Bracketology 2024

goody2012

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You just keep telling yourself that.

Note: I guarantee you are right, just seems to be 1 or 2 matchups in the first or second round where it's conveniently a must see matchup
Pollard has said adamantly that they do not consider storylines when doing the bracket...
 
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WhatchaGonnaDo

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Pollard has said adamantly that they do not consider storylines when doing the bracket...
right-yeah-right.gif
 

VeloClone

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I don't think its too preposterous. Iowa States non-con was always going to hurt us some. We juiced our NET and predictive metrics blowing out one of the weakest schedules in the country and are taking care of business in conference play against elite competition. But even with the conference gauntlet our SOR is 42nd. Wisconsin and Alabama are #2 and #3

In Q1&2
ISU 6-5
Alabama 7-7
Wisconsin 10-7

Depending on what you like more you could very reasonably argue any order of the 3, but again, I don't think its really outrageous for us to be4-3 in the same tier.
Just to put a little more granularity on this since the Committee does...

ISU
Q1a 4-3
Q1b 0-1
Q2a 0-1
Q2b 2-0
Q3 2-0
Q4 9-0

Bama
Q1a 1-5
Q1b 2-1
Q2a 4-1
Q2b 0-0
Q3 5-0
Q4 4-0

Wisky
Q1a 2-3
Q1b 4-2
Q2a 2-1
Q2b 2-1
Q3 1-0
Q4 5-0
 

cyclones500

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As for committee attempting to create storylines in bracketing & matchups ... you can find a good storyline just about anywhere. Extension of coaching trees (e.g., head coach v. former assistant, HC vs. former school), # of historical tournament matchups; former conference mates pre-realignment, high-octane offense vs. stifling-D ... on and on.

Those are just generic examples.

And even if there was some under-table initiative to do it, they certainly wouldn't waste time projecting a storyline past the first round, since it's possible neither or only one team advances.

If a pairing does have intriguing side notes, it's coincidence.
 

VeloClone

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Does Marquette really matter? No reason we can't be in the same regional. Kansas is the only team we can't play again, making it an either or situation.
Being at the same first weekend location doesn't mean you will play each other or even that you will end up in the same regional. And if the Big 12 ends up with more than 4 teams - pretty much a given - there will be more than one Big 12 team in a region. Heck the Big 12 could actually end up with 3 in a region.

Finally remember that ISU and KU have only faced off once this year. The rules now are dependent on how many times teams have met. If only once (where we are now) you can face each other pretty early (3rd round), if twice (if we face KU in the Big 12 Tourney) a little later (regional semifinal), if 3 times (can't happen this year) another round later (regional final).
 
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VeloClone

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Not if it's the closest site to them as an 11 seed. No protection in the criteria preventing that.
That depends on who is involved and how they interpret this:

To recognize the demonstrated quality of such teams, the committee shall not place teams seeded on the first five lines at a potential “home-crowd disadvantage” in the second round.

An 11 could face #3 in the second round so they would likely not put Nebraska in Omaha if the #3 was Baylor for example since Nebraska would have the "home-crowd disadvantage" if both teams advanced.
 
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jdoggivjc

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@ChrisMWilliams @brentblum
You mentioned on WED's podcast not knowing how first weekend sites are assigned for the MBB NCAAs. Here is how it works. The Committee completes its 1-68 Seed List. Then the top 16 teams on the list are assigned, in order, from 1 thru 16 to the closest available venue with two teams to each of the 8 sites. Using Joe Lundardi's latest Seed List as depicted in this tweet, the top 16 teams would be assigned to the following sites in order:

Purdue-Indy; UConn-Brooklyn; Houston-Memphis; Tennessee-Charlotte; Arizona-SLC; North Carolina-Charlotte; Marquette-Indy; Kansas-Omaha; Alabama-Memphis; Wisconsin-Omaha; Illinois-Pittsburgh; Iowa State-Pittsburgh; Auburn-Brooklyn; Baylor-SLC; Duke-Spokane; Dayton-Spokane.

Now you can argue how Lunardi has this Seed List ranked but this depicts how locations are assigned.

ISU is competing with KU, Marquette, Wisconsin, Illinois and possibly Baylor for the two top slots at Omaha. The higher ranked of Marquette, Wisconsin or Illinois will likely go to Indy. The other two teams would then compete with KU and ISU for the slots at Omaha.



Well, after this last week and a half Wisconsin isn't playing in Omaha.
 

AuH2O

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ISU just needs to keep winning and we should pass them pretty easily. Their schedule is really bad the rest of the way.

Only a chance for two more quality wins (IL at home and at Purdue. Both happen in March). Their next 5 games are against non-tourney teams, but some potential land mines (tomorrow at Rutgers and at Iowa :puke:).

