You aren't taking into account the other players in the draft at all. This years draft class is extremely deep, especially with big men. Next year's draft would give Royce a better chance to be taken into the lottery but there is no guarantee which is why he made the decision he did.In another year, NBA scouts would probably consider him old. Like others have said, it's all about potential. Royce had a great first year of college ball and showed enough that he will hopefully get drafted in the 1st round. I personally think he went from the second to the first with his play against 3 of the top big men coming out this year during the tourney.