Nobody will like this take, but my major concern is that Houston, Kansas, Arizona, BYU are all more talented than us.
How will we look when we play teams we can't just beat by trying harder.
Hilton will help I guess.
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
How will we look when we play teams we can't just beat by trying harder.
Hilton will help I guess.
It will be interesting to see. I wouldn't say they are all more talented. More athletic maybe, and maybe they each have the most talented player in the game, but it's not just effort on Iowa State's side. It is their cohesiveness as a team.
I would also wager that none of them has as talented of a top 3 as Iowa State has.
KU, BYU, and TTU have all shown that, like us, their floor is pretty low.
I like our chances of finishing out at least 4-4 here.
Likely wins: @ TCU, @ Utah, vs. ASU
Likely losses: @ Arizona
Tossups: vs. KU, vs. Houston, @ BYU, vs. TTU
Count each tossup as a half-win and that's 5-3, puts us at 26-5 (13-5). I'd even say that's pretty conservative given that three of the tossups are home games, but then it's of course possible we drop one of my "likely wins" too.
I like our chances of finishing out at least 4-4 here.
Likely wins: @ TCU, @ Utah, vs. ASU
Likely losses: @ Arizona
Tossups: vs. KU, vs. Houston, @ BYU, vs. TTU
Count each tossup as a half-win and that's 5-3, puts us at 26-5 (13-5). I'd even say that's pretty conservative given that three of the tossups are home games, but then it's of course possible we drop one of my "likely wins" too.
Hopefully we will look like the team that went into Mackey Arena and beat a talented Purdue team by 23.
How about another update before the next AP poll comes out...
Iowa State NET 5 (as of 08 FEB)
21-2, 13-0 NC, 8-2 Conf
Home 13-0, Away 4-2, Neutral 4-0
NET SOS 64, RPI SOS 74
KPI 9, SOR 7, WAB 8, BPI 5, POM 6, T Rank 7
Q1 5-1
..Q1a 2-1 (A 10 Purdue +23, A 13 KU -21, N 22 St John’s +1)
..Q1b 3-0 (H 18 Iowa +4, A 47 BU +10, A 66 OSU +13)
Q2 9-1
..Q2a 4-1 (H 44 UCF +30, H 47 BU +3, N 68 Syracuse +31, A 85 UC -9, A 91 KSU +34)
..Q2b 5-0 (H 62 WVU +21, H 66 OSU +12, H 71 CU +30, N 80 Creighton +18, N 97 Miss St +16)
Q3 0-0
Q4 7-0 (H 248 Long Beach +31, H 263 Grambling +40, H 301 HCU +28, H 309 EIU +25, H 324 FDU +38, H 335 Stonehill +39, H 353 Alcorn +64)
Notes:
4 Home, 4 Away
Q1 6 (3H, 3A)
Q2 1 (0H, 1A)
Q3 1 (1H, 0A)
Q4 0
Remaining schedule:
Tu 2/10 Q1b @ 53 TCU
St 2/14 Q1a 13 KU
M 2/16 Q1a 6 UH
St 2/21 Q1a @ 19 BYU
Tu 2/24 Q2b @ 126 UU
St 2/28 Q1b 20 TTU
M 3/2 Q1a @ 1 UA
St 3/7 Q3 81 ASU
3/10-14 Big 12 Tournament
Some teams did AP #7 ISU some favors this week.
#3 UConn lost to St. John's. The St. John's win also helped maintain ISU's win over St. John's as a Q1a win.
#4 Duke lost to UNC.
#5 Illinois lost to MSU.
#6 Gonzaga lost to Portland. The Q3 loss to the NET 203 team really hurts their resume.
All of those teams either having an equal number of losses as ISU or more losses (Illinois, 4) seems to make room for ISU to move up multiple spots but I wager that many voters will still not move ISU up to 3.
