2026-2027 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
#18 now.
The Big 12 is probably down a little at the top but will still be a grind.
The 47/6 split is fairly close to the 53/2 split from Rob Jones' senior year.
Gonna struggle to score sometimes compared to the past two seasons but not nearly as much as the first two TJ teams. But they're coming at you with a tire iron and a bad attitude on defense.
The Big 12 is probably down a little at the top but will still be a grind.
The 47/6 split is fairly close to the 53/2 split from Rob Jones' senior year.
Gonna struggle to score sometimes compared to the past two seasons but not nearly as much as the first two TJ teams. But they're coming at you with a tire iron and a bad attitude on defense.
I think that's a fair assessment at this time. But I don't think the offense will end as 47th next season. ISU lost key offensive players each of the last couple years, and each time different players have stepped in to fill the void.
@Sigmapolis - just curious to see if you have the same data for this time a year ago? Wondering how the data aligned prior to the season vs the end of season for the 25-26 year
The last one I archived was 49/2 (#18 overall) before the season started.
Ended up 23/5 (#7 overall).
https://cyclonefanatic.com/forum/th...rojections-thread.292452/page-2#post-10062898
The defense was slightly overestimated while the offense was significantly underestimated.
Still wish we'd gotten to see what the team could have done in March w/ J-Jeff healthy.
Not saying we're beating Michigan but I'd have liked a chance to take them on.
It's hard to remember, but there was a time when Jefferson was underrated, or at least unknown to most everyone who doesn't pay attention to the Big 12. If we think he's the comp for Singleton, there's a small chance that pleasantly surprising post play or general playmaking opens things up for the offense, and it ends up better than projected.
I don't know what to make of next season's team. I think Toure will still have some growing pains playing true PG. Three-point shooting will be more of a crap shoot, not that the team will be bad at shooting. The one thing that makes me hopeful is if a sh**** Iowa team that beat one good opponent in the regular season and limped into the Big Ten tournament can make an Elite Eight, just get into the NCAA tournament with a 4-8 seed and let's see.
The last one I archived was 49/2 (#18 overall) before the season started.
Ended up 23/5 (#7 overall).
https://cyclonefanatic.com/forum/th...rojections-thread.292452/page-2#post-10062898
The defense was slightly overestimated while the offense was significantly underestimated.
Still wish we'd gotten to see what the team could have done in March w/ J-Jeff healthy.
Not saying we're beating Michigan but I'd have liked a chance to take them on.
I thought I'd made my peace with it over a month ago, but the other day I was thinking about the Tech game in the Big 12 tournament because I went to that, and all the sudden felt pain again. I don't think Tennessee was beating that Iowa State team, as well as they played in Kansas City.
But I shouldn't derail a projections thread. Onward
Watch out for Leon Bond. 6'5" but a really big wingspan. Quick, gets steals, blocks. Scores from all over. Good 3 point shooter, can drive and finish, can guard PG through bigger wings. Played in a slow offense at UNI as well as the pack line defense. Translate that to Iowa State's aggressive defense and transition offense and look out.
I think he will start at the 3 or possibly 4 and I think there is a decent chance he leads the team in scoring. I think by January we'll be talking about him being All Big 12 and an NBA draft pick.
I think he will start at the 3 or possibly 4 and I think there is a decent chance he leads the team in scoring. I think by January we'll be talking about him being All Big 12 and an NBA draft pick.
I don't have a way offhand to quantify this assertion.
But I would bet if you constructed some metric on which programs have most overperformed or underperformed their NCAA tournament seeds over the years, Iowa State would be near the top (and probably Iowa during the Fran years until the recent hot little run two months ago) with underperformance.
Going as far back as the Fred era...
We've seen two #2 seeds not make the Elite Eight.
We saw a #3 seed crash out in the first round.
We've had a bunch of lower seeds duck out in the first weekend.
The only counterexample is the Brockington team (#11 seed to Sweet Sixteen).
We've never had a really good team (#3 or better seed or so) make that deep run to the Final Four or a "meh" team make a deeper run outside of those two magical games in Milwaukee in 2022.
I wish we'd finally have that good-to-great team that overperforms in March finally because when we do look out! It was fun when the mediocre-to-bad 2022 team did it, but I wish we had more.
