2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[cyfan92]

Best case scenario between now and Saturday:

• St John's win at UCONN
• Texas beating Florida, preferably by A LOT
• Iowa beats Ohio St by 5+
• Either a Purdue minimal win, or a MSU win (tomorrow)
• Michigan winning at Illinois (Friday)

 

[dahliaclone]

Best case scenario between now and Saturday:

• St John's win at UCONN
• Texas beating Florida, preferably by A LOT
• Iowa beats Ohio St by 5+
• Either a Purdue minimal win, or a MSU win (tomorrow)
• Michigan winning at Illinois (Friday)

Under no circumstance do I cheer for Iowa. Ever.

I'm indifferent on Florida winning or losing. If they win, they'll likely win out and be a 2 seed with us. If they lose it's not a bad loss and they'll still likely stay on the 3. Michigan winning would be great.

 

[cyfan92]

Under no circumstance do I cheer for Iowa. Ever.

I'm indifferent on Florida winning or losing. If they win, they'll likely win out and be a 2 seed with us. If they lose it's not a bad loss and they'll still likely stay on the 3. Michigan winning would be great.

I'm not saying you are wrong or right, but here is the reality...

We are in a dogfight with several teams for the last 1 seed and Iowa @ home is a Q1 win right now. Should that fall to Q2, it may be the limiting factor in us getting a 2 seed versus 1 seed.

Here are the odds to advance in March Madness, based on seeding, and tell me the difference between a 1 seed and 2 seed don't matter...

Gemini:

History of Records By Seed in the NCAA Tournament

Odds, records, and history by seeding for March Madness tournament to help find upsets in this year's bracket.

www.betfirm.com

 

[dahliaclone]

I'm not saying you are wrong or right, but here is the reality...

We are in a dogfight with several teams for the last 1 seed and Iowa @ home is a Q1 win right now. Should that fall to Q2, it may be the limiting factor in us getting a 2 seed versus 1 seed.

Here are the odds to advance in March Madness, based on seeding, and tell me the difference between a 1 seed and 2 seed don't matter...

Gemini:
View attachment 168176

History of Records By Seed in the NCAA Tournament

Odds, records, and history by seeding for March Madness tournament to help find upsets in this year's bracket.

www.betfirm.com

View attachment 168177

I'm well aware that we should want teams we beat to win. I just won't actively cheer for it to happen with Iowa. Nothing more.

 

[Dale]

Here are the odds to advance in March Madness, based on seeding, and tell me the difference between a 1 seed and 2 seed don't matter...

Gemini:
View attachment 168176

Yeah, but No. 1 seeds also have the advantage of being better teams than no. 2-4 seeds...which is a much more impactful factor than the seed line per se.

 

[EnkAMania]

Under no circumstance do I cheer for Iowa. Ever.

I'm indifferent on Florida winning or losing. If they win, they'll likely win out and be a 2 seed with us. If they lose it's not a bad loss and they'll still likely stay on the 3. Michigan winning would be great.

iowa does us no good unless they get to the top 15 of the NET and that ain't happening, so go Buckeyes!

 

[ChickenNuggetMan]

So much for St John’s winning

 

[madguy30]

If Iowa's even remotely a team to rely on for seeding I'll stick with thinking that ISU had their chances with TCU and UC.

 

[cyclones500]

So much for St John’s winning

Yeah, that ship sailed in a Hurley.

(... I'll show myself out.)

 

[NENick]

Yeah, that ship sailed in a Hurley.

(... I'll show myself out.)

That about made me hurl(ey).

 

[qwerty]

That about made me hurl(ey).

Your comment made me Beechum

 

[moores2]

I was there vs Miami in 2022.

KU had the most fans,

Iowa State was a close second.

I was there as well. I just remember being impressed with the showing Providence made.

 

[VeloClone]

iowa does us no good unless they get to the top 15 of the NET and that ain't happening, so go Buckeyes!

Iowa is currently NET 27. If they drop below NET 31 that Q1 win becomes Q2.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

I was there as well. I just remember being impressed with the showing Providence made.

