2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
I’ve talked up Nebraska in multiple threads, and do think they could beat Michigan. But they will have a game like Iowa State’s at Kansas where shots aren’t falling and everything is disjointed. In fact, while neither the teams nor their seasons are very similar, this actually feels a lot like Iowa State leading up to that game—if you’ve paid close enough attention, Nebraska’s performance in first halves has been pretty lackadaisical this month, despite the team being up to every challenge so far. They also haven’t played a team better than seventh in conference the last two weeks, and may be victims of their own success to some degree in that Michigan may land a blow early that Nebraska hasn’t felt for a while
Yeah, I'll be surprised if BYU isn't a top 4 seed. In fact, with Kansas having a resurgence, I see 6 Big 12 teams in the top 16 seeds.
Kansas is extremely dangerous. They just had a 20 point road win against their hated rivals without Peterson. Im nervous for when they come to Ames.
Nervous? Sure, but I'm also pretty confident you'll see a much different Cyclone team than you saw at KU.
I think Nebraska is about to lose 3 out of their next 4 games.
2-2, they won't lose to both Purdue and Illinois at home.
I tend to disagree here. Nebraska hasn't played perfect but they have not shown to play nearly as bad as we have during a "down" game. I'm not sure they have the ceiling we do but their floor has proven thus far to be significantly better than ours. Since December 28, they are #5 in Torvik overall with the #2 defense. Ours is #22 in that same span (#21 overall).
I would be surprised to see them get down 26 in the first half against any team on their schedule.
I hope so! The team that showed up against Kansas and Cinci will struggle to win most games against the upper half of our league. I'm encouraged how last week went. I expected to win both convincingly so I'm not going to go too crazy overboard, but definitely excited to go 2-0 again this week.
That arena is one of the toughest places to play in America. They have an awesome atmosphere. Its hilarious that in a world where Indiana just won the national title in football nobody thinks Nebraska could ever possibly be good in basketball.
Somehow I don't think 22 home losses in 5 years helps make the case for "one of the toughest places to play in America"
It'll catch up with them and they'll lose some games but this is a legit top 15 team. This is Fred's best team since he's been a college coach. They're gonna be tough next year also.
That's because they weren't very good. It's a pretty frenzied crowd.
Would Hilton still be known as being tough to play in when ISU wasn't very good?
No, I don't think McDermott era Hilton was among the toughest places to play in, and the home records reflect that
Have you watched a Nebraska home game in this time?
I don't know if I'd go with 'toughest places to play' but it hasn't been a sleepwalk either.
Not religiously, but yes I've seen Bugeater home games since the new arena opened.
For comparison's sake, WVU typically has active rowdy crowds and has a reputation as a good home environment. They've lost 24 home games in the last 5 seasons and as much as Iowa State fans pucker up when TJ's teams play there I wouldn't consider it a 'toughest place to play' either.
I'm not ready to say that, but they will certainly be tested. They have some of the best Big 10 teams coming up here.
