Big 12 vs. Pac 12

[isucy86]

Here's a Pac12 question. They are on the slide, but is this temporary slump or is it a unavoidable decline?

Not that long ago, USC and UCLA were a big deal, and the Pac12 was well regarded, on a par with the other conferences and maybe even above some. They were huge national brands. It's only the past 10ish years that their teams have floundered a bit and their media revenue has lagged.

I tend to think most things are cyclical. What if they get a couple good coaches at USC and UCLA and they start winning again? What if their new commish gets it right and either dumps or fixes the Pac12 network, and revenue rises? Remember Larry Scott was driving their bus into the ditch for a LONG time (11 years).

Honestly as I think about it, if ISU gets into the PAC12, it might be getting in at the bottom - in 10 years time it might be just as strong a conference as any other.

To me the biggest issue for the Pac 12 is most fans are loyal to their conference & regionally first. So if the Pac12 kicks off Oregon vs. USC at 11am CT (ouch for PT viewers), I am still more likely to watch Okie State vs. TCU. Or even a Big 10 game like Northwestern v. Minnesota.

IMO the Pac 12 can fix part of its issues by merging with the Big10 or current Big12. By playing more games against Midwest teams, whether home or road I think Pac12 viewership goes up significantly. I'd watch an Okie State v. Oregon game that kicks off at 9pm CT.

 

[dualthreat]

I already know this won't be a popular take by many but I'm going to call my shot. I think going west is a bad idea. If I'm buying stock in college football, I'm not putting my money in the PAC 12. I'm heading east. The future of college football will look a lot different than it does today and we should be planning now for it.

I think the safe bet today is to take a PAC 12 offer. I think it's also the wrong long-term play.

I think the Big 12 needs to go east. Toward the epicenter of college football. Many will laugh at this, but there is a lot more upside in four G5 schools than what the west coast schools have to offer.

I think the Big 12 should add Houston, Memphis, Cincy, and UCF. These schools, while being G5, have a lot of respect nationally. They also have tremendous fan support (WHILE BEING GROUP OF 5!) They have better fan support than the PAC 12 teams who are P5! Those four are sleeping giants. Sure today, they don't get anyone excited, but they have potential. And we need to think potential.

I think hitching the wagon to the west coast looks good TODAY but they are headed in the wrong direction-- fast. The AD's out there are broke. No one watches CFB. No one goes to games. And they already have everything they could want. They are maxed out. Go EAST guys. Go EAST.

 

[HFCS]

I already know this won't be a popular take by many but I'm going to call my shot. I think going west is a bad idea. If I'm buying stock in college football, I'm not putting my money in the PAC 12. I'm heading east. The future of college football will look a lot different than it does today and we should be planning now for it.

I think the safe bet today is to take a PAC 12 offer. I think it's also the wrong long-term play.

I think the Big 12 needs to go east. Toward the epicenter of college football. Many will laugh at this, but there is a lot more upside in four G5 schools than what the west coast schools have to offer.

I think the Big 12 should add Houston, Memphis, Cincy, and UCF. These schools, while being G5, have a lot of respect nationally. They also have tremendous fan support (WHILE BEING GROUP OF 5!) They have better fan support than the PAC 12 teams who are P5! Those four are sleeping giants. Sure today, they don't get anyone excited, but they have potential. And we need to think potential.

I think hitching the wagon to the west coast looks good TODAY but they are headed in the wrong direction-- fast. The AD's out there are broke. No one watches CFB. No one goes to games. And they already have everything they could want. They are maxed out. Go EAST guys. Go EAST.

The 4 California schools kind of are what they are and will always be that way (prestigious institutions with big brands and casual fan bases), but I actually think the PNW four teams and AZ/ASU/CO/Utah have tons of potential to be big when you look at those states exploding populations and only three NFL teams between the five states. Utah is the fastest growing state in the country.

 

[isucyclones2010]

Just to supplement the OP's link, I posted this yesterday in a thread on the premium board so I thought I'd include it here well. Here were the average home game attendances in 2017, 2018, and 2019 in rank order between the Pac 12 and 7 Big 12 refugees in the Central Time Zone. I like where we sit there...now let's try to get 2021 to avg 61,500.

