ND's win at Louisville probably cements them as no lower worse than a 3 seed now and moves Louisville closer to the 4/5 line. Good news for ISU's seeding, IMO.
Bracketology 2015...
- Thread starter MartyFine
- Start date
Bracketmatrix currently has them as the worst 4 seed so I'm not so sure about that.
Lunardi has had ND higher than bracket matrix for quite some time; I actually thought he was a little premature ... until fairly recently the wins & RPI/SOS were more 4-seed-ish, comparatively. Hunch it'll be a solid 3, though, barring any bad losses.
I think their SOS is a major knock. I would say they could get a 3 but they are on the back end.
Can someone explain why most view Texas on the outside looking in with teams like Texas A&M, BYU or Temple as their competition? Several of those bubble but in resumes just don't seem better than Texas other than an extra win or two due to easier schedules. Texas generally has better wins and fewer bad losses.
I think UT's biggest hurdle is having soooo many opportunities against top-50 RPI teams, but winning few (the Baylor win was a boost).
It's a similar "problem" a team like BYU has (or had, pre-Gonzaga win), but on a different scale. BYU scheduled well in non-conference, but didn't get many signature wins. Then has a mostly weak league and had dropped most meaningful chances until winning at GU. But Texas doesn't have the sub-100 losses like BYU, either, and it's unfair to ignore that.
Edit: I'm not sure I would put BYU above Texas if I got down to the finer points, but gut feeling is committee might.
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Intriguing info on the process, regarding geographic balance at the regional level:
Palm: Geography and balancing the bracket
Palm: Geography and balancing the bracket
@tkbrackets has us back as a #3 and has UT in as well. Iowa still on the #8 line. https://twitter.com/tkbrackets
ND's resume looks significantly better than their RPI. Their seed will be a huge indicator of how much the committee looks at RPI this year. If they're a 4 or lower it likely means RPI really was critical in a lot of decisions.
As far as the Big 12 tournament goes, I assume we're hoping for
1) ISU to win it
2) Anyone but Baylor or OU to win.
If BU or OU wins the Big 12 tourney and we lose early it seems possible they switch spots with us and get the 4. Of course matchups more important than 3 vs 4 seed.
1) ISU to win it
2) Anyone but Baylor or OU to win.
If BU or OU wins the Big 12 tourney and we lose early it seems possible they switch spots with us and get the 4. Of course matchups more important than 3 vs 4 seed.
http://bracketmatrix.com/
We are a solid 3 as of tonight, but for Omaha we have a OU and Baylor problem. We could really help ourselves by beating one of those two again... Or just winning out. I don't know where to send Baylor. Omaha is closest, but it's still 700 miles away. Jacksonvill is 1000 miles away, but it's not Big 12 country like Omaha. It's a similar situation to ISU last year. The closest available site was in Texas, which is still Big 12 country, but sending ISU to Omaha just makes too much sense too me.
We have got to get ahead of OU and Baylor on the S curve.
My pod guesses on March 5th based off the matrix S curve in order to sell the most tickets. I know they are already sold out, but the committee still wants as many teams as close to home as possible
1 Kentucky - Louisville
1 Virginia - Charlotte
1 Duke - Charlotte
1 Villanova - Pittsburgh
2 Arizona - Portland
2 Wisconsin - Louisville
2 Gonzaga - Seattle
2 Kansas - Omaha
3 Maryland - Pittsburgh
3 Baylor - Jacksonville
3 Iowa State - Omaha
3 Oklahoma - Columbus
4 Notre Dame - Columbus
4 Utah - Portland
4 Witchita State/UNI - Seattle
4 North Carolina - Jacksonville
I switched out Louisville for UNC because they are screwed without Jones. And whoever wins the MVC on Saturday will get a 4. ISU really should've beat Baylor once, but Baylor losing would be very helpful for Omaha
We are a solid 3 as of tonight, but for Omaha we have a OU and Baylor problem. We could really help ourselves by beating one of those two again... Or just winning out. I don't know where to send Baylor. Omaha is closest, but it's still 700 miles away. Jacksonvill is 1000 miles away, but it's not Big 12 country like Omaha. It's a similar situation to ISU last year. The closest available site was in Texas, which is still Big 12 country, but sending ISU to Omaha just makes too much sense too me.
We have got to get ahead of OU and Baylor on the S curve.
My pod guesses on March 5th based off the matrix S curve in order to sell the most tickets. I know they are already sold out, but the committee still wants as many teams as close to home as possible
1 Kentucky - Louisville
1 Virginia - Charlotte
1 Duke - Charlotte
1 Villanova - Pittsburgh
2 Arizona - Portland
2 Wisconsin - Louisville
2 Gonzaga - Seattle
2 Kansas - Omaha
3 Maryland - Pittsburgh
3 Baylor - Jacksonville
3 Iowa State - Omaha
3 Oklahoma - Columbus
4 Notre Dame - Columbus
4 Utah - Portland
4 Witchita State/UNI - Seattle
4 North Carolina - Jacksonville
I switched out Louisville for UNC because they are screwed without Jones. And whoever wins the MVC on Saturday will get a 4. ISU really should've beat Baylor once, but Baylor losing would be very helpful for Omaha
And the sites this year suck. Way too many in the Ohio River valley and Great Northwest. Portland and Seattle is totally a waste of a site. That's a 6 hour drive between two sites on the far side of the country. Next year is much more uniform with 3 potential Big 12 sites of DSM, OKC, and St. Louis.
Looks like an accurate assessment.
As far as realistic scenarios, if ISU maintains 3 line, it's maybe 50-50 Omaha/Louisville w/ Wisconsin. If UW gets Omaha, then ISU is best served if it can stay above Baylor/OU to get Louisville, instead of going to Columbus or getting shipped west in the 4/5.
For fan-travel, there's also the dice-roll on less-than-ideal first weekend draw, yet still advancing, and being placed in the Houston region vs. a more-distant 2 seed (Gonzaga, Villanova) ... that's assuming seedings go chalk, which is yet another layer of uncertainty.
Agreed, there is a pretty big jump between 8 and 9 on the s curve. In fact so big that Iowa state didn't fall below a 3 after losing 2 as even at our peak we being pretty far yet from a 2. We fell but the difference between a 2 and a 4 is a lot this year.
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