CW tweeted yesterday that the spread opened at Iowa State -5.5. I now see -3.5. Professional bettors just haven’t liked Iowa State’s underlying numbers all season.
Until now, I hadn’t looked much into why, but—they dropped 11 spots to 37th overall in SP+. Okay, they were bad in all phases Saturday, not too surprising. What I did find surprising is their SP+ offense rating now ranks 48th in the country. For all of our discussions about the defense—and there are some legitimate reasons for concern—its rating ranks 17 spots better, at 31st. Iowa State’s offense ranks 69th (sadly, not nice) in yards per play—one spot behind…Colorado (and two behind Kansas State)—and 60th in total offense.
Given that special teams is going to be what it’s going to be until Konrardy comes back, and the defense is adjusting post-injuries, the offense has to be better. Like, way better, at least if this team is still going to get to Arlington. I don’t have the answers, but luckily Colorado’s defense is average at best