I worry about almost every game:
- there are so many middling teams in the Big12 capable of balling out one night
- its a long season and you just will lose a few / have a few bad nights
- being undefeated can get in your head and produce a bad night
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
I'll add to this one -- having "#2" next to your name paints a target on you.
You're going to get everybody's best game. Everybody wants to take down Goliath. And the Big 12 is littered with bubble or near-bubble teams that could really use a Q1A win over the Cyclones.
Good problem to have, but it is how the remainder of the season is going to go.
I'm sure nobody is rushing to post this update.
Blah.
Blah.
If ISU loses 5-6 games in the Big 12 I'll still be happy.
I don't think the majority here would be happy with 6 losses, short of injuries. We had pretty significant injuries last year, weren't as good as this team, and had 7 losses so I think 6 would be a disappointment.
Not any more I think it will be ISU's best game since Purdue.
That said there is a helping of crow in the fridge just in case
Well why don't we just go ahead and win the next 9 headed into Provo and see what happens.
This was the 3rd worst (+,-) game of the entire TJ era. The only ones worse were Iowa in his 2nd year and the Texas Tech Big 12 tournament game.
In modern ISU history (Orr until now), I think it would be the 3rd best regular season win % after the two regular season conference title winning teams.
So in essence, a majority are expecting ISU to win this league.
Looking at the next 7 games:
Pro: Good opportunity to get back on a winning track and playing cyclone basketball
Con: Can't afford to lose any of those 7 games if this team has aspirations of a 1 or 2 seed IMO
honestly, I thought before tonight games at TCU, KU, Colorado, and K state were all coin flips. And I still think that. The scout is out there now and Baylor tried to do the same thing. It's going to be make ISU play half court offense, don't turn it over in a live ball situation, get to the hoop and and get someone in foul trouble because ISU will foul, and you have a good chance to be in the game late. ISU is unlikely to be efficient enough in the half court offensively to really blow you out if you take care of the ball. It's not good or bad, it's just always going to be the same thing. It's just how the team plays.
I'd add the 8th game, home vs Kansas.
But I certainly don't see these as 8 sure wins. It may not include AZ, BYU or Houston, but several of these will be very challenging.
Next 3 games are sneaky tough. Should win all 3 but the odds of that happening based on those winning percentages are only 58%. Get back on the horse and take care of business.
I said this in a previous thread, but I think we got exposed pretty badly. If this doesn't get cleaned up quick, it's going to be another early NCAA Tournament exit. The faster we accept that this year's team is a good/solid team and not a great/elite team the more we can enjoy this season.
With the strength of our non con (with is looking better by the day), this is where I'd expect NCAA Tournament seeding based on conference record.
1 Seed: 15-3, 14-4, 13-5
2 seed: 12-6
3 seed: 11-7
4 seed: 10-8
I don't think people realize there will hardly be any teams that will have the metrics ISU will have by season end due to the difficult non conference slate.
For example, the 23-24 team that got a 2 seed went 13-5 in league play, but had losses to Va Tech and Texas A&M in non con with no Q1 wins. That's why I think this team can get a 1 seed with that record, because they will be bringing 4 Q1 wins from non con with them.
1 Seed: 15-3, 14-4, 13-5
2 seed: 12-6
3 seed: 11-7
4 seed: 10-8
I don't think people realize there will hardly be any teams that will have the metrics ISU will have by season end due to the difficult non conference slate.
For example, the 23-24 team that got a 2 seed went 13-5 in league play, but had losses to Va Tech and Texas A&M in non con with no Q1 wins. That's why I think this team can get a 1 seed with that record, because they will be bringing 4 Q1 wins from non con with them.
I think the jury is still out.
This team has real accomplishments.
St. John's and Iowa and at Baylor were very nice wins. At Purdue is still an elite win.
The last few weeks have definitely felt clunky compared to last semester, though.
Sleepy games/don't beat the spread against three Q4 cupcakes.
Get down early to WVU even if you turn it around in the second half. Same deal with Oklahoma State in winning but didn't feel like you dominated that game/missed the spread by ~9.
The offense just hasn't had the same flow or efficiency. Toure has hit a freshman wall.
Fouling way too much. Not getting a commensurate number of turnovers with it.
They just look a bit tired and we're not sneaking up on anybody in the Big 12... which we expected.
It's a very good team but still mortal.
All these problems have more than offsetting benefits, though, and I still think this team is one of the favorites nationally to make the Final Four. They've just got to get back to playing their best.
Literally every other contender for 1, 2 and 3 seeds played a more difficult non-con than Iowa State. Nebraska is the exception but I don't think they'll legitimately be at that level on Selection Sunday.
KenPom Non-Con SOS-
Michigan 14
Arizona 110
Purdue 37
Iowa State 254
Vanderbilt 130
Illinois 104
Houston 167
Gonzaga 36
Duke 57
UConn 30
There comes a point where you can't play 7 or 8 absolutely dog **** games every year, especially when you're good enough to roll through any Q3 opponent you can which improves the overall profile. Purdue played 7 Q3s and 2 Q4s, they weren't challenged in any of them, but it makes that number so much better.
I don't have to convince myself that this team is less than I thought it was before last night just to deal with a loss at KU. It's kind of ridiculous to me that a lot of you feel like you have to lower your expectations so you don't lose your **** after a loss and can enjoy the season, but you do you.
See, I just don't get this. Barring injuries, this is a team that entered conference play being predicted to go 15-3 or 16-2 in the league. Losing that many would mean we were nowhere close to winning the league, again, in a year in which we entered league play as the co-favorites or maybe 2nd behind Arizona. Would it be a good season for ISU historically? No doubt. But it would be a disappointment based on how this current year's team had played in the non-conference.
