2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[danvillecyclone]

I was there as well. I just remember being impressed with the showing Providence made.

Yes

I remember after the KU/Providence game, a drunk KU lady was talking with a group from Providence on the concourse.

She was telling them how great the Providence fans were and that KU hates Iowa State and their fans. I joined the group and she then started getting pretty aggressive. It was pretty sad actually and the Providence fans were basically making fun of her.

Good times!

 

[not-the-manager]

Yes

I remember after the KU/Providence game, a drunk KU lady was talking with a group from Providence on the concourse.

She was telling them how great the Providence fans were and that KU hates Iowa State and their fans. I joined the group and she then started getting pretty aggressive. It was pretty sad actually and the Providence fans were basically making fun of her.

Good times!

I’ve noticed the last few seasons that Kansas fans realllly don’t like that Houston, Iowa State, and Arizona can consistently beat them now. I guess I can kind of understand it when your program has been so good for so long. But I think too many equate being a basketball blue blood with being in an entirely different class of athletic departments and schools than the rest of the Big 12. I guess they’ve got their mega donor, but it hasn’t translated to major success like it did it at Tech. And if one donor was all it took they’d already be in the Big Ten. Well, that ship has sailed IMO, so they could just accept that they have more in common with Iowa State than Michigan

 

[harimad]

Let’s go Red Storm

I was watching the Alabama game with my dad last night and the score for St John’s/UConn did not look good.

 

[StLouisClone]

If ISU beats Arizona, ISU will have wins against all the teams that UConn has losses against (Arizona, St. John and Creighton).

 

[not-the-manager]

I guess I’d rather be just-right than overseeded. will be interesting if Florida ends up getting a 2, would have to think they wouldn’t be so far above the dotted line

 

[bosco]

I guess I’d rather be just-right than overseeded. will be interesting if Florida ends up getting a 2, would have to think they wouldn’t be so far above the dotted line

How can you be underseed as a 1? What seed is higher then a 1? Maybe I don't understand it.

 

[not-the-manager]

How can you be underseed as a 1? What seed is higher then a 1? Maybe I don't understand it.

This guy is a Big Ten homer who usually annoys me, but I think he’s right—Michigan is that much better than a typical 1 seed

 

[Urbandale2013]

Listening to two guys right now and they are talking about the bracketology. Why is everyone just ignoring the committees actual rankings. Everyone just seems to be ignoring we were the 4th seed. It pretty clearly is us or Connecticut for the last 1 seed.

 

[CascadeClone]

If ISU beats Arizona, ISU will have wins against all the teams that UConn has losses against (Arizona, St. John and Creighton).

That is a ridiculous coincidence.

Maybe the Cuse will get them in the BE tourney lol.

 

[cydnote]

How can you be underseed as a 1? What seed is higher then a 1? Maybe I don't understand it.

By definition: Underseeded teams advance 69% further than teams of the same seed

 

[cydnote]

I don't think so, but I'll cheer for it to happen. Need a highly unlikely UConn loss.

Just because NCAA won't release another official version, doesn't mean things haven't changed in their rankings. I don't pretend to be a metrics expert, and that's why I like bracket matrix so much. Some are better than others, but I figure that averaging out 125ish "experts", gives a fairly solid picture. Even before destroying St John's last night, UConn had a sizeable advantage over ISU in the 4 vs. 5 battle.

I'm relying on the committee, not 125 experts. They've already gave us the edge in the reveal and an Arizona win will trump a St Johns win since then.
Win out and we're a one.

 

[t.m.]

I'm relying on the committee, not 125 experts. They've already gave us the edge in the reveal and an Arizona win will trump a St Johns win since then.
Win out and we're a one.

I hope that's true, but Cyclones also have a loss since the first reveal, UConn doesn't. So winning out likely leaves ISU at 4-1 "post reveal", and UConn 4-0.

Beating TT on Saturday would +/- cancel out them beating St John's.
Would winning at Arizona be enough to make up for the loss at BYU? Maybe, but I wouldn't call it a lock. Cyclones do have a better chance for meaningful wins in conf tourney, which might give the bump needed (assuming committee actually cares about conf tourney...)

