Does a 2 vs. 3 seed even matter that much? You end up playing each other to go to the Elite 8. Either spot avoids the #1 seed until the Elite 8. Maybe the 1st and 2nd round opponents are slightly worse as a 2, but it's not that much different.
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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It's one better
There’s a difference, yes. #2 plays worse teams on the s-curve and has a higher statistical chance of advancing.
Plus you get preferred placement in your pod. This year, that doesn’t mean much as ISU is going to St. Louis no matter what, but it meant playing in Omaha in 2024
Statistically it is always better to be a higher seed. You could say there’s not much difference between 1 and 2 seeds. But analytically and historically speaking, the higher the seed the easier path
Edit: here’s some good data
BracketOdds - How Far Does Each Seed Advance?
March Madness: What are the odds? A tool for bracketologists.
I’m having a harder and harder time seeing us not be a 2 seed (feels likely Florida has locked up the 4th 1 seed and it’s unlikely we are behind Illinois on the s-curve).
Really have to think Illinois' 0-1 record in the conference tourney put's them at overall seed #9. If Michigan State were also to lose then it would be at tight race to the bottom, but ISU would be safe for 7 or 8.
Could be Deja Vu. Didn't ISU (2 seed) play Illinois (3 seed) a couple years ago and lose? Seems like things are heading that direction again for a sour 16.
8 versus 9 could be a big deal.
If Duke is #1 overall and UConn #5, then we will be #2 in East with Illinois as #3.
If Duke is #2 or UConn is #6, then we would be #2 in Midwest with Nebraska, Alabama or Virginia as #3.
If Iowa State was #9 and we would almost certainly be #3 in Midwest with UConn as the #2.
If Duke is #1 overall and UConn #5, then we will be #2 in East with Illinois as #3.
If Duke is #2 or UConn is #6, then we would be #2 in Midwest with Nebraska, Alabama or Virginia as #3.
If Iowa State was #9 and we would almost certainly be #3 in Midwest with UConn as the #2.
In the last 24 hours, ISU has slowly moved on Bracket Matrix from an average 3.0 to now 2.59. As people are scrubbing their seed lines, ISU is going up
S-curve will likely be:
1: Duke
2: Michigan
3: Arizona
4: Florida
5: Houston
6: UConn
7: Iowa St.
Everyone else
1: Duke
2: Michigan
3: Arizona
4: Florida
5: Houston
6: UConn
7: Iowa St.
Everyone else
I guess I don't see a world where there will be more Big12 #1-2 seeds than B1G. "They" won't let it happen, I'm calling Purdue and MSU at 7/8.
It'll be something like "conf tournament performance does not influence us" when talking about ISU. Then when talking about Purdue, "they had a great showing in their tournament..."
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It’s worth pointing out that 20 of those are from Thursday. If you remove those, ISU narrowly passes Illinois for the last 2 seed
Probably some 3/13 haven’t updated since yesterday morning either.
I don’t see too much of a difference this year between a 2 in the East versus a 3 in the Midwest. Especially with Wisconsin likely moving up to a 5, I think the remaining 6,7 seeds are pretty equal in quality. Chicago would be better than DC for crowd support.
Agreed on both points, but I bet after today we will be pretty comfortably ahead of Illinois
Hopefully we have done enough to get the Midwest as a 2. Got to think we fall ahead of Michigan State and Illinois after yesterday. Put UConn in the East, Houston in the South, and Iowa State in the Midwest. Depending on what Purdue does, you could potentially have all Big Ten teams as 3 seeds
