Bama will be in the playoff. They still could lose atleast one more if not two and still get in.
They can't lose 2 and still get in. Losing 1 they might get in, but maybe not.
I am assuming that Georgia and Cincinnati win out and get 2 spots.
If the Big 10 champ wins out, they will be in over a 2 loss Alabama. That includes Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State or Iowa.
An undefeated Oklahoma gets in over a 2 loss Alabama. Maybe even a 1 loss Oklahoma. I don't think Oklahoma does this though, I think they get at least 2 losses this year. A 2 loss Alabama probably gets in over a 1 loss Oklahoma State or Baylor, most likely. Not guarenteed, though.
A 1 loss Oregon might get in over a 2 loss Alabama.
A 2 loss Alabama gets in over a 1 loss Notre Dame.
Now lets talk a 2 loss Alabama and a 2 loss Iowa State. I think a lot would have to go right for Iowa State here. First off, we'd want 2 wins against Oklahoma (making them 11-2). That would make Oklahoma State 10-2. We'd also want Iowa to win out, but lose to Ohio State (finishing 11-2). Baylor would lose to Oklahoma and finish 10-2. Texas would finish 7-5. Kansas State would finish 7-5.
If that all happened, Oklahoma is still probably Top 10 and Okla State, Baylor and Iowa would all be top 15. No one else on Iowa States schedule is Top 25.
That makes Iowa State 4-2 against the playoff Top 15 and Top 25.
At best, Alabama has a win against an 8-4 unranked Florida (they would have beaten nobody good), a Top 15 Ole MIss, an 8-4 Top 25 Auburn.
That makes Alabama 1-2 against the Top 15 and 2-2 against the Top 25.
They still probably put Alabama in, but even ESPNs preditor only gives Alabama a 59% playoff probability versus 41% for Iowa State.