Comparison to last years team

[mitten1975]

This late season surge, Naz has played a huge part. The team last year with this Naz, it is hard to tell what might have happened. However then we wouldn't have had him this year. Every team is a puzzle to put together. Coach has done a good job. The players have done very well. I wish the whole world was in as good a shape as ISU men's basketball.

 

[coolerifyoudid]

For me, it's hard to compare them until the season's finished so I can really see how they end up. Ongoing stats tell a good story, but a strong showing at the end could really propel this team. Ultimately, you want to see them playing their best at the end.

Last year's team had the huge advantage of having one of the best Cyclones ever in Georges, plus the energy and height of Nader and McKay.

This year's team has Naz back, much better defensive intensity, a more offensively minded Monte, and some legitimate depth.

Last year's final match-up against Virginia was a bad one for us. Being able to defend and having some depth would have gone a long ways.

With the recent emergence of Young, we are closing the "bad match-ups" gap a little better for this year's team. It's a great time to be a Cyclone.

 

[CTTB78]

Last year's team obviously had more offensive talent. This year's team made up for losing three pros by playing real defense.

 

[Cycsk]

Doesn't this amount to asking whether Monte's offense can beat Monte's defense?

It is like asking if God can create a rock that is too big for him to move!

 

[Clones15]

Long time lurker, first time poster.

Let's say we win out in the regular season, beating Baylor, Ok State, and WVU. If we win at least one game in the conference tournament, wouldn't we probably be a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament?

Last year's team was a 4 seed.. I think last year's team was probably a little better, but what this year's team has done so far, especially the last few weeks, has been pretty remarkable.

 

[coolerifyoudid]

Long time lurker, first time poster.

Let's say we win out in the regular season, beating Baylor, Ok State, and WVU. If we win at least one game in the conference tournament, wouldn't we probably be a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament?

Last year's team was a 4 seed.. I think last year's team was probably a little better, but what this year's team has done so far, especially the last few weeks, has been pretty remarkable.

This is way better than my first post...and every one since then.

 

[jkclone]

Long time lurker, first time poster.

Let's say we win out in the regular season, beating Baylor, Ok State, and WVU. If we win at least one game in the conference tournament, wouldn't we probably be a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament?

Last year's team was a 4 seed.. I think last year's team was probably a little better, but what this year's team has done so far, especially the last few weeks, has been pretty remarkable.

I'd say we would need to get to the championship for that.

 

[ca4cy]

Tough question but a good discussion. I think last year's team was largely the same throughout the year. Yes there were changes, but we won and lost the same kinds of games in March that we did in January. This team has undergone more of a tear down/build up process. I see us winning games now that we wouldn't have 4-6 weeks ago. I don't think we can realistically say who is better, but gun to my head I'm probably giving the nod to the team with Georges on the roster. The main difference I see is that last year's team was more likely to beat you with a late bucket whereas this one is more likely to beat you with a late defensive stop.

 

[dualthreat]

I'm more impressed with Solomon Young this year than McKay last year. His junior year he tore it up but he was in his head all last year and got pushed around in the paint.

I didn't see most of the games before Jan 1 this year, but I had assumed Young was a JUCO. Then watching him against K-State I assured myself he must be a senior. Boy was I pleasantly surpirsed when I realized he was just a freshman. Very impressed with his physicality. That guy can get up and grab rebounds!

 

[Gunnerclone]

When do we honestly consider this years team better than last years team? I am just looking for opinions on this.
Do we have to make it past the sweet 16 or finish higher in the big 12 which we are likely to do?

I think finishing top 3 in the big 12 and making it into the second weekend in the tournament will seal it.

When they make to the Elite Eight.

 

[Cychl82]

Head to head, I would take last year's team simply because in the last minute, Monte + Niang >>> Monte + Burton.

Plus McKay would eat our posts alive.

With that said, Monte is probably better this year, and Naz is playing some of the best ball of his career.

The way we're playing now, I think this current team would advance to the Sweet 16 if they had the same path as last year.

no chance McKay would eat them alive.....was he better absolutely but Solomon is really progressing at a rapid rate at this point and look forward to his future here very much.

 

[Dale]

Long time lurker, first time poster.

Let's say we win out in the regular season, beating Baylor, Ok State, and WVU. If we win at least one game in the conference tournament, wouldn't we probably be a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament?

Last year's team was a 4 seed.. I think last year's team was probably a little better, but what this year's team has done so far, especially the last few weeks, has been pretty remarkable.

Seems plausible. Compared to, say, Purdue, who is a consensus four seed, we would have arguably three wins (@KU, @WV, Baylor) better than Purdue's best (either Wisconsin or @MD). Our set of losses would be worse, however, especially @texas (since we share a loss @iowa). I'd say the four/five line would seem about right.

 

[Cyclonepride]

I'm more impressed with Solomon Young this year than McKay last year. His junior year he tore it up but he was in his head all last year and got pushed around in the paint.

I didn't see most of the games before Jan 1 this year, but I had assumed Young was a JUCO. Then watching him against K-State I assured myself he must be a senior. Boy was I pleasantly surpirsed when I realized he was just a freshman. Very impressed with his physicality. That guy can get up and grab rebounds!

I've been debating the McKay/Young comparisons in my head, and I think you have to view each player in light of the expectations that you had for them at the time. McKay was expected to be fairly dominant at his position, but struggled at times (with focus and other things). Young has the benefit of the doubt. We have had hopes for him this year, but few actual expectations. In that way, McKay's senior year was a bit of a disappointment (mainly due to the extra issues, and not making a huge step year to year), and Solomon's freshman year a bit of a pleasant surprise. So kind of unfair to compare either way.

