2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

Is loosing that game close better than winning in terms of the ncaas? Feels like that effort locks the Clones in at a 2 seed, and I don't feel like a win and winning the big 12 tournament would have been enough to move them to a 1 seed. 4 games in 4 day against good teams is brutal. Houston is very physical, and Lipsey and Jefferson already are banged up.
Probably about the same metrics-wise...but the way we came out of that game...sort of banged up...playing Houston would have potentially jeopardized our NCAA chances with an injury.
...and it's spelled losing. Not loosing.
 
There’s just no way to ignore the ISU win in Mackey. Plus, Purdue is out of time. If they play tomorrow, it won’t matter for seeding
I agree

But…..

Never underestimate the Power of the Darkside.

The committee will stand on TV and spew whatever data points enable their narrative.

They change year to year.

“We just felt the way Purdue is playing and how they won games that matter during tournament time , against top teams, trumps a non-conference game 3 months ago”
 
At what point do we ever worry about Purdue knocking us down to a three?

If they win their tournament, the committee will salivate
Winning the big 12 tourney has never moved isu up a seed. I don’t understand why Houston isn’t getting more consideration for a 1 - they lost 3 games in a row to the best team in cbb and 2 teams that never lose at home. Florida has just beaten up on a overrated SEC
 
I agree

But…..

Never underestimate the Power of the Darkside.

The committee will stand on TV and spew whatever data points enable their narrative.

They change year to year.

“We just felt the way Purdue is playing and how they won games that matter during tournament time , against top teams, trumps a non-conference game 3 months ago”

I mean anything can happen, that’s just sports. I just think it’s unlikely Purdue can get past ISU.
 
Winning the big 12 tourney has never moved isu up a seed. I don’t understand why Houston isn’t getting more consideration for a 1 - they lost 3 games in a row to the best team in cbb and 2 teams that never lose at home. Florida has just beaten up on a overrated SEC
Oh the Gators……a month ago the narrative was “the SEC Champion HAS to be a 1-Seed”.

And Florida lost to TCU.
 
I agree

But…..

Never underestimate the Power of the Darkside.

The committee will stand on TV and spew whatever data points enable their narrative.

They change year to year.

“We just felt the way Purdue is playing and how they won games that matter during tournament time , against top teams, trumps a non-conference game 3 months ago”
Head to Head only matters when it benefits the B1G, otherwise it's just an outdated data point.
 
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Let me preface by saying I believe the cake is already baked so it doesn't really matter.

ISU is now NET 7 and 8-7 in Q1 and 18-7 in Q1+Q2. ISU's SOS is no longer an issue since after these last two Q1 games it is a respectable 28.

Gonzaga is NET 6 but their SOS of 85 sticks out like a sore thumb. Their Portland loss is Q3 and has almost slid to Q4.

Ill is NET 8 with a 17 SOS. 7-8 in Q1. They have played 12 Q1a games.

Purdue is NET 9. They are 10-8 in Q1 with a SOS of 7.

UConn is NET 10 but their SOS is 59 and those Q1 and Q2 losses (1 each) really hurt.

MSU is NET 11. They are 14-7 in Q1+Q2 and 9-6 in Q1, but 3-5 in Q1a and have a Q2 loss.

Virginia is NET 12 but has a SOS of 70 and have a Q2 loss.

kNU is NET 13. Their SOS is better at 33 and are 9-6 in Q1. However they are 3-6 in Q1a. No losses below Q1a.
 
2 or 3, with Illinois specifically, doesn’t matter much if the both end up in midwest. Would be sweet 16 in Chicago (illinois home game). I want ISU 2 in Midwest, and illinois banished to somewhere else
I’m pretty sure we would bring more fans to Chicago than Illinois will. Illinois doesn’t have a very sports-focused alumni base.
 
Let me preface by saying I believe the cake is already baked so it doesn't really matter.

ISU is now NET 7 and 8-7 in Q1 and 18-7 in Q1+Q2. ISU's SOS is no longer an issue since after these last two Q1 games it is a respectable 28.

Gonzaga is NET 6 but their SOS of 85 sticks out like a sore thumb. Their Portland loss is Q3 and has almost slid to Q4.

Ill is NET 8 with a 17 SOS. 7-8 in Q1. They have played 12 Q1a games.

Purdue is NET 9. They are 10-8 in Q1 with a SOS of 7.

UConn is NET 10 but their SOS is 59 and those Q1 and Q2 losses (1 each) really hurt.

MSU is NET 11. They are 14-7 in Q1+Q2 and 9-6 in Q1, but 3-5 in Q1a and have a Q2 loss.

Virginia is NET 12 but has a SOS of 70 and have a Q2 loss.

kNU is NET 13. Their SOS is better at 33 and are 9-6 in Q1. However they are 3-6 in Q1a. No losses below Q1a.
If you look at the resumes as a whole. I don't see how a rational objective person can have MSU ahead of us.
 
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I’m pretty sure we would bring more fans to Chicago than Illinois will. Illinois doesn’t have a very sports-focused alumni base.
As a (suburban) Chicagoan, no way. UIUC is somewhat less sport-focused than Iowa State, but that's more than countered by the huge number of UIUC grads in the Chicago area.
 
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