Bracketology 2024

This is Lunardi's bracket on ESPN that was updated today. He has some obvious bias and has had some brackets I dont agree with.

But if it did shake out like this, I would definitely take it. This looks like a pretty good bracket for us.

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This is Lunardi's bracket on ESPN that was updated today. He has some obvious bias and has had some brackets I dont agree with.

But if it did shake out like this, I would definitely take it. This looks like a pretty good bracket for us.

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I don't know if I could imagine a better bracket than this one.
 
I would imagine if we somehow finish 5-0 (not likely, but not impossible) and a few other teams falter (guaranteed to happen, 3 SEC teams are in front of us in Net ranking and two are guaranteed at least one loss) we would be top 4 in basically ever metric, B12T champ, and maybe 20% chance of B12 regular season champ.

That would make it a conversation. Maybe 10% chance of that happening and it's dependent on us bringing home one or two pieces of Big 12 hardware but it's possible.
Someone in another thread yesterday did the math on this with kenpom odds and it worked out to a ~1% chance, including us running the table and both Arizona and Tennessee dropping a game.

If all that happens I think we have a pretty good case for a #1 but even then we'll probably not get it because they won't want two Big 12 teams as #1's.
 
Someone in another thread yesterday did the math on this with kenpom odds and it worked out to a ~1% chance, including us running the table and both Arizona and Tennessee dropping a game.

If all that happens I think we have a pretty good case for a #1 but even then we'll probably not get it because they won't want two Big 12 teams as #1's.

I think 5-0 would have us top 4 in metrics but that doesn’t mean top 4 seed.

No teams outside big 12 could have 5 more games at the level big 12 teams have left.

It’s far flung but I’m guessing we’d be net 2nd or 3rd if we somehow went 5-0 with a Houston win.

Every other top team besides Houston and ISU is gonna play a bad team in first round of their conf tournament.
 
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We played Creighton in that secret scrimmage pre-season and only lost by six.
 
Ok, if KU wins tonight and we win Wednesday, who do we want to win the KU/Houston game? I’m going to assume KU, but that could easily knock us out of Omaha.
 
Speaking of that, it appears iowa may have played their way into the tourney.
Their odds haven't changed much since the MSU upset. 50/50 to make the tourney, but they really need to get to 20 (or 21) wins to have a realistic shot. If they get in at 20 wins, they are in the PIG.

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Posted this on the gambling page, but Parsed Sports has a free live bracket (very metrics driven and some of the seeding seems off, but still fun to check out as it seems to refresh every few hours. ISU as a 2 seed....but losing to Wake Forest in the second round. I think we would take that game.

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P5 & Big East NET Averages as of 3/5. Don't need a strong Non-conference SOS if you're in the Big 12.

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This is great comparison. Especially the top 9 numbers as that is who teams are competing against for position. The bottom dregs will beat someone now and then, but the top 9 is who you have to watch their other games and how they will impact your line. Shows how trash PAC is this year. Big East top 11 (entire league so just the average) is still above the PAC despite two teams below 200.
 
Posted this on the gambling page, but Parsed Sports has a free live bracket (very metrics driven and some of the seeding seems off, but still fun to check out as it seems to refresh every few hours. ISU as a 2 seed....but losing to Wake Forest in the second round. I think we would take that game.

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Cool site, but NO WAY we
1. lose our two remaining games
2. lose to WF by 19 points in 2nd round
 
Speaking of that, it appears iowa may have played their way into the tourney.
If they're in then Cincy should be as well. Similar overall record and computer ranking.

Cincy actually has better quality wins. Iowa's best win is @MichSt. And they have some bad losses as well.
 
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