2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

[CychiatricWard]

Recall you posted:
“I sincerely thought that LAST year especially we were NOT good defensively early in the year.”

NOT good


You didn’t say “not elite”.

There’s never been a time under TJ in which I thought the defense was NOT good. I can’t remember thinking they even weren’t very good (top-40).

At this time last year I thought they were very good, maybe elite, based on both metrics and eye test. Bob Jones and Ward in particular looked elite in the front court, better than the year prior, doing traps/switches from the front court few can match

The past few offseason there’s been discussion on the merits of sacrificing some defense. I don’t know if this occurring this year was desired by the staff, but it was predictable/expected as we replace the frontcourt.

I will stand on this hill until it doesn’t happen, but I think breaking in a getting healthy Jefferson, Jackson, Chatfield, and Heise was going to take some time. Completely new and different front court and a new guard. Add in a getting back to healthy Tamin you have a recipe for for not as good defense. I really think the focus was on pushing the pace and scoring more early on this year. Which we have seen in numbers. The defense will come around.

From what I’ve seen Jefferson’s was known as a very good defender at Saint Mary’s, Heise we’ve seen can lockdown, and we all know what tamin can do. I think we really are just a step slow at the moment, which TJ and crew will clean up.

 

[AuH2O]

Recall you posted:
“I sincerely thought that LAST year especially we were NOT good defensively early in the year.”

NOT good


You didn’t say “not elite”.

There’s never been a time under TJ in which I thought the defense was NOT good. I can’t remember thinking they even weren’t very good (top-40).

At this time last year I thought they were very good, maybe elite, based on both metrics and eye test. Bob Jones and Ward in particular looked elite in the front court, better than the year prior, doing traps/switches from the front court few can match

The past few offseason there’s been discussion on the merits of sacrificing some defense. I don’t know if this occurring this year was desired by the staff, but it was predictable/expected as we replace the frontcourt.

I think the performances v. VT and TAMU had people a little pessimistic, along with the Ward injury. Though the D was fine, those games put a damper on the season temporarily , since I think A&M was also missing some starters.

 

[Cloned4Life]

Recall you posted:
“I sincerely thought that LAST year especially we were NOT good defensively early in the year.”

NOT good


You didn’t say “not elite”.

There’s never been a time under TJ in which I thought the defense was NOT good. I can’t remember thinking they even weren’t very good (top-40).

At this time last year I thought they were very good, maybe elite, based on both metrics and eye test. Bob Jones and Ward in particular looked elite in the front court, better than the year prior, doing traps/switches from the front court few can match

The past few offseason there’s been discussion on the merits of sacrificing some defense. I don’t know if this occurring this year was desired by the staff, but it was predictable/expected as we replace the frontcourt.

Me: "Without seeing the metrics, anecdotally did you think we were ELITE defensively (or even very good) in the non-conference last year?"

I am confused why you had to "recall" my post, so I guess I'll just shortcut here and recall and copy/paste my previous post to try to get ahead of your reply, which will for some reason be very anti-my position, which I guess is that - I truly believe we will be better defensively in conference play than we've showed thus far this season, while in the back of my mind simultaneously I am a bit perplexed that our metrics show us as a 47th rated defense because I thought - outside of course the bigs not being "as good" in their rotations (how could they be?), my eye test tells me that we have been pretty solid overall defensively for the most part)

I think I got it though - you believe we were "very good" (not elite - let's be sure to triple down on that word) defensively at this point last year (and hey - the metrics prove it, so I got nothin further), although I find it a bit suspicious that Hason Ward displayed elite defensive ability in the (only) 3 early non-conference games that he played in last season, against nobodies, 2 of them 15 minutes, much of it in garbage time. He certainly became really damn good down the stretch, which was fun to see. I would give anything to have him back another year.

Anyway - go Cyclones, and Merry Christmas!

 

[Cloned4Life]

I will stand on this hill until it doesn’t happen, but I think breaking in a getting healthy Jefferson, Jackson, Chatfield, and Heise was going to take some time. Completely new and different front court and a new guard. Add in a getting back to healthy Tamin you have a recipe for for not as good defense. I really think the focus was on pushing the pace and scoring more early on this year. Which we have seen in numbers. The defense will come around.

From what I’ve seen Jefferson’s was known as a very good defender at Saint Mary’s, Heise we’ve seen can lockdown, and we all know what tamin can do. I think we really are just a step slow at the moment, which TJ and crew will clean up.

Well said. Totally agree.

 

[Dgilbertson]

It was top 10 before Morgan State. I understand they werent great on D for that game, but it was still one game that ISU won easily. I get it's tempting to play the "if you remove pre-season weighting" game, but there is a reason models don't do that. 11 games, many of which are lopsided against bad teams, is not a lot of data points. Plus teams with some important new pieces, like Iowa State, take some time to round into form. This coaching staff knows how to coach defense and I am confident they will continue to improve in that area as the season goes along.

Are ppl doing the same “remove non-con” from our competition only doing so for ISU?