How about another update on the NET and Nitty Gritty for Iowa State:
Iowa State NET 7
18-2, 13-0 NC, 5-2 Conf (T5th)
Home 11-0, Away 3-2, Neutral 4-0
NET SOS 51, RPI SOS 73
KPI 10, SOR 7, WAB10, BPI 6, POM 6, T Rank 9
Q1 5-1
..Q1a 2-1 (A 10 Purdue +23, A 15 KU -21, N 25 St John’s +1)
..Q1b 3-0 (H 21 Iowa +4, A 59 BU +10, A 73 OSU +13)
Q2 5-1
..Q2a 2-1 (H 38 UCF +30, N 61 Creighton +18, A 78 UC -9)
..Q2b 3-0 (H 65 WVU +21, H 73 OSU +12, N 79 Syracuse +31)
Q3 1-0 (N 106 Miss St +16)
Q4 7-0 (H 271 Grambling +40, H 244 Long Beach +31, H 305 EIU +25, H 310 HCU +28, H 328 FDU +38, H 341 Stonehill +39, H 352 Alcorn +64)
Notes:
6 Home, 5 Away
Q1 6 (3H, 3A)
Q2 3 (1H, 2A)
Q3 2 (2H, 0A)
Q4 0
Remaining schedule:
(Q1 6, Q2 3, Q3 2)
Th 1/29 Q3 82 CU
Sn 2/1 Q2a @ 89 KSU
St 2/7 Q2b 59 BU
Tu 2/10 Q1b @ 44 TCU
St 2/14 Q1a 15 KU
M 2/16 Q1a 11 UH
St 2/21 Q1a @ 12 BYU
Tu 2/24 Q2b @ 115 UU
St 2/28 Q1b 18 TTU
M 3/2 Q1a @ 1 UA
St 3/7 Q3 88 ASU
3/10-14 Big 12 Tournament
Iowa State NET 7
18-2, 13-0 NC, 5-2 Conf (T5th)
Home 11-0, Away 3-2, Neutral 4-0
NET SOS 51, RPI SOS 73
KPI 10, SOR 7, WAB10, BPI 6, POM 6, T Rank 9
Q1 5-1
..Q1a 2-1 (A 10 Purdue +23, A 15 KU -21, N 25 St John’s +1)
..Q1b 3-0 (H 21 Iowa +4, A 59 BU +10, A 73 OSU +13)
Q2 5-1
..Q2a 2-1 (H 38 UCF +30, N 61 Creighton +18, A 78 UC -9)
..Q2b 3-0 (H 65 WVU +21, H 73 OSU +12, N 79 Syracuse +31)
Q3 1-0 (N 106 Miss St +16)
Q4 7-0 (H 271 Grambling +40, H 244 Long Beach +31, H 305 EIU +25, H 310 HCU +28, H 328 FDU +38, H 341 Stonehill +39, H 352 Alcorn +64)
Notes:
- RPI SOS is continuing to climb.
- ISU resume looking good with 10 combined Q1 and Q2 wins and no losses below Q2a. And the Cincy loss is just a few spots from rising to a Q1b game.
- From 10 FEB through 02 MAR ISU currently has 6 of 7 games as Q1. Five of those games are against top 20 NET teams - all likely tourney locks.
6 Home, 5 Away
Q1 6 (3H, 3A)
Q2 3 (1H, 2A)
Q3 2 (2H, 0A)
Q4 0
Remaining schedule:
(Q1 6, Q2 3, Q3 2)
Th 1/29 Q3 82 CU
Sn 2/1 Q2a @ 89 KSU
St 2/7 Q2b 59 BU
Tu 2/10 Q1b @ 44 TCU
St 2/14 Q1a 15 KU
M 2/16 Q1a 11 UH
St 2/21 Q1a @ 12 BYU
Tu 2/24 Q2b @ 115 UU
St 2/28 Q1b 18 TTU
M 3/2 Q1a @ 1 UA
St 3/7 Q3 88 ASU
3/10-14 Big 12 Tournament
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I can't wait for Arizona-BYU tonight. The Marriott Center is going to be wild.
The top of the Big 12 and Big 10 are exceptionally strong this year.
You've got Arizona, Houston, Texas Tech, Iowa State and BYU in the Big 12 and Michigan, Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois and Nebraska in the Big Ten.
Honestly, this has been one of the most enjoyable seasons of College Basketball that I've witnessed in a long time and it's just getting started.
The top of the Big 12 and Big 10 are exceptionally strong this year.
You've got Arizona, Houston, Texas Tech, Iowa State and BYU in the Big 12 and Michigan, Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois and Nebraska in the Big Ten.
Honestly, this has been one of the most enjoyable seasons of College Basketball that I've witnessed in a long time and it's just getting started.
As much as I hate to say it, if they can keep their lottery pick freshman's helicopter parents out of it and can have him available consistently, KU will be in that conversation as well.
