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Bracketology 2024

NiceMarmot said:
Finally was able to update my bracket projection for the first time in about 5 days.

View attachment 125417

  • Marquette, ISU, Creighton, and Baylor at 7-10 in my seed list is about as close as it can possibly be. ISU/Baylor are the 2/3 seeds in the Big 12 tourney, Creighton/Marquette are the 2/3 seeds in the Big East tourney -- if they meet in the semis, those games should just be playoff games to determine who gets the 2-seed vs. the 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament. It isn't that simple, but sometimes, it should just be that simple. I don't think any of the teams, coaches, fanbases would have a problem with that.
  • With those 4 teams all passing Kansas, that pushes Kansas out of Omaha and to Pittsburgh. With Self potentially punting on the Big 12 tournament, don't be shocked if Kansas doesn't end up in Omaha if they lose their first game or game 2 vs. Baylor.
  • Iowa State now has a slight possibility of not making Omaha. It would take many different things occurring but it is possible. If Kansas beats Cincy/West Va and then beats Baylor, and if Iowa State loses to Texas/KState, Kansas will pass Iowa State on the seed list most likely, and Baylor likely would too (as their loss isn't as "bad" of a loss).
    • Root for Kansas to lose to Cincinnati or West Virginia, and if they don't, root for Baylor to beat Kansas. If ISU takes care of business, being placed in Omaha shouldn't be a concern, but I'm guessing they would only be 5-8 point favorites against Texas/KState, so it's not a guarantee.
    • If Marquette or Creighton drop their first Big East tournament game, that would help ISU as well.
  • I have New Mexico and Indiana State as my last 2 teams in the field, but that's with a major qualifier. Florida Atlantic and Dayton are getting in the field, so I just have them as placeholder automatic qualifiers from the American and the A-10. But the odds would say someone other than those two teams will win those conference tournaments. If they do, whomever the last 2 at-large teams are currently will fall out into the NIT.
  • Drake's resume really looks like a 9 or 10-seed resume to me, but I just assume most mid-major conference tournament winners are no better than an 11-seed in the eyes of the committee unless they have 2 or 3 losses.
  • These things usually get somewhat ironed out in conference tournaments, but I had no idea what to do with the last few spots today. A true "throw your hands up in the air" type reaction. From 38 (Virginia) to my 3rd team out (Villanova) feels incredibly tight. Any of those teams being left out or included at this stage wouldn't surprise me.
I'll probably have another update Thursday or Friday morning. A lot of automatic qualifiers are decided tonight, and then Wed/Thurs will be big day for the bubble teams.
Click to expand...
Excellent analysis, and your bracket looks viable.

The bubble (low 10 to next 4 out) definitely has a lot of "pendings." As is common every year. I think the lowest "lock" I have is Michigan State, or perhaps Seton Hall. (I have CU as highest 11 currently, but yours is probably more precise).
 
NiceMarmot said:
Finally was able to update my bracket projection for the first time in about 5 days.

View attachment 125417

  • Marquette, ISU, Creighton, and Baylor at 7-10 in my seed list is about as close as it can possibly be. ISU/Baylor are the 2/3 seeds in the Big 12 tourney, Creighton/Marquette are the 2/3 seeds in the Big East tourney -- if they meet in the semis, those games should just be playoff games to determine who gets the 2-seed vs. the 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament. It isn't that simple, but sometimes, it should just be that simple. I don't think any of the teams, coaches, fanbases would have a problem with that.
  • With those 4 teams all passing Kansas, that pushes Kansas out of Omaha and to Pittsburgh. With Self potentially punting on the Big 12 tournament, don't be shocked if Kansas doesn't end up in Omaha if they lose their first game or game 2 vs. Baylor.
  • Iowa State now has a slight possibility of not making Omaha. It would take many different things occurring but it is possible. If Kansas beats Cincy/West Va and then beats Baylor, and if Iowa State loses to Texas/KState, Kansas will pass Iowa State on the seed list most likely, and Baylor likely would too (as their loss isn't as "bad" of a loss).
    • Root for Kansas to lose to Cincinnati or West Virginia, and if they don't, root for Baylor to beat Kansas. If ISU takes care of business, being placed in Omaha shouldn't be a concern, but I'm guessing they would only be 5-8 point favorites against Texas/KState, so it's not a guarantee.
    • If Marquette or Creighton drop their first Big East tournament game, that would help ISU as well.
  • I have New Mexico and Indiana State as my last 2 teams in the field, but that's with a major qualifier. Florida Atlantic and Dayton are getting in the field, so I just have them as placeholder automatic qualifiers from the American and the A-10. But the odds would say someone other than those two teams will win those conference tournaments. If they do, whomever the last 2 at-large teams are currently will fall out into the NIT.
  • Drake's resume really looks like a 9 or 10-seed resume to me, but I just assume most mid-major conference tournament winners are no better than an 11-seed in the eyes of the committee unless they have 2 or 3 losses.
  • These things usually get somewhat ironed out in conference tournaments, but I had no idea what to do with the last few spots today. A true "throw your hands up in the air" type reaction. From 38 (Virginia) to my 3rd team out (Villanova) feels incredibly tight. Any of those teams being left out or included at this stage wouldn't surprise me.
I'll probably have another update Thursday or Friday morning. A lot of automatic qualifiers are decided tonight, and then Wed/Thurs will be big day for the bubble teams.
Click to expand...
Kansas is toast and won't beat Baylor without Dickenson and McCullar
 