 

[CyrideAllstar]

You're really making the case why it makes sense for the Pac 12 to hook up with remaining Big 12 schools.

And if you look at the entirety of the Pac 12 commish's statements, not just the "we're fine as it is" snippets, you'll see that he's hardly hiding his intentions of bringing in more schools.

And you know who will be will positioned? The biggest of those public schools, with AAU status, a Top 10 football team, 3rd highest football attendance of all combined Pac 12 and remaining Big 12 schools, and a legendary basketball arena.

Finally we can throw down with usc to see who really owns the cardinal and gold.

 

[cyrocksmypants]

To me the biggest issue for the Pac 12 is most fans are loyal to their conference & regionally first. So if the Pac12 kicks off Oregon vs. USC at 11am CT (ouch for PT viewers), I am still more likely to watch Okie State vs. TCU. Or even a Big 10 game like Northwestern v. Minnesota.

IMO the Pac 12 can fix part of its issues by merging with the Big10 or current Big12. By playing more games against Midwest teams, whether home or road I think Pac12 viewership goes up significantly. I'd watch an Okie State v. Oregon game that kicks off at 9pm CT.

They would absolutely not kick off the 11am slot with Oregon vs USC. The whole appeal of adding some Big 12 teams is to have teams not on the west coast that can fill that slot they couldn’t fill before. All of the early games would be on the eastern part of the conference.

 

[t-noah]

You can also look at TV viewership last year. ISU was similar to Oregon, USC and UW, and crushed the rest.

Eyeballs and ad value are a big problem for the PAC that ISU would help with.

I still think BIG might be interested in adding 2 (ISU one of them), as a way of keeping college football healthy.

The PAC adding the entire orphaned 8 or a select 4, would be a good stimulus to the PAC I think. I would want to watch a lot more PAC games for sure. It would bring the entire (almost) midwest to the PAC party. Just need a media provider to step up.

 

[isucy86]

They would absolutely not kick off the 11am slot with Oregon vs USC. The whole appeal of adding some Big 12 teams is to have teams not on the west coast that can fill that slot they couldn’t fill before. All of the early games would be on the eastern part of the conference.

Agreed. But not the point I was making. I was referring more to most fans having a strong regional affinity in watching college football. You can put the 2 biggest Pac12 brands (Oregon & USC) on TV (whether at 11a, 2:30p or 7p) and I think most people who live in the Midwest will watch Big 12 or Big 10 game first, even if the teams aren't at the same level.

IMO the Pac 12 teams would experience a significant boost by joining the Big 10 (and current Big 12) because Midwest fans might have an interest in the Big 10 (or big 12) team.

 

[cyrocksmypants]

Agreed. But not the point I was making. I was referring more to most fans having a strong regional affinity in watching college football. You can put the 2 biggest Pac12 brands (Oregon & USC) on TV (whether at 11a, 2:30p or 7p) and I think most people who live in the Midwest will watch Big 12 or Big 10 game first, even if the teams aren't at the same level.

IMO the Pac 12 teams would experience a significant boost by joining the Big 10 (and current Big 12) because Midwest fans might have an interest in the Big 10 (or big 12) team.

So you think people will only watch regionally then say the Pac should join the Big Ten or 12 so more people might have an interest in their games? That makes no sense. If the Pac joined the Big 12, wouldn’t Oregon vs USC still be a regional viewing?

 

[isucy86]

So you think people will only watch regionally then say the Pac should join the Big Ten or 12 so more people might have an interest in their games? That makes no sense. If the Pac joined the Big 12, wouldn’t Oregon vs USC still be a regional viewing?

Not only, but I think they lean that way.

If the Pac 12 joined the Big 10 or Big12 then Midwest sports fans would have a greater interest in West Coast games. Just like I am more likely today to watch a Texas, Baylor or TT game because ISU will play them AND whether they win/lose impacts ISU in the standings.

For some strange reason if Washington, Stanford, Cal and Arizona were added to the Big12 for the 2021 season. I would take a much bigger interest in their games this fall. Whether they were playing an existing Big 12 team or if Cal & Washington played (even in the 9pm CT time slot). Who wins and loses may impact where ISU falls in the conference standings.

