2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[cyclones500]

Kst was 1st though wasn't it? That one bothered me, BYU is at least a decent team.

Yes, K-State loss was about a month prior to BYU loss (a multi-OT defeat). By that point we knew injury plague had taken a toll and BYU was starting a late-season ascent. I think in “real time” KSU stung a lot more. (Although ISU did balance by winning in Manhattan).

 

[KennyPratt42]

Was looking through our remaining conference games win odds on TR and grouping them together.

Disaster if we lose:
ASU 96.5%
CO 96%
OSU 94.9%
@ Utah 93.9%
UCF 91.9%

Would be an upset:
Baylor 85.3%
@OSU 85%
@KSU 82.9%
@Cin 82%

Games that will most determine if we win the league:
TT 80.6%
KS 78.4%
@TCU 76.8%
Houston 71.2%
@ Baylor 67.4%
@KS 57.5%

We're underdogs:
@ BYU 48%
@AZ 37.4%


There has been a lot of talk about how backloaded our conference schedule is, but our two biggest swing games of the season (based on expectations) come in the next week. Win them both and we are really well positioned to make a run at a conference championship, split them and we've effectively held serve in the conference race, and lose them both and it will be an uphill battle the rest of the way.

 

[MartyFine]

 

[CycloneNoah13]

Thankfully it seems like our NC opponents have righted the ship at least a little bit. Creighton, Cuse, and Miss State are all back to Q2 with Creighton borderline Q1. All 3 were in low-mid 100s not too long ago.

 

[not-the-manager]

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Am I crazy saying you may have to go undefeated in January to have a shot at a 1 seed? As of today Michigan is a lock. They also get Nebraska at home. You only get one crack at Arizona, and it’s on the road. Gonzaga is going to plow through its conference, and UConn should mostly do the same. You’re likely losing at BYU. To be sure, head-to-head at Purdue, and getting Houston at home are nice. But I’m looking at UConn, Duke, Gonzaga, and Nebraska as stiff 1-seed competition assuming Arizona and Michigan are two

 

[twincyties]

Am I crazy saying you may have to go undefeated in January to have a shot at a 1 seed? As of today Michigan is a lock. They also get Nebraska at home. You only get one crack at Arizona, and it’s on the road. Gonzaga is going to plow through its conference, and UConn should mostly do the same. You’re likely losing at BYU. To be sure, head-to-head at Purdue, and getting Houston at home are nice. But I’m looking at UConn, Duke, Gonzaga, and Nebraska as stiff 1-seed competition assuming Arizona and Michigan are two

No. I think winner of Big 12 gets a one seed unless the winner takes like 5 losses in conference. Otherwise - to your point Michigan is looking like a lock. one of UConn or Gonzaga will get one. Probably Duke if they win the ACC (which they should). I don't see any way the Big 12 gets more than one and I am not sure we can win the Big 12 taking more than 1 loss before we get to that brutal stretch at the end.

 

[flycy]

Am I crazy saying you may have to go undefeated in January to have a shot at a 1 seed? As of today Michigan is a lock. They also get Nebraska at home. You only get one crack at Arizona, and it’s on the road. Gonzaga is going to plow through its conference, and UConn should mostly do the same. You’re likely losing at BYU. To be sure, head-to-head at Purdue, and getting Houston at home are nice. But I’m looking at UConn, Duke, Gonzaga, and Nebraska as stiff 1-seed competition assuming Arizona and Michigan are two

Nebraska? Easy bud the shine will come off really quick when they lose. Shocked to see them in a list of defensive efficiency though.

 

[GoodOleDays]

Am I crazy saying you may have to go undefeated in January to have a shot at a 1 seed? As of today Michigan is a lock. They also get Nebraska at home. You only get one crack at Arizona, and it’s on the road. Gonzaga is going to plow through its conference, and UConn should mostly do the same. You’re likely losing at BYU. To be sure, head-to-head at Purdue, and getting Houston at home are nice. But I’m looking at UConn, Duke, Gonzaga, and Nebraska as stiff 1-seed competition assuming Arizona and Michigan are two

Agreed. Someone's gonna get stiffed and I hope it's not the Big 12. Gonzaga, Duke and UConn should run the table in their conferences. ISU is the sole blemish for Purdue rn.

AZ's resume is insane. Houston's only loss is Tennessee and Sampson and they could go very strong through conference play. BYU's only loss is UConn. We might all screw each other over in the Big 12.

Not as worried about Nebraska. Love what they're doing but metrics don't suggest they're 1 seed material.

