2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

cyfan92

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I already see A LOT of brackets projecting us to Milwaukee, but is there a reason why we would want Milwaukee over Denver for rounds 1 and 2 of March Madness??

Skiing in between ISU games would be a dream!
 

Bader

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I already see A LOT of brackets projecting us to Milwaukee, but is there a reason why we would want Milwaukee over Denver for rounds 1 and 2 of March Madness??

Skiing in between ISU games would be a dream!
Seeds 1-4 are assigned pods in order based on distance from campus
 
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Sigmapolis

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In terms of March success, I think the belief in them turning it up is basically true philosophically speaking. There isn’t a system that prevents outlier (5%) from ruining a season, or that it won’t show up March

Where it matters is in winning regular season games that in theory set you up with a more forgiving path on March. We didn’t exactly grind out wins on random Tuesday winter nights, and that left a few Hoiberg and Prohm teams facing a tougher challenge in ncaa

For me , that Royce team in particular a missed opportunity, and is a Sweet 16 or better had they been more consistent in the regular season. The following year we were better than a 10 seed, and our tournament performance good enough for S16 had we been a better seed

I think the "you don't take a possession off on defense" mentality gives you an easier path through the first weekend. As you mentioned, the Royce team was a #8 seed and bumped into #1 and eventual national champion Kentucky early. The #6 Prohm team had to play #11 Ohio St. in Tulsa (a game I went to) in the first game rather than having some sacrificial lamb low-major AQ in that first game. Ohio St. wasn't a great team that year, but they had P6 athletes and played in the Big Ten and not in some hapless low-major league.

After that though, I don't think seeding matters all that much.

Everybody save maybe one Cinderella is a damn good college basketball team by the second weekend.
 
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Sigmapolis

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SEC is tough but those teams are going to separate once they start playing each other. I don’t see any way possible one conference gets theee #1 seeds

Yeah, I agree, no way they receive three #1 seeds. I could see two, though.

The Big 12 is probably owed at least one... so gotta establish you're ahead of Houston and Kansas.

Seeds 1-4 are assigned pods in order based on distance from campus

I thought it was essentially a "draft" where they rank #1 through #16.

Then #1 is assigned to its closest destination. Then #2. Then #3, etc.

Once a location has two teams, then it is removed from the board. It is full.

That is why you might see teams #13 through #16 shipped out to Seattle or Providence (relatively isolated places in the corners of the country without many high-impact teams nearby, save maybe Gonzaga, with so many of the best teams in the country being midwestern or southeastern this year).

The only real threats to draft Milwaukee before Iowa St. are Illinois and maybe Kansas. Kansas has Wichita down the road, but it might be passed over with Houston and Marquette. Marquette being unable to take the Milwaukee bid as the host also helps make that more likely as a landing spot for the Cyclones.
 

ClubCy

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Yeah, I agree, no way they receive three #1 seeds. I could see two, though.

The Big 12 is probably owed at least one... so gotta establish you're ahead of Houston and Kansas.



I thought it was essentially a "draft" where they rank #1 through #16.

Then #1 is assigned to its closest destination. Then #2. Then #3, etc.

Once a location has two teams, then it is removed from the board. It is full.

That is why you might see teams #13 through #16 shipped out to Seattle or Providence (relatively isolated places in the corners of the country without many high-impact teams nearby, save maybe Gonzaga, with so many of the best teams in the country being midwestern or southeastern this year).

The only real threats to draft Milwaukee before Iowa St. are Illinois and maybe Kansas. Kansas has Wichita down the road, but it might be passed over with Houston and Marquette. Marquette being unable to take the Milwaukee bid as the host also helps make that more likely as a landing spot for the Cyclones.
I also would want to avoid the East Region, if possible. I know UCONN isn’t UCONN from the past two years but I don’t even want the possibility of having to play them in NJ in the S16/E8.
 

Bader

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I thought it was essentially a "draft" where they rank #1 through #16.

Then #1 is assigned to its closest destination. Then #2. Then #3, etc.

