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Bracket Predictions 2025-26

Things am rooting for:

  • ISU 2 seed in Midwest, STL, CHI, INDY
  • Nebraska 3 seed in MW but it won't matter as they lose in first round (not rooting against Hoiberg but I think the story of them being the only Power 4 team without a tourney win is too rich).
  • If Nebby does get over the hump, how fun would it be to have ISU-Neb (I think we win handily).
  • St Johns gets a 2 seed over UConn - why not? They beat them and I am always up for a Hurley tantrum.
  • Eastern Iowa misses on Sweet 16 AGAIN
  • Mad Fran takes Penn to the Sweet 16 which sets EIU beat writers on a frenzy
  • All SEC Schools lose in the first round.
  • No BIG or SEC schools in Final 8
 
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Allikat said:
Things am rooting for:

  • ISU 2 seed in Midwest, STL, CHI, INDY
  • Nebraska 3 seed in MW but it won't matter as they lose in first round (not rooting against Hoiberg but I think the story of them being the only Power 4 team without a tourney win is too rich).
  • If Nebby does get over the hump, how fun would it be to have ISU-Neb (I think we win handily).
  • St Johns gets a 2 seed over UConn - why not? They beat them and I am always up for a Hurley tantrum.
  • Eastern Iowa misses on Sweet 16 AGAIN
  • Mad Fran takes Penn to the Sweet 16 which sets EIU beat writers on a frenzy
  • All SEC Schools lose in the first round.
  • No BIG or SEC schools in Final 8
Click to expand...
Good list! No B1G or SEC teams in the Elite 8 is a slim change, but I'd love to see it!
 
My latest prediction. I took a closer look at wins against tourney teams for the top 16.

1773602621213.png

Last 4 In: Miami (OH), Missouri, SMU, Auburn
First 4 Out: Texas, Oklahoma, San Diego State, Indiana
 
My final bracket projection for this year.

1773608292978.png
  • Due to me putting Houston at 5 overall and UConn at 6 overall, Iowa State at 7 overall is in the Midwest as the 2-seed. UConn as the 6 can go to the East, which opens up the Midwest for ISU.
  • I think our most likely 3-seeds are Nebraska, Purdue, Illinois, or Virginia, with an outside chance at Vanderbilt.
  • If we're a 2 and Kentucky is a 7, I think there's a better than 50% chance they will be the 7-seed in our pod in St. Louis. Other options: St. Mary's, Miami FL, UCLA, Louisville, Villanova, with an outside chance at Utah State or Clemson.
  • 10-seed in our pod? A lot of options - Santa Clara, Saint Louis, NC State, Iowa, Texas A&M, Missouri, Miami (OH), VCU.
  • If we're not the 2-seed in the Midwest, expect us to be the 2-seed in the East or the 3-seed in the Midwest. I think we're fine for St. Louis either way, and if somehow we're not, we should be ahead of Nebraska for Oklahoma City as a backup.
  • Other notes:
    • I went with Auburn as the last team in. I know they're 17-16 and 4-13 in Q1 and 7-15 in the top 2 quadrants. But their three main competitors are Texas, San Diego State, and Oklahoma. Texas is 7-13 in Q1/2 while Oklahoma is 10-15. Neither are that much better than Auburn, who has the better SOS and the best win. Could they go with San Diego State? Of course. They are 9-10 in Q1/2 and a WAB of 45, just one spot behind Auburn's at 44. San Diego State's best wins though are all within the Mountain West, and the league is down this year.
    • Seems like everyone, including me, has SMU in the field. They would be the surprise exclusion that would make everyone wrong.
 
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My final prediction
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I did pretty poorly with my seeding.

I really think Vandy really got screwed over with a 5 seed. Every single metric had them as a 3 seed. 10-7 in quad 1. 17-8 in quad 1/2. 11 wins over teams in the tournament.

Alabama's metrics were lower across the board. 7-7 in quad 1. 16-9 in quad 1/2. 10 wins against teams in the tournament. Lost @Vandy

Arkansas predictive metrics were lower across the board, except SOR (8 versus 12). 8-8 in quad 1 and 16-8 in quad 1/2. 9 wins against tourney teams. Did beat Vandy twice, so if they were side by side, I'd bump them ahead of Vandy, but I think Vandy should have been a few spots higher.

Nebraskas metrics were lower across te board except SOR (10 versus 12). 9-6 in Quad 1 and 15-6 in Quad 1/2. 5 wins against tourney teams.

Gonzaga had better predictive metrics, but far worse results metrics. Only 7 wins against tourney teams. Due to the predictive metrics and overall win/loss, I could see keeping them ahead.

Virginia had worse predictive metrics and similar results metrics. They had 10 wins over tourney teams.
 
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