2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

Lots of gnashing of teeth about FT's. Oddly I'm not that concerned about it. As long as the disparity of FT made between the 2 teams are relatively close.

Also, I'm a believer of over a long enough timeline players shoot what their % is. Which means Jefferson and Tamin are shooting below their career % which indicates that more makes are due in the future. These makes are going to happen at crucial junctures.

Another point, Uzan, a 80% FT shooter missed a critical one. What good was his FT% there?

Make them when it matters.
Jefferson yes, his shooting has been fine lately. Lipsey, nope, seems to only be getting worse. Doesn't even make them in crunch time like he used to.
 
When I see a player consistently missing shots short I think it is usually a issue in the legs - just not able to get the strength from the legs that the shooter is used to so each shot comes up a little short despite their upper body doing what their muscle memory is telling them is the correct shot.

Sorry for the long, terrible run-on sentence.
Lipsey's free throws come up consistently short because he has such a flat shot. A flat shot takes much more precision to make than one with more of an arch. I'm kinda surprised he hasn't had a coach by now that has corrected it.

As bad as the team seems to always be at free throws, it makes me wonder if they really study each player's form and do much to correct it. Or they just hope that if they shoot enough on their own that they will magically be better.
 
Lipsey's free throws come up consistently short because he has such a flat shot. A flat shot takes much more precision to make than one with more of an arch. I'm kinda surprised he hasn't had a coach by now that has corrected it.

As bad as the team seems to always be at free throws, it makes me wonder if they really study each player's form and do much to correct it. Or they just hope that if they shoot enough on their own that they will magically be better.
Agreed, ! The rhythmic bounce(s) and knees-flexing (with follow through) seems hurried. Slow- down, focus, extend… relax. It’s a completely different ballgame at the free throw line. As a former Elk’s Hoopshooter, I know.
 
If we can play to our ability and clean up the free throw issue, we can beat anyone. Give me a 2 seed and LFG
A 1 seed is within the reach. So the goal needs to be getting a 1 seed. Yes, it matters that much.

Go get it and LFG!
 
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Just heard Matt Norlander from CBS Sports on the Jim Rome show and he was part of the committee that will reveal the first 16 seeds tomorrow as they stand now. He is of the opinion that there is not much that can change the top four (Michigan, Duke, Arizona, and Houston) regardless of the outcome of the games remaining. Didn’t go into a lot of depth to preserve the purpose of the show, but made it sound like they were pretty much set in stone.
Norlander was part of the mock selection committee - that is something that they have done a few times recently where the let some media go through the process. That is completely different than the actual committee that is doing the top 16 reveal and official bracket. He’ll be part of the CBS show that reveals the official committee’s bracket, but again, that is different than what he sat in on.
 
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It is strictly against bracketing rules. Top 4 teams in a conference will be in different regions unless the conference has more than 9 teams or other higher priority rules prevent it. None of those higher priority rules are in play for the Big 12 top 4 teams.
Actually, there's a different criteria for the first four seed lines:
"The first four teams from any conference placed on the top four seed lines must be assigned to different regions (unless five or more teams appear on those seed lines)."

If Texas Tech remains at least a #4, then this would be possible since there'd be us, Houston, Arizona, Kansas, and Tech.

Found here, first item under "Conference Matchup Rules": https://www.ncaa.org/sports/2026/2/5/ncaa-mens-basketball-tournament-selections.aspx#phase3
 
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Just heard Matt Norlander from CBS Sports on the Jim Rome show and he was part of the committee that will reveal the first 16 seeds tomorrow as they stand now. He is of the opinion that there is not much that can change the top four (Michigan, Duke, Arizona, and Houston) regardless of the outcome of the games remaining. Didn’t go into a lot of depth to preserve the purpose of the show, but made it sound like they were pretty much set in stone.
That's pretty silly. One of the last 1 seeds losing out and one of the first 2 seeds winning out could change the complexion greatly.
 
Actually, there's a different criteria for the first four seed lines:
"The first four teams from any conference placed on the top four seed lines must be assigned to different regions (unless five or more teams appear on those seed lines)."

If Texas Tech remains at least a #4, then this would be possible since there'd be us, Houston, Arizona, Kansas, and Tech.

Found here, first item under "Conference Matchup Rules": https://www.ncaa.org/sports/2026/2/5/ncaa-mens-basketball-tournament-selections.aspx#phase3
I read it differently but you are probably right. I just assume it meant the 5th team obviously could be in the same region as the first four.
 
Their case is going to be two losses compared to ~4-5 for the next-best contender if things go their way. Quality ain't got anything to do with it. Purely a quantitative argument right now.
Funny how those goal posts get moved.
 
Yeah, I don't have a problem with that especially early in the season and down the bracket. But when it is late February and especially late February and you are predicting the top half of the seeds, I would think you would want to start taking that into account.

I know that the BYU fans blow a gasket everytime they see a bracket that predicts they will be playing in a region with Friday/Sunday games.
Are their players even Mormans? If not don't worry about it. #15 at the end of the bench doesn't count.
 
If we land on the 2 seed line I want UCONN as the #1 and Gonzaga as the #3. Those two teams play in inferior conferences and have been messing around with near losses to pretty poor teams all year long. Im not so sure they are battle tested. Id love our chances to make a Final 4 run with that draw.
I hate “good draws.” We seem to lose more in the round of 32 or S16 when that happens.
 
That's pretty silly. One of the last 1 seeds losing out and one of the first 2 seeds winning out could change the complexion greatly.
Plus Arizona plays Houston and ISU. Lots could change over the next couple weeks. I think Michigan and Duke are pretty well locked in but those 3 Big 12 teams are far from decided