Bracketology 2024

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Does a VCU win today move our needle at all? I assume our seed is already decided right now and they are just plugging in today's winners at this point.
 
Looking at the source provided (thank you all that shared) it looks like the S Curve is a real thing for 2 seeds.

Meaning that if we’re number 5 there are two reasons we’d not go east. One being that UCOnn is top overall and two being that we’re closest to Detroit.

Am I doing this right? :(
 

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Lunardi just said we won't be a 1 seed because 1) human nature - committee likely had 1 seeds picked Thursday or Friday and 2) a strength of nonconference schedule in the 300s which a one seed has never, and will never have on their resume.

Those are the lamest excuses ever. No mention of our Q1 record or overall strength of schedule.
Wonder if he can come up with a single team who was deserving of a 1 seed but missed it because of non con SOS.
 
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Which is an insanely stupid f*cking comment/observation. Gonzaga has had multiple 1 seeds and plays a complete dog nuts conference slate. The whole non con SOS point is so worthless when you play in the toughest league in the country. Schools like Arizona and UNC have multiple go through the motions conference opponents, we had zero.

Couldn't agree more! Looking at a team's overall strength of schedule is very valid, but looking at the strength of schedule for only a fraction of the team's schedule is beyond stupid. Makes no sense whatsoever.
 
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Does a VCU win today move our needle at all? I assume our seed is already decided right now and they are just plugging in today's winners at this point.
Wondering the same thing. For those in the know on all the metrics, does a VCU win potentially give them a bump somewhere, and subsequently our non-con SOS a bump?
 
Yes, unless Arizona is the 5 then we could be 6
Your s curve isn't realistic, it really isn't even a thing for 1 and 2 seeds.

After assigning the 1s. 5 thru 8 are assigned by geographics unless conference partners get in the way.

If UNC gets the final one. Arizona is assured of the 2 in the west because it's the last choice distance wise foe everyone else.

Leaving us, Tennessee and Marquette,
Marquette can't go East, we can't go South.
All 3 schools nearest location is Detroit. The highest overall of the 3 will get Detroit. The final two will be determined by conference affiliation.
 
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Lunardi just said we won't be a 1 seed because 1) human nature - committee likely had 1 seeds picked Thursday or Friday and 2) a strength of nonconference schedule in the 300s which a one seed has never, and will never have on their resume.

Those are the lamest excuses ever. No mention of our Q1 record or overall strength of schedule.

Quick notes - expanding based on your summary, I didn't hear/read it from Lunardi directly.

For (1) Yes, I assume the committee had 1 seeds penciled early in the process, but a LOT has occurred since late Friday that was unexpected and uncommon (not only directly with ISU, but other factors). There would be time for some reassessment. If it all happened in today's later games, perhaps it wouldn't change as much. (Not an "official" analysis, it's my take ... or at least the way I think it should be handled in realistic manner).

For (2) Lunardi does have a good grasp on what the committee does historically or typically, but simply because a sub-300 OOC hasn't received a 1, it doesn't mean it's impossible or can't happen. That's viewing it in a vacuum. Every situation is different.

My hunch is ISU will be a 2, so I'm not arguing we deserve a 1, just that neither of those are a primary justification.
 


SIAP and wasn't sure where to put this. It's fun hearing others think we're headed for the final four

Always respected Tim Fitzgerald. And he has always seemed to keep an upbeat attitude while battling his illness.