 

[iastatefan1]

By definition: Underseeded teams advance 69% further than teams of the same seed

Nice

 

[WhatchaGonnaDo]

Cyclones have the most 10-0 runs in the country and chuckleheads on this website are still concerned about scoring droughts

 

[VeloClone]

I hope that's true, but Cyclones also have a loss since the first reveal, UConn doesn't. So winning out likely leaves ISU at 4-1 "post reveal", and UConn 4-0.

Beating TT on Saturday would +/- cancel out them beating St John's.
Would winning at Arizona be enough to make up for the loss at BYU? Maybe, but I wouldn't call it a lock. Cyclones do have a better chance for meaningful wins in conf tourney, which might give the bump needed (assuming committee actually cares about conf tourney...)

I don't know how winning on the road at a top 5 team (a very strong Q1a win) wouldn't more than make up for losing on the road to a top 25 team (also solidly Q1a). Keep in mind that a win at UA would instantly become ISU's best win, even trumping ISU's signature win at Purdue. It would also be better than UConn's best win - a neutral site win over Illinois.

 

[bluestarcyclone]

Cyclones have the most 10-0 runs in the country and chuckleheads on this website are still concerned about scoring droughts

I mean, if you compare us to the teams that are our "company", the teams we are hoping to compete with to have a deep run, while we have plenty of 10-0 runs, we also allow more, which is where you see the scoring droughts (though even this chart would hide droughts that are like 15-2 or something where we get a random ft or two in the middle of that run)

In both cases though I'd like to see this expressed differently as different teams have played a different number of games vs the top 50 so the sample sizes may vary. Would like to see this as a per game metric.

 

[MeowingCows]

I mean, if you compare us to the teams that are our "company", the teams we are hoping to compete with to have a deep run, while we have plenty of 10-0 runs, we also allow more, which is where you see the scoring droughts (though even this chart would hide droughts that are like 15-2 or something where we get a random ft or two in the middle of that run)

In both cases though I'd like to see this expressed differently as different teams have played a different number of games vs the top 50 so the sample sizes may vary. Would like to see this as a per game metric.

Data like this is heavily influenced by buy-games. That's not to say we didn't play well in those, but that's not representative of the opponent type we'll see recently or in the near future. Would be more useful to use to break down intro games against NET 100 or better, or Q1/Q2 opponents only, something to that extent.

 

[bluestarcyclone]

Data like this is heavily influenced by buy-games. That's not to say we didn't play well in those, but that's not representative of the opponent type we'll see recently or in the near future. Would be more useful to use to break down intro games against NET 100 or better, or Q1/Q2 opponents only, something to that extent.

I may have misread the chart as originally being just in games vs kenpom top 50, but I see it's just those teams plus p5 in the chart.

I agree it would be better to filter out the buy games to get a much better idea of how teams perform against tournament-level teams

 

[VeloClone]

I mean, if you compare us to the teams that are our "company", the teams we are hoping to compete with to have a deep run, while we have plenty of 10-0 runs, we also allow more, which is where you see the scoring droughts (though even this chart would hide droughts that are like 15-2 or something where we get a random ft or two in the middle of that run)

In both cases though I'd like to see this expressed differently as different teams have played a different number of games vs the top 50 so the sample sizes may vary. Would like to see this as a per game metric.

Not exactly what you asked for but for some context ISU has played 20 Q1 & Q2 games. On the entire season ISU has allowed 11 of those 10+ point scoring runs. Is it more than some of the big dogs? Absolutely. But ISU has also managed 35 of those runs themselves which is over 3 times as many of those runs given up.

Also: LOL, purple Kansas.

 

[Statefan10]

Cyclones have the most 10-0 runs in the country and chuckleheads on this website are still concerned about scoring droughts

St. John’s had the worst scoring drought of all time last night. At least the worst I’ve ever seen. 2-28 in the second half shooting, missing 24 straight shots and put up 14 points.

0 field goals in the final 17 minutes of regulation.