Not a big fan of any off the schools mentioned other than BYU. BYU is the only schools that has shown P5 attendance levels consistently over time - averaging around $60k fans at their home game over the past 4 years. I realize that the goal of expansion is to maximize TV revenue, but IMO fans in stands is a good indicator a high number of fans are also watching on TV's. The problem with BYU, we are repeating the mistake when we added WVU. WVU is out on an island compare to the rest of the Big 12. If we add BYU, we are now creating a new island out in Provo. IMO if we add BYU, we need to be prepared to go with a 16 team conference and add 2 schools among New Mexico, UNLV, CSU or SDSU.
Whereas is we go east, we fill in the footprint between the most Big 12 schools and WVU. The problem is all those schools are suspect. They don't already have the pedigree to be P5 schools. If they did they would have been included in the previous round of expansion.
Houston - great potential as they are in a recruiting hotbed and large TV market. But they have one of the lowest average home attendance over the last 4 years of any team being considered. Even with their outstanding 2015 season, they only drew 34k fans. They only drew 24k in 2013.
Memphis - drew 44k in 2015, but 24k in 2012 and 28k in 2013. Their TV market is no where close to Houston, but maybe it opens a new recruiting area for Big12 (maybe). Coach that was successful is gone.
Cincy - makes the most sense as they are a partner school for WVU. They have solid athletic teams, other than just looking at FB. The TV market is solid and they are building a new stadium. However, in 2 of the last 4 years they drew less than 30k fans to their games. Although 37k in 2015 is OK.
UCF - Horrible football team in 2015 with zero wins. However, they are just a couple years removed from bowl win. In 2013 they drew 42k fans, but last year during the winless season that dropped to 30k. Large TV market and gives visibility to Florida market for Big 12. I don't think this helps recruiting as most schools already have a presence. In fact it may make UCF a more viable option when ISU and UCF are targeting the same kid.
Temple - They are a mirror image of Houston, just on east coast. One of the largest TV markets. They had a great year in 2015 and averaged 44k fans at home games (that # is distorted by 65k+ for ND and PSU). The prior 3 years, they didn't average 25k fans at home games & they play at Eagles Stadium.
UConn - Their value is as an outstanding mens and womens basketball school.
Personally, BYU is the only schools that give Texas and OU a reason to stay in the Big 12 long term. Sure Texas governor is making case for Houston, but in the end is that going to keep OU in the Big 12. I think not.
One could take the perspective, who cares if any of the schools are really qualified to be in a P5 conference. We have a TV contract that is going distribute equal amount of revenue for any school added. Why not add 4-6 schools and payout the new schools a lower share, providing a revenue escalator to existing schools? Makes sense in the short term, but these are the same TV Networks we are going to want to pay huge rights fees in 2024. If I am ESPN or FOX, I would consider that in my negotiation in 2024. Texas and OU might not care, because without an extended GOR, they are off to the Big 10 or SEC.