 

[LLCoolCY]

I already know this won't be a popular take by many but I'm going to call my shot. I think going west is a bad idea. If I'm buying stock in college football, I'm not putting my money in the PAC 12. I'm heading east. The future of college football will look a lot different than it does today and we should be planning now for it.

I think the safe bet today is to take a PAC 12 offer. I think it's also the wrong long-term play.

I think the Big 12 needs to go east. Toward the epicenter of college football. Many will laugh at this, but there is a lot more upside in four G5 schools than what the west coast schools have to offer.

I think the Big 12 should add Houston, Memphis, Cincy, and UCF. These schools, while being G5, have a lot of respect nationally. They also have tremendous fan support (WHILE BEING GROUP OF 5!) They have better fan support than the PAC 12 teams who are P5! Those four are sleeping giants. Sure today, they don't get anyone excited, but they have potential. And we need to think potential.

I think hitching the wagon to the west coast looks good TODAY but they are headed in the wrong direction-- fast. The AD's out there are broke. No one watches CFB. No one goes to games. And they already have everything they could want. They are maxed out. Go EAST guys. Go EAST.

Adding isn't as easy as just sending the invite.
I just read the AAC schools for instance require 27 month notice and 10 penalty fee. UCONN ended up settling for 1 year 17 million. Those schools would also be signing into a very shaky B12 situation.
Then there's the issue that when the new media rights are sold it would be 1/4th(?) of what ISU is currently getting (after 2025).
A major reason the Big 12 didn't add a few years back was due to ESPN determine those schools didn't add value to the Big 12 and they wouldn't increase the money and that was with TX/OU.

 

[tsirnickesqcy]

I already know this won't be a popular take by many but I'm going to call my shot. I think going west is a bad idea. If I'm buying stock in college football, I'm not putting my money in the PAC 12. I'm heading east. The future of college football will look a lot different than it does today and we should be planning now for it.

I think the safe bet today is to take a PAC 12 offer. I think it's also the wrong long-term play.

I think the Big 12 needs to go east. Toward the epicenter of college football. Many will laugh at this, but there is a lot more upside in four G5 schools than what the west coast schools have to offer.

I think the Big 12 should add Houston, Memphis, Cincy, and UCF. These schools, while being G5, have a lot of respect nationally. They also have tremendous fan support (WHILE BEING GROUP OF 5!) They have better fan support than the PAC 12 teams who are P5! Those four are sleeping giants. Sure today, they don't get anyone excited, but they have potential. And we need to think potential.

I think hitching the wagon to the west coast looks good TODAY but they are headed in the wrong direction-- fast. The AD's out there are broke. No one watches CFB. No one goes to games. And they already have everything they could want. They are maxed out. Go EAST guys. Go EAST.

Won’t work. Will devalue ISU as an institution and in the long run lose it more money than the lower tv payout even would. Want to associate with the most prestigious universities you can not just small schools in a move for pure football. PAC is leaps and bounds above adding Houston, Memphis, Cincy etc.

 

[cyrocksmypants]

Not only, but I think they lean that way.

If the Pac 12 joined the Big 10 or Big12 then Midwest sports fans would have a greater interest in West Coast games. Just like I am more likely today to watch a Texas, Baylor or TT game because ISU will play them AND whether they win/lose impacts ISU in the standings.

For some strange reason if Washington, Stanford, Cal and Arizona were added to the Big12 for the 2021 season. I would take a much bigger interest in their games this fall. Whether they were playing an existing Big 12 team or if Cal & Washington played (even in the 9pm CT time slot). Who wins and loses may impact where ISU falls in the conference standings.

So the Pac12 would have a boost by joining the Big Ten or 12 but the Big Ten or 12 wouldn’t have a boost by joining the Pac 12? I’m so confused.

 

[cymonw1980]

This may have been discussed elsewhere but have not seen it...

