First day there is rarely anything to go on, so yeah - we shoot from the hip. Now comes the more interesting voting. Notice voting patterns, Read the theories others put out there. Ask questions. Throw out your own theories, good, bad, or ugly. And remember to VOTE.
There is generally a ratio of 1 mafia to every 5-6 innocents and innocent adjacents (like the vigilante). So we can kind of expect anywhere from 5-7 mafia.
Innos vastly outnumber the mafia, but the mafia have the advantage of knowing their group and being able to communicate and strategize through PM's during the game. Innos are stumbling around in the dark...but every now and again they get lucky...like hitting a mafia member on the first night.
Expect a lot of guff from the experienced players. Take it in stride. And now I will have a HUGE target on my back for being nice to you, so do me a favor & don't vote for me!