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Bracketology 2024

loneCYClone said:
It looks like the MVC is going to be a 1 bid conference. Indiana state would likely be on the outside looking in, without winning the MVC tourney. Last year a similar Bradley team was NIT bound after winning the MVC regular then losing to Drake in the championship.
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I think it will depend on who they lose to. If they lose in the finals to Drake they will be in but I don't think they will survive an early exit.
 
Daserop said:
Can someone explain to me how / why Michigan State is getting so much love?

Against Quad 1: 4-8
Top 25 NET wins: #13 Baylor
Top 25 NET Losses: #2 Purdue, #4 Arizona, #10 Duke, #15 Illinois, #23 Wisconsin (twice),
Other Losses: @ #43 Nebraska, #52 James Madison, @ #53 Northwestern, #57 Iowa, #59 Ohio State, @ #77 Minnesota,
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Baylor would absolutely bury Sparty right now too.
 
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NiceMarmot said:
I have Drake as my 3rd team out right now. Indiana State would have a better case than Drake, just due to slightly better computer/resume metrics (but they're close). They would need to lose to the other in the MVC tournament final in my opinion to have a shot.

Ultimately, what I think will decide their chances is what happens in the American and A-10 conference tournaments. Every bubble team needs to root for Florida Atlantic and Dayton to win those, because those two teams are getting bids no matter what. If they do win their conference tourneys, two more at-large spots immediately open up.
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Agree. If Indiana State can survive until MVC final, it maintains good shot for at-large, BUT its seeding projected seeding (11 range, as you have it) is susceptible to bid-theft.

That Illinois State/Southern Illinois week did IS profile no favors. It was nearing the 9 seed range around that time, that territory is a lot safer for a mid-major.
 
Daserop said:
Can someone explain to me how / why Michigan State is getting so much love?

Against Quad 1: 4-8
Top 25 NET wins: #13 Baylor
Top 25 NET Losses: #2 Purdue, #4 Arizona, #10 Duke, #15 Illinois, #23 Wisconsin (twice),
Other Losses: @ #43 Nebraska, #52 James Madison, @ #53 Northwestern, #57 Iowa, #59 Ohio State, @ #77 Minnesota,
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AP and Coaches poll always has gigantic perma-bone for Big Ten in both sports even if they haven't been good in a quarter century like Big Ten basketball right now.

It's really that simple.

The ncaa tournament committee does a decent job cutting through it at least a little, but it can't help but affect everything. The college football playoff committee only exists because of this massive Big Ten homerism, we'd still have the BCS ranking formula instead of a small committee to select the 12 teams if the whole point wasn't to help the Big Ten.
 
1UNI2ISU said:
Can I offer you Indiana State/Iowa instead? Trees might score 150.

Agreed with above. I don't think Drake has the juice to get an at large. Best win is (N) Nevada and have an albatross of a loss to Stephen F Austin.
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I think you are right here. Heading into the MVC Tournament Drake has 30 qualifying games:

3-1 vs Q1
2-3 vs Q2
11-2 vs Q3
8-0 vs Q4

There is no margin for error with that schedule (Just like there wouldnt be for us if we were middle of the pack in the Big XII).

The loss that sunk Drake was probably that UNI loss. Win that and you are riding an 8 game win streak into St. Louis; won 10 of 11 with the only loss being at Indiana State.

If Indiana State loses in the finals of Arch Madness to Drake they should absolutely get a shot in Dayton. I feel like Drake should get a shot in Dayton over St. John's or Seton Hall but we know why that won't happen.
 
Cyballzz said:
I think you are right here. Heading into the MVC Tournament Drake has 30 qualifying games:

3-1 vs Q1
2-3 vs Q2
11-2 vs Q3
8-0 vs Q4

There is no margin for error with that schedule (Just like there wouldnt be for us if we were middle of the pack in the Big XII).

The loss that sunk Drake was probably that UNI loss. Win that and you are riding an 8 game win streak into St. Louis; won 10 of 11 with the only loss being at Indiana State.

If Indiana State loses in the finals of Arch Madness to Drake they should absolutely get a shot in Dayton. I feel like Drake should get a shot in Dayton over St. John's or Seton Hall but we know why that won't happen.
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Indiana State got shafted in how seeding worked out. They've got a really tough road just to get to Sunday.

Either Missouri State or Murray in their first games, two crazy athletic rosters with disasters for head coaches that have the talent to give them a scare. Belmont or UNI in the semifinal, the two hottest teams in the league with great coaches that have the ability to match their efficiency if they shoot the 3 well Drake/Bradley.

Drake and Bradley got each other and then vast nothingness.
 
Daserop said:
Can someone explain to me how / why Michigan State is getting so much love?