  • Agree
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dahliaclone said:
Kansas is toast and won't beat Baylor without Dickenson and McCullar
Click to expand...

Most likely, you are right. Just wanted to put it out there that it is something that *could* happen. I'll be fascinated to see what that line would be with no Dickinson/McCullar, a favorable KU crowd, and Baylor's lack of success historically in the Big 12 tournament.

In 2014, Baylor made the Big 12 final and lost to ISU. Since then, Baylor is 3-8 in the Big 12 tournament and have gone 1-and-done 5 out of 8 years. I'm not totally ruling out a KU win there.
 
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NiceMarmot said:
Most likely, you are right. Just wanted to put it out there that it is something that *could* happen. I'll be fascinated to see what that line would be with no Dickinson/McCullar, a favorable KU crowd, and Baylor's lack of success historically in the Big 12 tournament.

In 2014, Baylor made the Big 12 final and lost to ISU. Since then, Baylor is 3-8 in the Big 12 tournament and have gone 1-and-done 5 out of 8 years. I'm not totally ruling out a KU win there.
Click to expand...
If Kansas beat Baylor would that drop the Bears below us in the S-Curve (if we lost in game 1 to Texas/K-State)? If so, then we’d still be good for Omaha (unless Creighton jumps Marquette)
 
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SolterraCyclone said:
If Kansas beat Baylor would that drop the Bears below us in the S-Curve (if we lost in game 1 to Texas/K-State)? If so, then we’d still be good for Omaha (unless Creighton jumps Marquette)
Click to expand...
I think we are ahead of Baylor right now, so if they lose then yeah, I think we are safe. However if we face them and they beat us head to head on a neutral court maybe not so much, but we'd still probably end up in Omaha.
 
  • Agree
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NiceMarmot said:
Finally was able to update my bracket projection for the first time in about 5 days.

View attachment 125417

  • Marquette, ISU, Creighton, and Baylor at 7-10 in my seed list is about as close as it can possibly be. ISU/Baylor are the 2/3 seeds in the Big 12 tourney, Creighton/Marquette are the 2/3 seeds in the Big East tourney -- if they meet in the semis, those games should just be playoff games to determine who gets the 2-seed vs. the 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament. It isn't that simple, but sometimes, it should just be that simple. I don't think any of the teams, coaches, fanbases would have a problem with that.
  • With those 4 teams all passing Kansas, that pushes Kansas out of Omaha and to Pittsburgh. With Self potentially punting on the Big 12 tournament, don't be shocked if Kansas doesn't end up in Omaha if they lose their first game or game 2 vs. Baylor.
  • Iowa State now has a slight possibility of not making Omaha. It would take many different things occurring but it is possible. If Kansas beats Cincy/West Va and then beats Baylor, and if Iowa State loses to Texas/KState, Kansas will pass Iowa State on the seed list most likely, and Baylor likely would too (as their loss isn't as "bad" of a loss).
    • Root for Kansas to lose to Cincinnati or West Virginia, and if they don't, root for Baylor to beat Kansas. If ISU takes care of business, being placed in Omaha shouldn't be a concern, but I'm guessing they would only be 5-8 point favorites against Texas/KState, so it's not a guarantee.
    • If Marquette or Creighton drop their first Big East tournament game, that would help ISU as well.
  • I have New Mexico and Indiana State as my last 2 teams in the field, but that's with a major qualifier. Florida Atlantic and Dayton are getting in the field, so I just have them as placeholder automatic qualifiers from the American and the A-10. But the odds would say someone other than those two teams will win those conference tournaments. If they do, whomever the last 2 at-large teams are currently will fall out into the NIT.
  • Drake's resume really looks like a 9 or 10-seed resume to me, but I just assume most mid-major conference tournament winners are no better than an 11-seed in the eyes of the committee unless they have 2 or 3 losses.
  • These things usually get somewhat ironed out in conference tournaments, but I had no idea what to do with the last few spots today. A true "throw your hands up in the air" type reaction. From 38 (Virginia) to my 3rd team out (Villanova) feels incredibly tight. Any of those teams being left out or included at this stage wouldn't surprise me.
I'll probably have another update Thursday or Friday morning. A lot of automatic qualifiers are decided tonight, and then Wed/Thurs will be big day for the bubble teams.
Click to expand...

