Dow 30,000

[CyBlock]

I do not think you should thank anybody. The market does what the market does for reasons far beyond the control of any individual, including the President of the United States. Just saying -- the market has been so good over the past few years that any idiot with a random number generator or the ability to buy into an S&P index fund should have gotten you great returns. Your adviser is not exactly displaying a unique or special talent there when the market is paying out for basically everybody of late.

Now, if you find their services valuable, then great for you. I tend to think financial planning is something anybody can do with a spreadsheet (or even a few sheets of paper and a basic calculator) and some organized thinking on their part, but if you find farming that out to a professional useful to you, then do enjoy it. Their fees are going to eat into your investment returns from the market, however, so they better be *much* better than the market average, else you are better off with a low-fee index fund. You get the same (or better!) returns without advisory fees eating into the return, which adds up long-term.

Or at least that is how I play it.

Not sure where you're getting your info, but I pay nothing for my financial services from an advisor. Some charge you , some don't. I will pay for market trades, but that's it. Save yourself some money if you aren't smart enough to find a no-cost adviser. The good thing, is that I have the final say. Yes, any stupid, blind, deaf and dumb monkey could have made money the past three years, but my return is far and above the market average, so I will thank my investment person for that. If I have to pay him, I don't care! He is good enough that we keep in contact almost weekly, so we are "in-tune" as to what the market is doing. That's his job, and thank goodness he's tremendous at it! Not sure what you have against professional investment services, but they do that for a living, and the good ones will make you more money than the average "cockatoo" or "monkey".

 

[deadeyededric]

The most recent round of tax cuts is roughly $150 billion per year.

So you still have that other $850 billion to explain.

Your basic point is sound, though, even if slightly overblown. The size of the tax cuts is not nearly enough to explain the increases in capitalization we are seeing.

To quote CBO --

On the basis of the analysis described in The 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook, which incorporates the assumption that current law generally does not change, the Congressional Budget Office projects that those trust funds combined would be exhausted in calendar year 2031, requiring the amounts scheduled to be paid in 2032 to be reduced by 26 percent.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54868

That is the point the "kicking the can" probably cannot go on any longer.

Around then is probably when you get a real fiscal crisis, which would mean a major contraction in fiscal policy and much higher real interest rates.

The market would not like either of those things.

The tax cuts will push the deficit over a trillion per year rather. A trillion dollar infrastructure package is what we should have done.

 

[deadeyededric]

We should not be looking at fiscal policy as the direct cause of the past three years. The numbers do not make any sense that way. Something else is up.

Military Spending

 

[madguy30]

Now, if you find their services valuable, then great for you. I tend to think financial planning is something anybody can do with a spreadsheet (or even a few sheets of paper and a basic calculator) and some organized thinking on their part, but if you find farming that out to a professional useful to you, then do enjoy it. Their fees are going to eat into your investment returns from the market, however, so they better be *much* better than the market average, else you are better off with a low-fee index fund. You get the same (or better!) returns without advisory fees eating into the return, which adds up long-term.

Or at least that is how I play it.

Nothing to do with the markets but I had a friend recently telling me how he was going to a financial advisor to see about ways him and his g/f can save money but then went on to talk about how he doesn't want to just hear 'don't go out to eat as much' etc., when, if you do the math, can save you a very good chunk of change if you do it right.

 

[LarryISU]

Need to add an option to this poll: "I predict a coronavirus pandemic to bring the entire planet to a standstill bringing the Dow back to $18,000."

Then I want to change my previous vote.

 

[cyclone101]

We needed like one week to make 30,000. So close.

Friggin 'Rona.

 

[brianhos]

We needed like one week to make 30,000. So close.

Friggin 'Rona.

We will get there again, Fed will make sure of it.

 

[Sigmapolis]

We will get there again, Fed will make sure of it.

Nobody qualified that it had to be in real terms.

 

[cyclone101]

We will get there again, Fed will make sure of it.

Retirement with a side of inflation. Yay!

 

[RonBurgundy]

We needed like one week to make 30,000. So close.

Friggin 'Rona.

Yea, crazy how close it got. I would be happy to be back to 27,000 by year’s end. Going to be a lot of volatility once economic impacts start becoming more pronounced.

 

[brianhos]

Retirement with a side of inflation. Yay!

Seems like the plan.

 

[Cyclonepride]

We will get there again, Fed will make sure of it.

Yep, stock market will be at 30,000, everything else will be twice as expensive. What a win.

 

[Dopey]

We will get there again, Fed will make sure of it.

Can't believe how the market has continued to rise with earnings in the tank and unemployment through the roof.

Full on bleeding heart liberal here, but it just seems to further substantiate how little the stock market (especially the DOW) means to the common person in the short term.

 

[BCClone]

Can't believe how the market has continued to rise with earnings in the tank and unemployment through the roof.

Full on bleeding heart liberal here, but it just seems to further substantiate how little the stock market (especially the DOW) means to the common person in the short term.

Think Quantitative Easing........

 

[Sigmapolis]

Can't believe how the market has continued to rise with earnings in the tank and unemployment through the roof.

Full on bleeding heart liberal here, but it just seems to further substantiate how little the stock market (especially the DOW) means to the common person in the short term.

Think Quantitative Easing........

I do not even look at the DJIA. The S&P 500 is a better index.

That being said, all that excess liquidity has to go somewhere, right?

 

[Rural]

Can't believe how the market has continued to rise with earnings in the tank and unemployment through the roof.

Full on bleeding heart liberal here, but it just seems to further substantiate how little the stock market (especially the DOW) means to the common person in the short term.

Wait'll you see the tab for keeping it artificially inflated.

 

[ISUAlum2002]

Can't believe how the market has continued to rise with earnings in the tank and unemployment through the roof.

Full on bleeding heart liberal here, but it just seems to further substantiate how little the stock market (especially the DOW) means to the common person in the short term.

It's all baked in.

 

[Mtowncyclone13]

It's all baked in.

Which is a cop out. Anticipation of good news seems a stock higher. Then the actual good news sends it even higher.

Tesla's factory could burn down and the stock would lose 10%. Then it would be rebuilt and the stock would go up 20% on the good news.

 

[cygrads]

I do not even look at the DJIA. The S&P 500 is a better index.

That being said, all that excess liquidity has to go somewhere, right?

Yep has to go somewhere and the U.S.stock markets are the place where a lot of the world's money is going.

 

[RonBurgundy]

Would not have thought it possible with the pandemic, but congrats to the 26 that hit their projection.