Why a Big 12-Pac-12 Scheduling Alliance Would Also Work

As HCS reported earlier, Big 12 commissioner, Bob Bowlsby, met with Pac-12 commissioner, George Kliavoff, to discuss a possible of a merger of the conferences or scheduling alliance. The first question that popped into my mind regarding a possible scheduling alliance was how would that work...

www.heartlandcollegesports.com

I think this is a really interesting way to think about options (especially in the short term for the B12 schools).

If you are one of the remaining 8, yes, if an offer comes from another power conference you will make it work out. But as we have seen with tx/ou, even with all the money and new money they will be getting, it's not that easy to just walk away... technically B12 owns each teams media rights through 2025 so exactly how a team gets out of that will be interesting to watch (I am sure Clemson, FSU are watching closely).

So, if you are in a holding pattern for 2-3 yrs after ou/tx leave, and while you play out the current deal (through 2025), the remaining 8 could just keep it the "Big 8"... as outlined in the article, the PAC would each play 8 conf games +2 vs. "Big 8" (2x12 = 24 gams ttl), and the Big 8 would play 7 conf +3 vs. PAC (3 x 8 = 24 gms ttl).

If you no longer play tx/ou, every "Big 8" team will need to bolster their schedule. Playing 10 games against Big 8/PAC 12 teams, maybe keeping the OSU v. OU, Tx vs. TT (as part of the agreement when OU, Tx exit) and potentially creating a BYU scheduling arrangement (similar to ND's with the ACC) could create some value for the league's games. Basically, you have to eliminate games vs. UNI, etc. and make sure that every game you play is against a P5 or at least a brand that will draw some eyeballs.

If ISU removes OU/tx/uni/unlv and adds say Col, Utah, Wash, and BYU how much do their ratings suffer? How much would their overall sos suffer?

I think this makes more sense than a merger of the two leagues since PAC will have reservations about adding more teams with out getting a signature brand (imho).

 

[surly]

This is pretty simple to me. If ISU gets a B10 invite, you won't, but if you do, you go.

Next, if the P12/B12 reach some sort of alignment/merger, we might, you join.

Then, if that doesn't happen, the B12 adds some teams, BYU, and maybe Cincinnati, you stay.

Finally, worst case, it all falls apart and only God knows where ISU and the rest of us fall out.

 

[AlumfromAmes]

This is pretty simple to me. If ISU gets a B10 invite, you won't, but if you do, you go.

Next, if the P12/B12 reach some sort of alignment/merger, we might, you join.

Then, if that doesn't happen, the B12 adds some teams, BYU, and maybe Cincinnati, you stay.

Finally, worst case, it all falls apart and only God knows where ISU and the rest of us fall out.

Agree, for the most part. I think the merger is probably the most likely option. The Big XII schools do provide good value to the PAC 12 and the merger results in a conference that is greater than its separate pieces.

Maybe it’s overly optimistic, but I just don’t think the consumer wants a field of just 20-30 college teams that have a chance at the national title. We love to see David beat Goliath and we want to know that our local team has a shot.

In the end, whenever that comes, I have to think that ISU, KSU, OSU, Texas Tech, & KU are all in the mix somewhere.

 

[CascadeClone]

This may have been discussed elsewhere but have not seen it...

So, if you are in a holding pattern for 2-3 yrs after ou/tx leave, and while you play out the current deal (through 2025), the remaining 8 could just keep it the "Big 8"... as outlined in the article, the PAC would each play 8 conf games +2 vs. "Big 8" (2x12 = 24 gams ttl), and the Big 8 would play 7 conf +3 vs. PAC (3 x 8 = 24 gms ttl).

I generally agree this would be the ideal way to start things off for a few years. You have more leverage for better settlement with OuT, and a few years to discuss how a merger might work while still being separate. And the Pac gets to find out if the central time games do bring more viewers/value like we all think they will. It's basically "living together" before marriage.

One thing tho, I don't think the Pac would want to change their schedule to 2 games each vs Big12, at least in year 1. That's asking a lot I think. But even if each plays 1, that's 12 of the 16 games the Big12 needs; finding 4 more against P5 teams (BYU, bedlam, etc as you mention) should be doable, even in 2022.

Longer term it becomes more divisional with just a few cross division games. How that looks depends a lot on if its 16, 18, or 20 teams. But that's 3-4 years away yet I think.