Providence has deep, deep pockets. They've just continually shot themselves in the foot over and over with bad hires. They should be at the top of the Big East every year.

 

[KennyPratt42]

Unless we win at Arizona the ship has likely sailed on getting a 1 seed. UConn all but locked it up last night. Not saying it is deserved but I can’t see a world where the committee doesn’t put UConn 4 on the s-curve (5 on the initial release, winning at Villanova and killing St John since then, and two easy games left).

We are playing for 5 on the s-curve and hoping the committee doesn’t do something weird and put us in the Midwest with #2 Michigan instead of in the South with #4 UConn. I would think winning our two home games, keeping it close at Arizona, and winning at least one game in Kansas City should give us a pretty good shot at the #5 spot.

 

[clone52]

Unless we win at Arizona the ship has likely sailed on getting a 1 seed. UConn all but locked it up last night. Not saying it is deserved but I can’t see a world where the community doesn’t put UConn 4 on the s-curve (5 on the initial release, winning at Villanova and killing St John since then, and two easy games left).

We are playing for 5 on the s-curve and hoping the committee doesn’t do something weird and put us in the Midwest with #2 Michigan instead of in the South with #4 UConn. I would think winning our two home games, keeping it close at Arizona, and winning at least one game in Kansas City should give us a pretty good shot at the #5 spot.

You're probably right, but they did lose a home game to Creighton, so maybe they lay an egg against Seton Hall or Marquette, or in the 1st or 2nd round of the Big East tournament. Unlikely, but possible.

If we win the next 3, we will jump them for a #1 seed. The won't have another Quad 1 opportunity, so their results based metrics can really only go down. Iowa State has 2 more Quad 1, plus most likely, all 3 Big 12 tournament games are Quad 1.

 

[StLouisClone]

You're probably right, but they did lose a home game to Creighton, so maybe they lay an egg against Seton Hall or Marquette, or in the 1st or 2nd round of the Big East tournament. Unlikely, but possible.

If we win the next 3, we will jump them for a #1 seed. The won't have another Quad 1 opportunity, so their results based metrics can really only go down. Iowa State has 2 more Quad 1, plus most likely, all 3 Big 12 tournament games are Quad 1.

I agree with this. UConn may jump to # 4 in the AP Poll, but the Selection Committee won’t be releasing another version of their Top 16 until the final bracket is revealed. ISU will remain a 1 seed if it goes 3-0 to end the regular season.

 

[Urbandale2013]

Unless we win at Arizona the ship has likely sailed on getting a 1 seed. UConn all but locked it up last night. Not saying it is deserved but I can’t see a world where the committee doesn’t put UConn 4 on the s-curve (5 on the initial release, winning at Villanova and killing St John since then, and two easy games left).

We are playing for 5 on the s-curve and hoping the committee doesn’t do something weird and put us in the Midwest with #2 Michigan instead of in the South with #4 UConn. I would think winning our two home games, keeping it close at Arizona, and winning at least one game in Kansas City should give us a pretty good shot at the #5 spot.

If we win out we will be the 1 seed. If we lose @Arizona there are a bunch of different scenarios including a 1 seed.

 

[t.m.]

I agree with this. UConn may jump to # 4 in the AP Poll, but the Selection Committee won’t be releasing another version of their Top 16 until the final bracket is revealed. ISU will remain a 1 seed if it goes 3-0 to end the regular season.

I don't think so, but I'll cheer for it to happen. Need a highly unlikely UConn loss.

Just because NCAA won't release another official version, doesn't mean things haven't changed in their rankings. I don't pretend to be a metrics expert, and that's why I like bracket matrix so much. Some are better than others, but I figure that averaging out 125ish "experts", gives a fairly solid picture. Even before destroying St John's last night, UConn had a sizeable advantage over ISU in the 4 vs. 5 battle.

 

[CysEyesVet]

If they go 3-0 regardless of how the Big 12 Tournament plays out there should be a shot that they get the final number one seed! Right now, it definitely looks like UConn is getting it... but never say never!