We still have 6 games against tourney teams left (not counting the Big 12 Tournament). TCU at home, OU at home, BYU at home, Texas Tech at home, at Houston, and at Cincinnati. We win a handful of those and we should vault over Wisconsin
ISU has passed them in metrics, regardless of what a bad bracket guy like Lunardi has.
 

cykadelic2

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Being at the same first weekend location doesn't mean you will play each other or even that you will end up in the same regional. And if the Big 12 ends up with more than 4 teams - pretty much a given - there will be more than one Big 12 team in a region. Heck the Big 12 could actually end up with 3 in a region.

Finally remember that ISU and KU have only faced off once this year. The rules now are dependent on how many times teams have met. If only once (where we are now) you can face each other pretty early (3rd round), if twice (if we face KU in the Big 12 Tourney) a little later (regional semifinal), if 3 times (can't happen this year) another round later (regional final).
EDIT: "Each of the first four teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regions if they are seeded on the first four lines."
 
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cykadelic2

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That depends on who is involved and how they interpret this:

To recognize the demonstrated quality of such teams, the committee shall not place teams seeded on the first five lines at a potential “home-crowd disadvantage” in the second round.

An 11 could face #3 in the second round so they would likely not put Nebraska in Omaha if the #3 was Baylor for example since Nebraska would have the "home-crowd disadvantage" if both teams advanced.
That rule has been updated as follows: To recognize the demonstrated quality of such teams, the committee shall not place teams seeded on the first four lines at a potential “home-crowd disadvantage” in the first round (i.e. THU/FRI first round games)
 

VeloClone

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Need to keep in mind that the top 4 B12 teams on the Seed List will be assigned to different regions.
I don't know if this was the most current word on this but from their selection and bracketing procedures:

Each of the first three teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regions.
 

VeloClone

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That rule has been updated as follows: To recognize the demonstrated quality of such teams, the committee shall not place teams seeded on the first four lines at a potential “home-crowd disadvantage” in the first round (i.e. THU/FRI first round games)
Can you post a link to that most updated document? I seem to be looking at a dated one (no date on it ironically) but I would like to make sure I am looking at the current one.

TIA
 

Cyowa 14

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Looks like Lunardi made a mistake this morning, his words, and had us and Baylor flip flopped. He corrected it and now has us as a 3 seed (#12) and Baylor a 4 (#14) fwiw
 
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SolarGarlic

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@ChrisMWilliams @brentblum
You mentioned on WED's podcast not knowing how first weekend sites are assigned for the MBB NCAAs. Here is how it works. The Committee completes its 1-68 Seed List. Then the top 16 teams on the list are assigned, in order, from 1 thru 16 to the closest available venue with two teams to each of the 8 sites. Using Joe Lundardi's latest Seed List as depicted in this tweet, the top 16 teams would be assigned to the following sites in order:

Purdue-Indy; UConn-Brooklyn; Houston-Memphis; Tennessee-Charlotte; Arizona-SLC; North Carolina-Charlotte; Marquette-Indy; Kansas-Omaha; Alabama-Memphis; Wisconsin-Omaha; Illinois-Pittsburgh; Iowa State-Pittsburgh; Auburn-Brooklyn; Baylor-SLC; Duke-Spokane; Dayton-Spokane.

Now you can argue how Lunardi has this Seed List ranked but this depicts how locations are assigned.

ISU is competing with KU, Marquette, Wisconsin, Illinois and possibly Baylor for the two top slots at Omaha. The higher ranked of Marquette, Wisconsin or Illinois will likely go to Indy. The other two teams would then compete with KU and ISU for the slots at Omaha.


Yeah the CW hypothetical "would you rather be a 3 in Omaha or a 2 in Spokane?" didn't make sense
 
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clone52

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That depends on who is involved and how they interpret this:

To recognize the demonstrated quality of such teams, the committee shall not place teams seeded on the first five lines at a potential “home-crowd disadvantage” in the second round.

An 11 could face #3 in the second round so they would likely not put Nebraska in Omaha if the #3 was Baylor for example since Nebraska would have the "home-crowd disadvantage" if both teams advanced.
Isn't the 6-11 game the 2nd round?
 

CascadeClone

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To be fair it is such a HUGE undertaking to make their list of 68 team, seed them, follow all of the bracketing rules and assign them to first weekend locations that I don't think they have a lot of time, energy, or will to then cook in some preferred matchups.
I used to absolutely think they did those storybook matchups on purpose. But... you know how if you get like 30 people, its more likely than not that 2 will share a birthday? And it seems highly unlikely, but statistically, it actually is MORE likely? I think it is like that.

You're gonna have some coincidental matches from that effect. Especially given the amount of movement and overlap, as 500 said above.