2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[VeloClone]

I would gladly sign up for only 3 more conference losses with that final gauntlet starting on valentine's day.

I think the gauntlet really begins on the 10th. Every game from @ TCU to @ Arizona is a Q1 game with the exception of @ Utah.

 

[VeloClone]

Let's have a NET update before tomorrow's game. This does not include any of today's games.

Iowa State NET 6
19-2, 13-0 NC, 6-2 Conf
Home 12-0, Away 3-2, Neutral 4-0
NET SOS 62, RPI SOS 66
KPI 10, SOR 7, WAB 11, BPI 6, POM 4, T Rank 8

Q1 5-1
..Q1a 2-1 (A 10 Purdue +23, A 15 KU -21, N 24 St John’s +1)
..Q1b 3-0 (H 22 Iowa +4, A 63 BU +10, A 74 OSU +13)
Q2 6-1
..Q2a 2-1 (H 42 UCF +30, N 71 Creighton +18, A 77 UC -9)
..Q2b 4-0 (H 65 WVU +21, H 74 OSU +12, N 79 Syracuse +31, N 93 Miss St +16)
Q3 1-0 (H 86 CU +30)
Q4 7-0 (H 246 Long Beach +31, H 275 Grambling +40, H 301 HCU +28, H 308 EIU +25, H 336 FDU +38, H 337 Stonehill +39, H 353 Alcorn +64)

Notes:

• RPI SOS is continuing to climb.
• ISU resume looking good with 11 combined Q1 and Q2 wins and no losses below Q2a.
• From 02 FEB through 02 MAR ISU currently has 6 of 7 games as Q1.

Remaining games:
6 Home, 5 Away
Q1 6 (3H, 3A)
Q2 3 (1H, 2A)
Q3 2 (2H, 0A)
Q4 0

Remaining schedule:

(Q1 6, Q2 3, Q3 1)
Sn 2/1 Q2a @ 87 KSU
St 2/7 Q2b 63 BU
Tu 2/10 Q1b @ 46 TCU
St 2/14 Q1a 15 KU
M 2/16 Q1a 9 UH
St 2/21 Q1a @ 14 BYU
Tu 2/24 Q2b @ 111 UU
St 2/28 Q1b 17 TTU
M 3/2 Q1a @ 1 UA
St 3/7 Q3 84 ASU
3/10-14 Big 12 Tournament

 

[JRE1975]

I know it is early, but if our goal is to be a top 4 seed in the big 12 tournament, then we need to start worrying about UCF sneaking in and taking one of those spots. They have the easiest 2nd half schedule in the Big 12. They are 6-3 and only 2 games left with the big boys.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I would gladly sign up for only 3 more conference losses with that final gauntlet starting on valentine's day.

I assumed they win out until "the gauntlet," hold serve at home, and steal a road win at Utah (which might given a game at home... not a good team but not an easy place to win).



The result? Not winning the Big 12 over Arizona probably but...



#2 seed on the cusp of a #1 seed.

I know it is early, but if our goal is to be a top 4 seed in the big 12 tournament, then we need to start worrying about UCF sneaking in and taking one of those spots. They have the easiest 2nd half schedule in the Big 12. They are 6-3 and only 2 games left with the big boys.

This simulation was run at 3:00 AM today (Saturday). So, it misses today's games, and the most relevant one for my forthcoming comment being the UCF upset over Tech.



That said, we're in a good spot -- not prohibitive favorites for a "TOP 4" in the same way as Arizona and Houston but not far behind them. Tech falling back a little bit helps out.

 

[not-the-manager]

Honestly my takeaway from this is how many fewer minutes Lipsey has played than Hoiberg, Fears, and Council

 

[madguy30]

Honestly my takeaway from this is how many fewer minutes Lipsey has played than Hoiberg, Fears, and Council

Does that take the 3 or so games he was out into account?

 

[not-the-manager]

Does that take the 3 or so games he was out into account?

Probably, so I’m kind of an idiot for forgetting. It’s still fewer game-speed miles on his body though, which could help a little down the stretch

 

[CychiatricWard]

Somehow went down in defensive after that shellacking

 

[rosshm16]

Kenpom really liked the KSU win for us, up to #6 in offense and jumped over a full point in NetRtg.

 

[CychiatricWard]

Somehow went down in defensive after that shellacking

Just kidding, it hadn’t updated.

 

[Malone]

Before and after:

 

[bosco]

We are averaging greater than a 99 Torvik Game Score the last 4 games.

 

[harimad]

We are averaging greater than a 99 Torvik Game Score the last 4 games.
View attachment 167027

What Torvik game score did we have for the two stinkers?

 

[bluestarcyclone]

What Torvik game score did we have for the two stinkers?

 

[cyfanatic13]

Figured after Nebraska beat Illinois at home a few weeks ago, today would be a walk in the park with Nebraska being one of the toughest atmospheres to play in and all

 

[bosco]

Figured after Nebraska beat Illinois at home a few weeks ago, today would be a walk in the park with Nebraska being one of the toughest atmospheres to play in and all

I'm becoming more and more impressed with Illinois the more I watch them. I think they are clearly the second best team.

 

[interrobang]

I'm becoming more and more impressed with Illinois the more I watch them. I think they are clearly the second best team.

Just curious, second best in the nation or second best in the Big Ten?

 

[bosco]

Just curious, second best in the nation or second best in the Big Ten?

Nation.

 

[dahliaclone]

I'm becoming more and more impressed with Illinois the more I watch them. I think they are clearly the second best team.

Only losses are to Alabama UCONN and last second shot to Nebraska. I think they’re top five in the country. Hate saying that. But they’re really good.

 

[madguy30]

I think the gauntlet really begins on the 10th. Every game from @ TCU to @ Arizona is a Q1 game with the exception of @ Utah.

In a way it would be good to have a game this week to maybe keep this rhythm going from the last few games but otherwise this week off could be perfect to get rested up a bit for rounding the last corner through February.