Regardless, there's gonna be some angry 1 seeds on the 2 line

 

[NoCreativity]

Am I crazy saying you may have to go undefeated in January to have a shot at a 1 seed? As of today Michigan is a lock. They also get Nebraska at home. You only get one crack at Arizona, and it’s on the road. Gonzaga is going to plow through its conference, and UConn should mostly do the same. You’re likely losing at BYU. To be sure, head-to-head at Purdue, and getting Houston at home are nice. But I’m looking at UConn, Duke, Gonzaga, and Nebraska as stiff 1-seed competition assuming Arizona and Michigan are two

Lol, Nebraska isn't getting a 1 seed.

 

[not-the-manager]

Nebraska? Easy bud the shine will come off really quick when they lose. Shocked to see them in a list of defensive efficiency though.

Agreed. Someone's gonna get stiffed and I hope it's not the Big 12. Gonzaga, Duke and UConn should run the table in their conferences. ISU is the sole blemish for Purdue rn.

AZ's resume is insane. Houston's only loss is Tennessee and Sampson and they could go very strong through conference play. BYU's only loss is UConn. We might all screw each other over in the Big 12.

Not as worried about Nebraska. Love what they're doing but metrics don't suggest they're 1 seed material.

Regardless, there's gonna be some angry 1 seeds on the 2 line

Lol, Nebraska isn't getting a 1 seed.

I don't think Nebraska's one of the four best teams in the country. I do think the Big Ten is extremely top heavy, and they play three of the top five teams at home (already beat one). Losses at Michigan and Iowa won't hurt them. They can beat Illinois again at home. If they won two of @ Indiana, vs. Purdue, and vs. Iowa I'm not sure what the blemish on their resume would be. Yes, it's a long season and they will probably trip up

 

[twincyties]

Agreed. Someone's gonna get stiffed and I hope it's not the Big 12. Gonzaga, Duke and UConn should run the table in their conferences. ISU is the sole blemish for Purdue rn.

AZ's resume is insane. Houston's only loss is Tennessee and Sampson and they could go very strong through conference play. BYU's only loss is UConn. We might all screw each other over in the Big 12.

Not as worried about Nebraska. Love what they're doing but metrics don't suggest they're 1 seed material.

Regardless, there's gonna be some angry 1 seeds on the 2 line

This is exactly why I think we only get a single one seed unless something crazy happens like Zona ends with 1 loss and we end with 2.

I expect the committee to honor the conference champion if the other top 3/4 teams stay true to form.

If I had to predict right now, I'd say Big 12 gets one 1-seed, two 2-seeds, and a 3-seed.

 

[NorthCyd]

Gonzaga needed overtime to beat a bad Seattle team at home and everyone thinks its a lock they go undefeated in conference. Ok.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Nebraska? Easy bud the shine will come off really quick when they lose. Shocked to see them in a list of defensive efficiency though.

The computers think they're a good team but a "sham" as a #1 seed.

Their offense just doesn't have the firepower to stay up there.

Torvik projects them as a #4 seed right now (and barely the last one).

 

[MartyFine]

 

[bosco]

It's over boys, I think I might be color blind.

 

[ChickenNuggetMan]

This is the consistency of an elite team. We’ve never had a chart that looks like this.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I would have thought we'd take a step back after last year on losing Curtis Jones alone.

But we haven't. We're significantly better.

I thought we'd be missing the high-volume high-efficiency scoring guard that was CuJo. A guy who is going to hit big threes and just ******* go and get a bucket when the team needs it. Every championship team needs a guy like that guy. The guy who gets to the lane and hits that floater when you need it.

We're not. We had him the whole time. It's called a healthy Tamin Lipsey.

Jefferson has found another gear.

Momcilovic has found another gear.

Heise hasn't made a huge leap but at least picked up where he left off last year.

Toure is better than an injured Gilbert by a mile.

Buchanan is a tremendous upgrade on Jackson. Pleta is at worst a push with Chatfield.

Batemon and Nelson are guard depth we didn't have last year unless you count Watson and Kelderman.

Amazing how this roster and team has come together.

 

[rosshm16]

7.4 assists/turnover for Tamin on the year

 

[Cyclonepride]

7.4 assists/turnover for Tamin on the year

If Tamin played for a media darling, he’d be talked about as the best point guard in the country

 

[madguy30]

If Tamin played for a media darling, he’d be talked about as the best point guard in the country

Him doing the 'that was a dunk!' thing to his bench last night in the middle of what was still very much a game that wasn't over was one of my favorite things I've seen in quite a while from ISU sports.

So far the 'behind the scenes' aspect is some sort of internal jokes about that kind of stuff, like how Milan did similar in Vegas.