Now that Kansas won't be moving up any more, it looks like there's a real strong chance that it'll be ISU and Baylor in Omaha. I don't think you could get a better draw for home-count advantage for ISU (at least for the 2/3 seeds that'll be placed there) since Baylor would probably bring lower fan support than Marquette or KU.

It looks like that's predicated on Marquette finishing ahead of Creighton so that Marquette fills up Indy, and Creighton finishing ahead of Baylor so they take Baylor's Memphis spot. There are so many variables for the lower seed lines that it's hard to predict, but ideally we want teams like Wisconsin and Nebraska to get placed in other sites.
 
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NiceMarmot said:
Finally was able to update my bracket projection for the first time in about 5 days.

View attachment 125417

  • Marquette, ISU, Creighton, and Baylor at 7-10 in my seed list is about as close as it can possibly be. ISU/Baylor are the 2/3 seeds in the Big 12 tourney, Creighton/Marquette are the 2/3 seeds in the Big East tourney -- if they meet in the semis, those games should just be playoff games to determine who gets the 2-seed vs. the 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament. It isn't that simple, but sometimes, it should just be that simple. I don't think any of the teams, coaches, fanbases would have a problem with that.
  • With those 4 teams all passing Kansas, that pushes Kansas out of Omaha and to Pittsburgh. With Self potentially punting on the Big 12 tournament, don't be shocked if Kansas doesn't end up in Omaha if they lose their first game or game 2 vs. Baylor.
  • Iowa State now has a slight possibility of not making Omaha. It would take many different things occurring but it is possible. If Kansas beats Cincy/West Va and then beats Baylor, and if Iowa State loses to Texas/KState, Kansas will pass Iowa State on the seed list most likely, and Baylor likely would too (as their loss isn't as "bad" of a loss).
    • Root for Kansas to lose to Cincinnati or West Virginia, and if they don't, root for Baylor to beat Kansas. If ISU takes care of business, being placed in Omaha shouldn't be a concern, but I'm guessing they would only be 5-8 point favorites against Texas/KState, so it's not a guarantee.
    • If Marquette or Creighton drop their first Big East tournament game, that would help ISU as well.
  • I have New Mexico and Indiana State as my last 2 teams in the field, but that's with a major qualifier. Florida Atlantic and Dayton are getting in the field, so I just have them as placeholder automatic qualifiers from the American and the A-10. But the odds would say someone other than those two teams will win those conference tournaments. If they do, whomever the last 2 at-large teams are currently will fall out into the NIT.
  • Drake's resume really looks like a 9 or 10-seed resume to me, but I just assume most mid-major conference tournament winners are no better than an 11-seed in the eyes of the committee unless they have 2 or 3 losses.
  • These things usually get somewhat ironed out in conference tournaments, but I had no idea what to do with the last few spots today. A true "throw your hands up in the air" type reaction. From 38 (Virginia) to my 3rd team out (Villanova) feels incredibly tight. Any of those teams being left out or included at this stage wouldn't surprise me.
I'll probably have another update Thursday or Friday morning. A lot of automatic qualifiers are decided tonight, and then Wed/Thurs will be big day for the bubble teams.
Click to expand...
Curious after last nights game, would you put kentucky over the jayhawks as a three seed?
 
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mctallerton said:
Curious after last nights game, would you put kentucky over the jayhawks as a three seed?
Click to expand...

I haven't done a full update today, but I will tomorrow. As of right now, I'd still have Kansas ahead of Kentucky.
  • KPI/SOR Avg: Kansas 11.5, Kentucky 16.5
  • Kenpom/BPI Avg: Kansas 20, Kentucky 18.5
  • Q1A Wins: Kansas 5, Kentucky 5
  • Q1+Q2 Wins: Kansas 13, Kentucky 8
  • Kansas SOS and NCSOS are harder than Kentucky (1/34 vs. 55/168)
What could hurt Kansas is they're now under .500 in Q1 at 7-9 while Kentucky is 6-5. If Kentucky gets a couple more Q1 wins, they could/will pass KU.
 
audiokiwi said:
Now that Kansas won't be moving up any more, it looks like there's a real strong chance that it'll be ISU and Baylor in Omaha. I don't think you could get a better draw for home-count advantage for ISU (at least for the 2/3 seeds that'll be placed there) since Baylor would probably bring lower fan support than Marquette or KU.

It looks like that's predicated on Marquette finishing ahead of Creighton so that Marquette fills up Indy, and Creighton finishing ahead of Baylor so they take Baylor's Memphis spot. There are so many variables for the lower seed lines that it's hard to predict, but ideally we want teams like Wisconsin and Nebraska to get placed in other sites.
Click to expand...
I love the idea of Bama and Auburn being sent out to Spokane. Maybe they can carpool.
 
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