 

[DRCHIRO]

-Offensively, it took some time for us to learn to play without Georges and we are now finding our offensive groove at the right time.
-Defensively, we are much improved and that is where we needed to be better and will ultimately play dividends.
-We have more depth this year.
-Also, we're playing really well away from Hilton.

It all depends on match ups. We had a favorable tourney draw, especially with Little Rock knocking off Purdue. Not making the sweet 16 would have been a huge disappointment.

 

[cyclone19702]

-Offensively, it took some time for us to learn to play without Georges and we are now finding our offensive groove at the right time.
-Defensively, we are much improved and that is where we needed to be better and will ultimately play dividends.
-We have more depth this year.
-Also, we're playing really well away from Hilton.

It all depends on match ups. We had a favorable tourney draw, especially with Little Rock knocking off Purdue. Not making the sweet 16 would have been a huge disappointment.

That's what makes it so hard in comparing because the tournament is often about matchups. The favorable argument for this years team is that they will finish in the top 4 in the Big 12 and the league might be better this year in terms of depth.

 

[Thomasrickj]

Let's think about it this way: we totally choked away the games to Cincinnati, Texas and Baylor (you could maybe throw in Gonzaga and TCU). Take away those three losses and we are one game behind Kansas with a record of 21-7 (12-3). That would probably put us around #15 right meow. I think this team has the ability to be better than last year and has hopefully figured it out now. This five game streak is nice and I want to believe we have it figured out, but we shall see.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I think they are pretty close. This year's team could pull ahead depending on how it performs the rest of the year. Let's talk match-ups and then some analytics for a moment...

http://kenpom.com/

THIS YEAR
Offense = 116.9 (27)
Defense = 95.9 (31)
Overall = +21.04 (24)

LAST YEAR
Offense = 120.1 (7)
Defense = 99.2 (91)
Overall = +20.93 (20)

This year's team actually has a higher efficiency rating, even if a slightly lower ranking given the distribution of teams this year. It is a very balanced team, too, actually better on offense than on defense all the sudden, and this is with most of the season having dregs playing the 5 instead of a solid young man in Solomon Young. Last year's team had an elite offense with Niang plus Nader and some help from the others there, well, that was basically it.

So it comes down to if this year's team can D-up last year's scorers. Let's see...

This year's team has four good to very good perimeter defenders (Morris, NML, Thomas, and Jackson). I imagine that Naz or Thomas could keep Monté in front of him, and this year's team is smart enough on help and rotations not to give up too many uncontested threes for the Ice Man. Defender our guards last year was not the issue, though, so what would they do about Nader and Niang then...? That would determine the outcome to a large degree.

Our guards this year are very good at denying entry passes and turned lazy ones into steals. We do not generate extra positions on the boards, but we minimize the heck out of turnovers and steal the ball like crazy. So they could limit his touches, but he is going to still end up with it more often than not. You have to double Georges -- he could beat anybody not named Malcolm Brogdon 1v1 with ease. Solomon, Burton, NWB, or a guard in his jock the second he has the ball. Georges was deadly passing out of something like that, but I figure our guards are going to be hawking for that outlet pass, too, and depend on turnovers to create extra possessions.

Nader would be a challenge with our big men concentrating so much on Georges. I do not know if our guards would be big enough to guard him, nor if Deonte is a good enough defender period (he garners a lot of steals, but gets beat too often) to slow him down enough. NWB is solid defensively but offers little on offense. That might be the weakness. Not scared of McKay -- bad attitude, no back-to-the-basket skills, put a huge body on him like Solomon and he'll probably be sitting on the bench pouting because he got his lunch money stolen quickly enough.

Solomon taking away Niang or Nader would be key. We will see how he finishes the season. Completely different mentality with this team now that he has emerged.

On offense, this team likes to do two things...

-- run, let Monté, Naz, and Jackson, who and super creative going to the basket, do exactly that, or kick back to Thomas or some other trailer for a three

-- chuck threes in the half-court

If we remember last year, that combination could be deadly for Niang's senior year. They have zero depth and are terrified of foul trouble, so a team that is looking to run and has the bodies and the conditioning on the perimeter to do it is going to be a huge problem for them. They also had awful rotations (too many posts and wings, not enough speedy guards, ironically the opposite this year, gets killed on teams with smart ball reversals all the time) and gave up a ton of open threes. Remember how teams always seemed to score their season high against us and shoot some ridiculous percentage from the field, particularly the three point area?

...imagine that going up against Naz Mitrou-Long and Matt Thomas this year on a hot night, one or the other, or one of the nights Monté or Burton is feeling it going to the hoop.

Mr. T predicts pain when Naz Mitrou-Long starts lighting it up on his roommate and best friend. Amazing how a 2* guard grew into our best pure scorer.

I honestly think this year's team is a huge match-up problem for last year. Fast, deep, defensively sound teams gave us fits last year, and teams that could bomb it from three against a defensively unsound team who was "bad at defending the three-pointer" would be even worse. Honestly, I think I would pick this year's team to win over last years. This team runs, they get tired, this team starts bombing and hitting threes like everybody did against them, Niang has an off night with way too many turnovers, their guards cannot do much against a smothering defense, McKay is a non-factor as a freshman with thirty pounds on him pushes him around, Nader goes off and has a big night to keep them in it, but not enough to overcome the deficit.

We will see how the season ends, but these two teams are right on top of each other in terms of their quality for me right now. Just imagine if this one had Malou.