Iowa State NET 5 (as of 08 FEB)
21-2, 13-0 NC, 8-2 Conf
Home 13-0, Away 4-2, Neutral 4-0
NET SOS 64, RPI SOS 74
KPI 9, SOR 7, WAB 8, BPI 5, POM 6, T Rank 7
Q1 5-1
..Q1a 2-1 (A 10 Purdue +23, A 13 KU -21, N 22 St John’s +1)
..Q1b 3-0 (H 18 Iowa +4, A 47 BU +10, A 66 OSU +13)
Q2 9-1
..Q2a 4-1 (H 44 UCF +30, H 47 BU +3, N 68 Syracuse +31, A 85 UC -9, A 91 KSU +34)
..Q2b 5-0 (H 62 WVU +21, H 66 OSU +12, H 71 CU +30, N 80 Creighton +18, N 97 Miss St +16)
Q3 0-0
Q4 7-0 (H 248 Long Beach +31, H 263 Grambling +40, H 301 HCU +28, H 309 EIU +25, H 324 FDU +38, H 335 Stonehill +39, H 353 Alcorn +64)
Notes:
- NET dropped from 4 to 5.
- ISU SOS lost a little ground with only 1 game last week and that only a Q2.
- ISU resume looking good with 14 combined Q1 and Q2 wins and no losses below Q2a.
- Six of next seven games are Q1.
4 Home, 4 Away
Q1 6 (3H, 3A)
Q2 1 (0H, 1A)
Q3 1 (1H, 0A)
Q4 0
Remaining schedule:
Tu 2/10 Q1b @ 53 TCU
St 2/14 Q1a 13 KU
M 2/16 Q1a 6 UH
St 2/21 Q1a @ 19 BYU
Tu 2/24 Q2b @ 126 UU
St 2/28 Q1b 20 TTU
M 3/2 Q1a @ 1 UA
St 3/7 Q3 81 ASU
3/10-14 Big 12 Tournament
Some teams did AP #7 ISU some favors this week.
#3 UConn lost to St. John's. The St. John's win also helped maintain ISU's win over St. John's as a Q1a win.
#4 Duke lost to UNC.
#5 Illinois lost to MSU.
#6 Gonzaga lost to Portland. The Q3 loss to the NET 203 team really hurts their resume.
All of those teams either having an equal number of losses as ISU or more losses (Illinois, 4) seems to make room for ISU to move up multiple spots but I wager that many voters will still not move ISU up to 3.
7% chance to win the whole thing!
But I've read on CF that this team's ceiling is Sweet 16, Elite 8, or Final 4.
But I've read on CF that this team's ceiling is Sweet 16, Elite 8, or Final 4.
We are banking on that a little too much IMO. Purdue is way less talented than Houston, Zona, BYU and Kansas.
This team has demonstrated that they could beat any tournament team and they could lose to any tournament team.
Based on how we've played throughout the season, I think any of those opinions are very valid. Was your comment supposed to be a gotcha of some kind? Apologies if I misinterpreting.
No apology needed. And I agree that all of those, along with round 1 or 2 exit, are possibilities. Same with every other team, now that the 1-16 barriers has been broken a couple of times. However, it makes no sense to me to say a team's ceiling is ... This team has shown, by the analytics and results, that they can beat anybody, so the ceiling is winning it all. Would I bet on it? No.
…which is pretty much true of everybody. Even the mighty and undefeated Arizona is one bad shooting night away from losing to a #5 seed in the second weekend.
Yes. Off night or a certain type of opponent …
There are several cases of overall 1 seed losing to an 8 or 9 in round of 32. Not frequent but does occur.
I could be totally wrong but I think during the UC or KU game they were called an NIT team and I know in the UC game they were said to be broken while the TJ January collapse (the narrative got moved back a whole month) was upon us.
Man, I would take 6-2 the rest of the way in a heart beat.
I could absolutely be ok with 5-3.
I think we finish 7-1. But I can't see due to the density of my cardinal colored glasses.
Sorry to hear you are concerned.
How is talent calculated?
Who has a better shooter than Milan? Are FG, 3PT and FT % accurate measures of talent?
Who has a better PG than Tamin? Is assist to TO ratio an accurate measure of talent?
A subjective measure but last I saw was that JJeff was ranked as the 3rd best player in the country? Tamin and Milan also in the Top 30. None of those other teams have 3 in the top 30.
I think you might mean they have more athletic players and that would be hard to argue. But I'll take disciplined and hard working over athletic any day.