 

[Dgilbertson]

I think the performances v. VT and TAMU had people a little pessimistic, along with the Ward injury. Though the D was fine, those games put a damper on the season temporarily , since I think A&M was also missing some starters.

Ward injury was a blessing in disguise felt at the time.

 

[NENick]

Ward injury was a blessing in disguise felt at the time.

And so was Lipsey's. That one game absence was the start of Jones becoming a key piece.

 

[bosco]

The 2 worse rated games per Torvik so far is the Dayton game where we had an 132.5 AdjOff which is scorching and a 111.9 AdjDef which is the worse defensive game to date.

The Morgan State game we had an AdjOff rating of 116.7, not too bad, and an AdjDef of 107.9, 2nd worse to date.

This year's team seems to be the inverse of last year's team where last season if we did poorly it was due to bad offense and this year's team it's due to sub par defense.

 

[Letterkenny]

The 2 worse rated games per Torvik so far is the Dayton game where we had an 132.5 AdjOff which is scorching and a 111.9 AdjDef which is the worse defensive game to date.

The Morgan State game we had an AdjOff rating of 116.7, not too bad, and an AdjDef of 107.9, 2nd worse to date.

This year's team seems to be the inverse of last year's team where last season if we did poorly it was due to bad offense and this year's team it's due to sub par defense.

It felt like both teams went 8-9 minute stretches without getting stops in the Dayton game. I know at one point they scored like 10-11 straight possessions and basically didn't expand their lead at all.

 

[cyatheart]

I think another thing playing into this….overall, teams that can, have adjusted to the trapping to some degree.

 

[madguy30]

I think another thing playing into this….overall, teams that can, have adjusted to the trapping to some degree.

Seems to be more on the interior although I'd need to see shot charts.

A guy like BRE had great lateral movement and created havoc in the lane.

 

[Cyhig]

I would just like to say it’s great to be discussing computer analytics instead of generalities

Meaning, when things re going good, we have to look at detailed data to find some flaws. When things are going bad, we simply look at the team record in and discuss general ways the team could actually win a game

 

[madguy30]

I would just like to say it’s great to be discussing computer analytics instead of generalities

Meaning, when things re going good, we have to look at detailed data to find some flaws. When things are going bad, we simply look at the team record in and discuss general ways the team could actually win a game

And people seem to think Maui/Feast Week defines how everything else will go.

I think ISU can win Monday but I'm thinking they get jumped on a bit and it's more like the Iowa game.

We'll see if they can get stops when needed.

 

[CIAFarmer]

Well, good news, we are top 20 in Kenpom, and that's the one I always see cited for that stat.

It won’t stay that way when preseason bias is gone

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

We can talk all about how Morgan State made impossible shots all we want...I'm more concerned how easy it was for them to pass it inside for easy lay-ups (particularly in the 1st half.) Our bigs have been susceptible to coming to double or help out only to leave someone underneath for an easy lay-up, dunk or offensive rebound. They were better in the 2nd half but we also had a few more blocks underneath the basket too. I don't remember BRE, Ward or Jackson being this "loose" on the interior. Maybe I'm wrong. But I worry if this area doesn't get better defensively, the Big12 teams will exploit that more so than last year.

Just my two cents but we look like we are tired of playing buy games and the boys are ready for conference play.

 

[cyclone87]

Front court is more skilled and bulkier, but not as quick. Best lineup for the trapping D has been when we go small this year. Big Rob was incredibly quick on his feet and with his hands for a big guy. Thinking if we can stay top 10 offense and top 40 defense it will be a really good/great season. Excited to watch it play out.

 

[NorthCyd]

It won’t stay that way when preseason bias is gone

It was top 10 before Morgan State. I understand they werent great on D for that game, but it was still one game that ISU won easily. I get it's tempting to play the "if you remove pre-season weighting" game, but there is a reason models don't do that. 11 games, many of which are lopsided against bad teams, is not a lot of data points. Plus teams with some important new pieces, like Iowa State, take some time to round into form. This coaching staff knows how to coach defense and I am confident they will continue to improve in that area as the season goes along.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Good point. I figured last years results were mostly baked out by now, but that’s still a big impact.

I don’t think ISU is going to be as good defensively as last year. Rob and Ward were incredible at trapping and switching to stay in front of guards. The presidents don’t have their quickness or experience yet.

I’m not looking at anything but our blocked shot numbers have to be down it feels like. I feel like Tamin is our leading shot blocker.

 

[Statefan10]

I’m not looking at anything but our blocked shot numbers have to be down it feels like. I feel like Tamin is our leading shot blocker.

On a per game basis, our blocked shots are actually up so far - 3.6 to 3.1 last year. Dishon Jackson is averaging as many blocked shots as Ward did at 1.2 per game. Tamin is tied for 4th.

 

[Chitowncy]

On a per game basis, our blocked shots are actually up so far - 3.6 to 3.1 last year. Dishon Jackson is averaging as many blocked shots as Ward did at 1.2 per game. Tamin is tied for 4th.

That's surprising.