Against Quad 1: 4-8
Top 25 NET wins: #13 Baylor
Top 25 NET Losses: #2 Purdue, #4 Arizona, #10 Duke, #15 Illinois, #23 Wisconsin (twice),
Other Losses: @ #43 Nebraska, #52 James Madison, @ #53 Northwestern, #57 Iowa, #59 Ohio State, @ #77 Minnesota,
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I've looked at their schedule several times this year to figure that out, and still can't (other than because Izzo). Just lost at home to Iowa and Ohio State, and barely dropped in the brackets. There are definitely more deserving teams out there, but they'll squeak him in somehow.
 
1UNI2ISU said:
Indiana State got shafted in how seeding worked out. They've got a really tough road just to get to Sunday.

Either Missouri State or Murray in their first games, two crazy athletic rosters with disasters for head coaches that have the talent to give them a scare. Belmont or UNI in the semifinal, the two hottest teams in the league with great coaches that have the ability to match their efficiency if they shoot the 3 well Drake/Bradley.

Drake and Bradley got each other and then vast nothingness.
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Belmont has flipped the switch after that tire fire of a January. Them and UNI are the ones that could singlehandedly end all of this 2 bid talk.
 
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Look—- Khaal pointed out on twitter yesterday that during conference play we’ve lost 1 game, won 2, lost 1, won 3, lost 1, won 4, and lost 1 and we are in the process of winning 5. So it stands to reason we’ll lose the first game in the tournament. Which means we will not get a 1 seed. But we will then win 6.
 
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1UNI2ISU said:
Indiana State got shafted in how seeding worked out. They've got a really tough road just to get to Sunday.

Either Missouri State or Murray in their first games, two crazy athletic rosters with disasters for head coaches that have the talent to give them a scare. Belmont or UNI in the semifinal, the two hottest teams in the league with great coaches that have the ability to match their efficiency if they shoot the 3 well Drake/Bradley.
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UNI definitely has a legit chance to win it this weekend.

Also, if Mizzou St opens up after this weekend, JR Blount will likely be a candidate and given what I know about that job, he will probably accept if offered unlike Valpo last year. And if Drake opens up as well, same deal as Mizzou St.
 
cykadelic2 said:
UNI definitely has a legit chance to win it this weekend.

Also, if Mizzou St opens up after this weekend, JR Blount will likely be a candidate and given what I know about that job, he will probably accept if offered unlike Valpo last year. And if Drake opens up as well, same deal as Mizzou St.
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Missouri State is 99.999999% going to open. Dana Ford sounded like Dead Man Walking yesterday. The attendance has tanked and donations are drying up. They have to move on.

They're a sleeping giant at the mid-major level and I think Blount would be wise to take that one if he wants to be an HC. The resources are there. The arena and facilities are beautiful. It's almost incomprehensible that they haven't been to the tournament since Alford took them in 1999, absolute screw job of 2006 noted.
 
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CyPunch said:
Big East as of 3/4/2024

Locks: UConn, Marquette, Creighton

Probably in:

Work To Do: Villanova, St John's, Seton Hall, Providence

Probably Out: Butler

No Shot: Georgetown, DePaul, Xavier

Villanova picked up a massive road win at Providence likely pushing them into the field - for now. They have a huge week with a road game at fellow bubble team Seton Hall and a home game against Creighton. If they can win either, they can feel good about their standing heading into the Big East tourney.

St John's had the weekend off and finishes with DePaul and Georgetown. The Johnnies need to avoid bad losses there and they are likely guaranteed to be in the field with a first round Big East tourney win. Must prognosticators have St John's in Dayton as it stands now.

Seton Hall took a blowout defeat to UConn. Not great for the ol' metrics to lose by 30 when you're firmly on the bubble. Seton Hall finishes with two home games against Villanova and DePaul. A win over Villanova would be huge for the Pirates tourney hopes. A loss is going to make things difficult even with their impressive collection of top tier Big East wins.

Providence's 0-2 week flipped them from the right side to the wrong side of the bubble. They are now one of the first 2-4 teams out of the tournament depending on who you ask. They have a must win game at Georgetown and then finish with the opportunity for a marquee win with UConn coming to town. The AMP will be rocking for that one. If they can't knock off the defending champs, they're going to need at least a mini run at the Garden next week.

Things look pretty bleak for Butler. They did win at DePaul by margin on Saturday but that doesn't move the needle much. They're barely under consideration as maybe the 12th-14th team out right now. They need to beat Xavier at home and also make a run in the Big East tourney that involves knocking off a UConn, Marquette, or Creighton.
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This is why the Big12 is the best conference. The top 3 in the Big East are good to great but it gets very meh after that
 
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