2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
https://adamcwisports.blogspot.com/p/every-possession-counts.html
How is T-Rank different from Kenpom?
The short answer is that T-Rank is very similar to Kenpom, which is no surprise given that T-Rank is basically an offshoot of Kenpom. But there are three main sources of difference:
GameScript and Garbage Time
The incorporation of the GameScript stat, and its omission of garbage time gives T-Rank a slightly unique aspect. Whether it's a good aspect is another question.
Pythags versus Efficiency Margins
Prior to the 2017 season, Kenpom switched away from the pythagorean expectancy / log5 method, to a still very similar system that uses adjusted "efficiency margins" (EMs) instead. The main difference is that instead of being multiplicative, the new Kenpom system is additive. So the basic formula is:Game Adj. OE = (PPP - Average PPP) - (Opponent's Adj. DE - Average PPP) + Average PPP
For our neutral court example above that would be:
(110 - 100) - (90 - 100) + 100 = 120
So, similar, but a little different. When Kenpom decided to go to adjusted EMs, I decided to stick with the Barthag, for old time's sake.
Secret Sauce
Here are the additional adjustments I make:- There's a recency bias—all games in the last 40 days count 100%, then degrade 1% per day until they're 80 days old, after which all games count 60%.
- An adjustment that discounts blowouts in mismatches—if the margin of victory (MOV) is more than 10 points and the difference in Barthags is above a threshold, the game starts getting discounted. If the MOV is 20 points or higher, the discount is (Higher Barthag - Lower Barthag - .5) * 2. So if a team with a Barthag of .8000 is playing a team with a Barthag of .2000, and it wins by 20 points, the game value will be 1 - (.8 - .2 -.5) * 2, or 80%
- As with Kenpom, there is also a preseason component that is phased out once a team has played 13 adjusted games (since not all games count for 100% of a game, it typically sticks around for 15 or 16 games).
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I know some people get really into the football recruiting and especially with the transfer portal activity, but I've definitely been at the point where I'm just 100% on basketball and flushing football until its time to show up and cheer for the team next fall (though i'm sure the summer hype machine may start that sooner).
I like it. His defender generally isn't equipped to apply severe 1 on 1 pressure to a ball handler 60' from the basket so it gives the actual guards a break without stressing JJeff much.
Frankly I like the way they mix it up. You will see Tamin and JJeff bring it up a lot with Toure not too far behind. Mixing it up doesn't wear anyone out much allowing everyone to be sharp when it is time to apply some defensive hell.
Football being a much larger team also has a lot more guys to talk about.
We also lost basically our entire team, so understandable that there's so much chatter/focus on football right now despite having perhaps the best MBB team in the country.
I find basketball recruiting/portal a lot more interesting since the impact of one player is so much greater in BB vs. FB. In BB one great player can turn a bad team into a good team. In FB basically the whole team has to be good or you probably won't be all that good.
We also lost basically our entire team, so understandable that there's so much chatter/focus on football right now despite having perhaps the best MBB team in the country.
I find basketball recruiting/portal a lot more interesting since the impact of one player is so much greater in BB vs. FB. In BB one great player can turn a bad team into a good team. In FB basically the whole team has to be good or you probably won't be all that good.
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Apologies if mentioned earlier in the thread but in a podcast I was listening to recently they made the comparison to Draymond Green without all the extra bs. Seems about right to me given the similarities in athletic profile, facilitating, and impacting winning.
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Draymond is a great comp.
The most versatile two-way PF you could possibly imagine. He doesn't have any singular outstanding skill but he does everything a basketball player needs to do on the court at a very high level.
Plus I doubt Joshua comes with the all-time headcase Draymond offers.
(Even if it was amusing sometimes, like the time he kicked LeBron in the nuts and cost the Dubs a chip.)
I enjoyed Wemby's recent interaction with Draymond.
Two things:
- Don't look now, but ISU's NET SOS (59) is almost on par with Arizona's (54) now.
- Can someone explain KPI to me? That ranking has hated ISU from the start and still ranks ISU worse than any of the other rankings that appear on the Committee's Nitty Gritty team sheets.
- Don't look now, but ISU's NET SOS (59) is almost on par with Arizona's (54) now.
- Can someone explain KPI to me? That ranking has hated ISU from the start and still ranks ISU worse than any of the other rankings that appear on the Committee's Nitty Gritty team sheets.
Never heard of it personally but here's an article:
www.ncaa.com
What is KPI in college basketball?
KPI helps determine NCAA tournament selection and seeding. Here's what you need to know about it.
www.ncaa.com
Agreed. Honestly aside from coaching changes, that month after the season ends is probably the best time of year for the premium forum with the basketball portal updates.
I'm following who they pickup in the transfer portal but yeah we have possibly the best bball team in school history so focusing on that
Not saying we should expect an NBA career like Grant Hill had but as far as Senior Year AA season and style, tell me where the gap is.
Attachments
So maybe it’s primarily that Torvik discounts our buy game blowouts (and maybe doesn’t care that Purdue was 25 point instead of 15pt win? But that’s not a mismatch) whereas KenPom just adjusts for opponent quality and keeps every possession of ever game.
It’s weird though because some of the lowest quality games were buy games
I recall Hill being a lot more perimeter- and above-the-rim-oriented than Jefferson's game, but I'm mostly remembering his NBA career here, didn't watch a lot of Grant in college.
LeBron's not a terrible comp if you ask me, obviously not in terms of ability/talent level but just style of play I mean. Especially the old man / Floor Jordan version of recent LeBron.
LeBron's not a terrible comp if you ask me, obviously not in terms of ability/talent level but just style of play I mean. Especially the old man / Floor Jordan version of recent LeBron.
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In addition to @Sigmapolis's post, I thought I saw somewhere that Pomeroy adjusted his formula before this year to more aggressively move teams based on current-season results (that is, lose the preseason information faster).
Now I can't find anywhere where he said that, but it does seem like it could be true this year with how Iowa State shot up on Kenpom. I think in Otz's early seasons, it was flipped, with Torvik reacting faster to Iowa State overperforming. Or I might be completely misremembering.
I think I mentioned it in another thread, but Jefferson's top comp on Kenpom right now is actually Draymond's senior season. (Seth Tuttle in his senior year at UNI is also an interesting one.)
