, and in some cases values will come down. Of course, whatever is happening in Iowa is always abut 5x worse in cities and on the coasts...
 
Yeah this is a mania. I don't think it will crash like in 08 because lending standards have generally gone up, and replacement cost (ie building new) has gone up so much to support pricing (hello inflation!). But it will cool, and in some cases values will come down. Of course, whatever is happening in Iowa is always abut 5x worse in cities and on the coasts...

This is literally a supply and demand issue. Pure capitalism. There doesn’t appear to be some precipitous cliff coming. as new housing stock rises more urban and existing suburban housing stock will come available and the balance will be there. Sometimes the balance gets out of whack. It happens. No need for everyone to freak out.
 
The current housing market/market is crazy right now. I am not smart enough to tell you what doesn't add up, but something doesn't. A lot of places (Austin, Phoenix, Denver, etc) houses are going for another 200k-250k than what they were three years ago. Des Moines isn't as crazy but still seeing stuff go for 80-100K more. Everyone wants to point back to what lead to the last housing market crash and say things aren't like that anymore. While I agree the cause of the 08 crash will probably not repeat itself I just don't see how this can sustain. I know nothing but I do know if something is too good to be true, it usually is. This is all anecdote from my Zillow search habit the past few years.

I have a one bedroom condo in downtown Chicago that I am listing next week. I'll come out a head, but not like I would if it were in Phoenix or Austin. Who knows, maybe inflation will sky rocket and I'll be wishing I still had my 2.75% on a 30 year note

A couple good friends are long-time established realtors and said lenders in DSM are starting to push back on appraisals. Said they've seen a few deals fall apart when the buyer couldn't come up with the difference between the appraisal and the accepted offer price and the seller wouldn't budge.
 
This is literally a supply and demand issue. Pure capitalism. There doesn’t appear to be some precipitous cliff coming. as new housing stock rises more urban and existing suburban housing stock will come available and the balance will be there. Sometimes the balance gets out of whack. It happens. No need for everyone to freak out.

The bigger issue may be in 5-7 years when prices have corrected, interest rates have gone up, everyone is in backwards, and everyone that is taking an ARM now to stretch their $ is starting to sweat.
 
Who is taking an ARM right now with fixed rates at less than 3%?

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(I have no actual evidence of this, just observation of years of folks aspirationally leveraging themselves into poverty. If you’re dead set on a $200k house that has suddenly become $230k, going from a 30yr at 3.25% to a 5yr at 2% might be appealing.)
 
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The low rates also have the effect on people of deciding they love their neighborhood, love their schools, don’t want to hassle with a move coming out of a pandemic and getting a great refi, that they might even make money on.
 
The bigger issue may be in 5-7 years when prices have corrected, interest rates have gone up, everyone is in backwards, and everyone that is taking an ARM now to stretch their $ is starting to sweat.
Sorry but the borrower is a moron if they’re taking an ARM.
 
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If the real estate agent was correct a house would never sell over list price, because as a buyer there would never be a need to offer over list price.

A relative is a real estate agent. Said there is no law saying the cash offer had to be accepted

However, she did say the agent should be paid. The agent found a willing buyer and should get commission.

I'm guessing that an additional buyer would pay more than the cash offer in the scenario discussed, but an additional wrinkle
 
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A relative is a real estate agent. Said there is no law saying the cash offer had to be accepted

However, she did say the agent should be paid. The agent found a willing buyer and should get commission.

I'm guessing that an additional buyer would pay more than the cash offer in the scenario discussed, but an additional wrinkle

That is the conflict here. I hear every realtor say how realtors get you the most available for your property; then a situation like this occurs and realtors then say their job was to find a willing buyer. One part of a realtors job is to know the market so they can list your property correct, that in returns gets you top dollar.
 
A relative is a real estate agent. Said there is no law saying the cash offer had to be accepted

However, she did say the agent should be paid. The agent found a willing buyer and should get commission.

I'm guessing that an additional buyer would pay more than the cash offer in the scenario discussed, but an additional wrinkle

Of course she would say they should get the commission. I am not on the burn it all to the ground side as some on here are but "found a willing buyer" is awfully generous in any market condition for a sellers agent ESPECIALLY in this market. If I were to list right now I would absolutely go the FSBO route and pay MUCH less for basically the same services.

If I were the one selling I would have a very serious discussion with the listing agent and make it known that you intend to file a grievance against them for negligence and lack of ethics. Document Document Document. Anything past that is going to likely cause you more headaches and cost than it is worth IMO.
 
A condo up the street sold for $2,500,000 October 2020 listed it again in May 2021 and sold for $3,500,000. This is in Naples FL. It's crazy.
 
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You'd be stunned absolutely stunned to hear how many people take out ARM's right now...

Financial Literacy in America is an epidemic beyond stupidity

Bubble brewing?

Secondary market rates are cheaper than ARMs, so I’m guessing many of those ARM buyers wouldn’t qualify for secondary market?
 
A lot of credit unions and some banks have been doing 90/10 mortgages for quite some time now. I completely disagree with that type of financing but it sure opens up a market to homebuyers that save no money for a down payment but can cash flow the payment.