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I don't think so. I don't know how you'd make them.
Anybody else have any ideas?
There was a guy out in Oregon that used to be on CWs show when he was on KXNO with Peterson. He used to have a way of ranking coaches in football. Can't remember the guys name but he was a character. He always had Heacock ranked really high as a defensive coach. The guy also ran a weed farm. I wonder if he did basketball as well?
Jefferson has to be the biggest "hit" transfer of the "modern" (post-McDermott) era of Iowa State basketball. When we landed him, I thought he was just going to be another post body (not a bad player but not a superstar) alongside Dishon Jackson and Brand Chatfield to restock the frontcourt to go along with the stacked guard court. Turns out the other big men were "meh" and Jefferson was a future All-American.
We were also reeling from the loss of J'Vonne Hadley at the time when Jefferson committed relatively late. Louisville bought him out from under us with a big boost of NIL money. Hadley would have been nice to have that year for guard/wing depth, especially when Gilbert and Tamin went down.
Who knew the "afterthought" would be the greatest Cyclone transfer of them all. And I mean that over even Royce, Clyburn, Kane, Nader, Burton, Shayok, Brockington, Gilbert, and Curtis Jones.
I have a suspicion both Jaquan Johnson and Ryan Prather are going to end up playing a good amount of PG next season. I think Toure is handed the keys but probably has a relatively short leash.
I don't think any of the forwards have much Niang/Jefferson "point forward" potential.
Career % for the guys who have played college ball.
37.5% (141/376) = Prather
37.5% (69/184) = Johnson
37.0% (54/146) = Batemon
35.7% (60/168) = Bond
33.3% (2/6) = Mitchell
31.3% (26/83) = Toure
23.5% (8/34) = Manning
16.7% (9/54) = Singelton
#DIV/0! (0/0) = Rise
#DIV/0! (0/0) = Pleta
0.0% (0/4) = Buchanan (lol couldn't help myself)
I'm not particularly concerned with outside shooting with those numbers. Sure there's no superlative guy like Milan last season, but there's a lot of solid guys and one potential sniper in Batemon.
I do agree with what you're saying, but for me, it's Royce above all others. For the time, and for what that team needed, Royce was dominant. I'm not sure that team is above .500 without him.
We got two years out of J-Jeff.
He wasn't a nightmare off the court like Royce was.
It's a miracle Royce didn't blow up in Fred's face some way or another.
J-Jeff got higher individual honors from the conference and nationally.
Yeah Royce was impactful... but I wouldn't pick him over J-Jeff.
I have concerns about Prather and Johnson getting good shots up—not blocked, not tipped, not airballs because of a large hand in their faces—against teams like last season’s Cincinnati or TCU, until they adjust to P4 ball. But I agree with 99% of what you’re saying
I can see that "little guy" concern with Johnson (5'9") but Prather is 6'5".
I'll admit I haven't watched any film to study the speed, height, or angle of their release.
Steph Curry is 6'2", which is short for an NBA PG but... we all know what kind of shooter he is.
Both guys look great on film. Prather’s shot looks really good to me.I can see that "little guy" concern with Johnson (5'9") but Prather is 6'5".
I'll admit I haven't watched any film to study the speed, height, or angle of their release.
Steph Curry is 6'2", which is short for an NBA PG but... we all know what kind of shooter he is.
Cyclonepride
Thought Police
Jefferson certainly is on the top line of transfers overall, though I am a junkie and watch a lot of late night west coast hoops, so I thought he had a ton of potential coming in.
When I was watching him at St. Mary's, I couldn't figure out if he was a huge guard or a forward with the way he handled and passed, but also banged it inside.
Yeah, it is Royce. I think it is not really close, even for JJeff.
Dave Bartoo. He was awesome, I don't think he does anything for basketball but I haven't looked for any of his stuff for some time.
Las Vegas MTE pre-season Torvik rankings for "our" side of the bracket.
#16 Tennessee
#35 Maryland
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#53 San Diego St.
#17 Iowa St.
#18 St. John's
#43 Oregon
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#10 Louisville
#24 Texas Tech
#16 Tennessee
#35 Maryland
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#53 San Diego St.
#17 Iowa St.
#18 St. John's
#43 Oregon
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#10 Louisville
#24 Texas Tech
