Okay, so with 8 remaining games there were "only" 256 scenarios to plug into MRED. I did cheat a little bit and assumed that the results of the Utah/UCF game will not have an impact. I did do this manually, so there may be a few errors but it should be pretty close. This
does not account for probability of winning for any team - this is strictly looking at all potential outcomes and the resulting CCG matchup.
Summary:
- The OSU/CU game won't really tell us anything on Friday. There are a few more scenarios that put ISU in the CCG if OSU wins, but in all it's just not that important. However an OSU victory would increase the scenarios where ISU is the home team in the CCG.
- There are 6 scenarios in which ISU could beat KSU and still not make the CCG. All include victories by Colorado, Texas Tech, Arizona State and Houston. As long as that specific combination does not happen, ISU will be in the CCG by beating KSU. Root for BYU and WVU next weekend - as long as one of them wins, we avoid the Doomsday Scenario.
- If somehow those four teams all win, then we need Baylor AND Cincinnati to win to give us a Colorado @ ISU championship.
- There are 0 scenarios where ISU loses to KSU and still makes the CCG. ISU must win.
- The most frequent CCG scenario is ISU @ ASU, followed by BYU @ ISU. There are some weird things that could result in Baylor @ ISU or WVU @ ISU.
There's a path for a WVU @ Kansas CCG. Typo - was KSU not Kansas.
Updated to incorporate early money lines (charts at bottom)
I used the aggregated lines from VSiN. I'm not a bettor so I don't know how valid that is, but they were one of the two odds aggregators listed on Circa Sports. I converted the moneylines to "implied probability" for each team, then combined those with the scenarios to determine the likelihood of each scenario. From that I can add up the likelihoods for each scenario that is favorable to get ISU's overall chances at least according to sportsbooks.
- ISU is 53.2% to make the championship; about 3X more likely to do so as the "visitor."
- Our most likely opponents in order are Arizona State, BYU, and Colorado.
Outcomes as of Sunday, 11/24
View attachment 138487
Outcome after Friday's OSU/CU game:
View attachment 138488
The 6 "Doomsday Scenarios" for ISU:
View attachment 138489
Scenarios for each team:
(Found a typo that incorrectly said Kansas had a path. Should have been KSU).
View attachment 138501
Possible CCG scenarios:
(Found a typo that incorrectly said Kansas had a path. Should have been KSU).
View attachment 138503
Updated Charts
| Team | Money Line | Implied Probability |
|---|
| | |
| Oklahoma State | 541 | 13.3% |
| Colorado | -805 | 86.7% |
| Utah | 265 | 25.2% |
| UCF | -333 | 74.8% |
| TCU | -138 | 56.0% |
| Cincinnati | 117 | 44.0% |
| Kansas | -104 | 48.6% |
| Baylor | -116 | 51.4% |
| Arizona | 262 | 25.5% |
| Arizona State | -329 | 74.5% |
| Texas Tech | -167 | 60.5% |
| WVU | 141 | 39.5% |
| ISU | -143 | 56.7% |
| KSU | 120 | 43.3% |
| BYU | -583 | 83.0% |
| Houston | 414 | 17.0% |
View attachment 138519
View attachment 138518
