2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

It's puzzling that a team with this many key veterans can't bring what they need to win on the road. This is what could potentially cost the team a seed line. The good thing is the cyclones were good on neutral courts this year so if we only lose at arizona a 2 seed should be a lock and an undefeated end of regular season should get us a 1 seed.
 
It's puzzling that a team with this many key veterans can't bring what they need to win on the road. This is what could potentially cost the team a seed line. The good thing is the cyclones were good on neutral courts this year so if we only lose at arizona a 2 seed should be a lock and an undefeated end of regular season should get us a 1 seed.
I think BYU might actually be figuring stuff back out even with losing Saunders. It is also another game at elevation. I would have preferred to switch these two games around to let them get acclimated but oh well.
 
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It's puzzling that a team with this many key veterans can't bring what they need to win on the road. This is what could potentially cost the team a seed line. The good thing is the cyclones were good on neutral courts this year so if we only lose at arizona a 2 seed should be a lock and an undefeated end of regular season should get us a 1 seed.
I don't think it's that puzzling. Winning on the road is really hard. We're not more talented than BYU and they have probably the best player in the country.
 
I think BYU might actually be figuring stuff back out even with losing Saunders. It is also another game at elevation. I would have preferred to switch these two games around to let them get acclimated but oh well.

They had one game without him and still hung around at AZ and I thought Saturday they really made AJ the focal point compared to what I'd seen of them prior, probably had to switch other guys to more prominent roles after having a game to test things out.

ISU still wasn't sharp but I saw comments on YT highlight clip with BYU fans being happy with BYU putting together a more complete game.
 
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I don't think it's that puzzling. Winning on the road is really hard. We're not more talented than BYU and they have probably the best player in the country.
It is very difficult to win on the road but if this team wants to be a top seed they have to do it.
 
They had one game without him and still hung around at AZ and I thought Saturday they really made AJ the focal point compared to what I'd seen of them prior, probably had to switch other guys to more prominent roles after having a game to test things out.

ISU still wasn't sharp but I saw comments on YT highlight clip with BYU fans being happy with BYU putting together a more complete game.
As they should. Saunders was an incredible player, but watching them this year, it almost felt like they were trying to run stuff for him just because he is who he is. With him out of the picture, it cuts that tension and they can just run it for the obviously best player on the floor. That also creates a little bit of a mystery for a few games in how you need to guard them.
 
Someone can correct me, but I think this is what we're hoping for this week

Iowa State: 2-0
Illinois: loses to Michigan Friday
Purdue: 1-1 or 0-2
Florida: 1-1 or 0-2
Houston: loses to Kansas
UConn: 1-1
Kansas: beats Houston but loses at Arizona

I don't think UConn will get swept by St. John's, though they have to go to Marquette next week. Florida winning out wouldn't shock me, but I think they'll stumble at some point. I don't know how worried we are about Nebraska and Kansas, but Nebraska will probably only lose one more game. Kansas is a necessary evil, I think we need to maintain some separation from Houston, but it would come at the cost of Kansas gaining a little ground
 
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I think going 3-1 would be a near lock at a 2 seed. Depending on if Houston/UCONN lose, it may be enough to sneak the last 1 seed. Going 2-2 probably gets the last 2 seed.

I'm as big of Torvick fan as anyone, but for some reason ISU's T-Rank has been 4 spots (1 seed) lower than it was in most other rankings all year. So I would take any Torvick seeding predictions with a grain of salt.

Torvik is more aggressive about filtering out "garbage time" against bad teams. It's not a huge effect overall, but when teams at the top are this close to one another, you notice it like that.
 
Lunardi dropped them to a 2 seed this morning albeit the top 2 seed. I suspect dropping the game at Arizona will drop them further down the 2 seed line. Drop any others along the way likely will result in a drop to a 3.

LOL a loss at Arizona won't do anything to their seed line. The only 3 seed that even has a shot at sniffing the 2 line is Florida. Iowa State's resume is also better than any of the 3 seeds.
 
Someone can correct me, but I think this is what we're hoping for this week

Iowa State: 2-0
Illinois: loses to Michigan Friday
Purdue: 1-1 or 0-2
Florida: 1-1 or 0-2
Houston: loses to Kansas
UConn: 1-1
Kansas: beats Houston but loses at Arizona

I don't think UConn will get swept by St. John's, though they have to go to Marquette next week. Florida winning out wouldn't shock me, but I think they'll stumble at some point. I don't know how worried we are about Nebraska and Kansas, but Nebraska will probably only lose one more. Kansas is a necessary evil, I think we need to maintain some separation with Houston, but it would come at the cost of Kansas gaining a little ground

Our head to head piss pounding of Purdue will keep Iowa State above Purdue's seed line.
 
Gonzaga won't sniff the 2 seed line. They don't have the resume they've had in the past. They have played SEVENTEEN Q3 and Q4 games and have a Q3 loss. The committee made it perfectly clear when they slotted the Zags at 12 on Saturday. Florida is the only 3 seed with a shot to move to the 2 line IMO.
 
Dumb@ss Lunardi has both ISU and Houston as 2 seeds, with UConn getting the last 1 seed. Complete idiot.