Once a location has two teams, then it is removed from the board. It is full.
Sorry, that is my understanding as well. I meant the 1s are assigned in order, then 2s, and so on
 

Sigmapolis

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I also would want to avoid the East Region, if possible. I know UCONN isn’t UCONN from the past two years but I don’t even want the possibility of having to play them in NJ in the S16/E8.

Indianapolis would be ideal.

I would probably put San Francisco second.

Yeah, it is isolated, but that is the point. None of our likely antagonists are likely to bring much of a crowd out there in comparison to Iowa St., so we would have that comparative advantage.

Atlanta would be a nightmare against an SEC team.

Newark wouldn't be a ton better against some of the ACC schools (e.g., Duke or North Carolina) or somebody like UConn as you mentioned. I just really hope not to be in the Atlanta regional.
 

ClubCy

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Indianapolis would be ideal.

I would probably put San Francisco second.

Yeah, it is isolated, but that is the point. None of our likely antagonists are likely to bring much of a crowd out there in comparison to Iowa St., so we would have that comparative advantage.

Atlanta would be a nightmare against an SEC team.

Newark wouldn't be a ton better against some of the ACC schools (e.g., Duke or North Carolina) or somebody like UConn as you mentioned. I just really hope not to be in the Atlanta regional.
Probably too early to worry about any of this at the moment but yes Atlanta would be a nightmare and NJ with UConn or Duke (huge alumni base in NYC) as a 2-4 seed. It would essentially be a true road game vs. a SEC team in Atlanta or Duke/Uconn in NJ.
 

cyclones500

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SEC is tough but those teams are going to separate once they start playing each other. I don’t see any way possible one conference gets theee #1 seeds
I think it has occurred only twice in NCAAT history, so it'd be an outlier, but SEC performance/metric in non-con this season, it's possible.

2009 (Big East): Connecticut, Louisville, Pitt.
2019 (ACC): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia.
 
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cyfan92

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Indianapolis would be ideal.

I would probably put San Francisco second.

Yeah, it is isolated, but that is the point. None of our likely antagonists are likely to bring much of a crowd out there in comparison to Iowa St., so we would have that comparative advantage.

Atlanta would be a nightmare against an SEC team.

Newark wouldn't be a ton better against some of the ACC schools (e.g., Duke or North Carolina) or somebody like UConn as you mentioned. I just really hope not to be in the Atlanta regional.

Yep, I agree
  1. Indy
  2. San Fran
  3. Newark
  4. ATL
Threats in SF are Gonzaga, UCLA, Arizona, and Oregon. However, I would rather play ANY of those teams in SF versus having to play UCONN, Duke, or UNC in Newark or playing a top SEC school in ATL.

Final Four is in San Antonio... We'd travel there as well as any fanbase!

First Round preferences for me are:
  1. Denver
  2. Milwaukee
  3. Wichita - Unless paired with Kansas, then I don't want it
  4. Seattle
 
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cyclimate

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I think it has occurred only twice in NCAAT history, so it'd be an outlier, but SEC performance/metric in non-con this season, it's possible.

2009 (Big East): Connecticut, Louisville, Pitt.
2019 (ACC): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia.
Big East back in the 80s
 

NorthCyd

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I already see A LOT of brackets projecting us to Milwaukee, but is there a reason why we would want Milwaukee over Denver for rounds 1 and 2 of March Madness??

Skiing in between ISU games would be a dream!
Because the drive is literally half the distance from Ames and you would get a lot more Cyclone fans in Milwaukee.
 

mj4cy

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I already see A LOT of brackets projecting us to Milwaukee, but is there a reason why we would want Milwaukee over Denver for rounds 1 and 2 of March Madness??

Skiing in between ISU games would be a dream!

Skiing during spring break means hours long lift lines...
 
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NorthCyd

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Denver is very large alum base for ISU, we'd travel very well to both
I appreciate your hope to combine a ski vacation with an ncaa tournament ISU game, but you know if the season goes the way we all hope it does they are going to Milwaukee. I think the NCAA just automatically selects the closest city, but even if the AD has a say there is zero chance they choose Denver over Milwaukee.