2022-2023 MBB computer projections thread

[cyclones500]

i just don't see us winning 13 B12 games, even 12 feels like a stretch to me.

boy would I love it, but we are also getting pretty banged up as a squad.

Getting to 13 won't be easy, that's for sure.

Several realistic combinations of W/L could get us there, but little margin for error.

In the simplest scenario, I assume it requires going 9-0 at home, for starters. That's feasible, but no guarantee.

I'd pencil-in/earmark/anticipate losing at least 2 of at UT, at KSU, at BU. Losing all is possible.

Then if all that occurs, or some combo therin, need sweeps of OU, WVa, Tech.

 

[HFCS]

Kind of related

There is some logic to making sure whomever emerges from B12 bloodbath as top team gets a #1 seed regardless of final record and right now at this moment that is ISU. If there's no 1 seed from Big 12 they really should dominate the 2-4 seeds with the top four teams in different regions.

I don't know that the conference has a NC contender this year like most recent years but nobody is going to want a top half big 12 team in those first two rounds. Look at TCU last year, they were ridiculously underseeded and played 1 seed AZ to overtime with Arizona playing at the closest site to their campus.

 

[HFCS]

So what happens if there's a three-way tie in record at the top of the standings?

Do we all get a banner?

Or does only the #1 seed in the Big 12 tournament get to claim that championship?

Iowa State is still #2 since Big 12 formed in outright conference championships.

It's crazy but just having 2 of them is more than any other Big 12 team besides KU.

Kansas State has never won Big 12 outright although one of their two shared titles should have been outright if not for a KU ref fix job. Oklahoma has ZERO outright and only one shared. Baylor only has one outright, no shared.

Texas has more titles than us with 3, but only one of them is outright.

Then in the B12 Tourney ISU is second only to KU and no other Big 12 team is even close to Iowa State.

 

[CyPunch]

Getting to 13 won't be easy, that's for sure.

Several realistic combinations of W/L could get us there, but little margin for error.

In the simples scenario, I assume it requires going 9-0 at home, for starters. That's feasible, but no guarantee.

I'd pencil-in/earmark/anticipate losing at least 2 of at UT, at KSU, at BU. Losing all is possible.

Then if all that occurs, or some combo therin, need sweeps of OU, WVa, Tech.

And just being realistic, I doubt we beat both WVU and Tech on the road. I also predicted 15 wins the entire season and a 6-12 Big 12 record so take it fwiw

 

[PizzaTheHutt]

If we win our next two big 12 road games Texas Tech and West Virginia. I will confidently say we win the conference. I don’t think we lose at home this year. I think the L’s would be at K State at Texas at Baylor. Lots can happen but that is the path.

 

[Jkclone15]

Have we ever swept West Virginia? I have a hard time seeing the boys beat Huggy twice no matter what his team looks like

 

[CascadeClone]

So what happens if there's a three-way tie in record at the top of the standings?

Do we all get a banner?

Or does only the #1 seed in the Big 12 tournament get to claim that championship?

More importantly, what about the $10 I put on Baylor at +800 to win the Big12? Is that a push if it is shared?

 

[cyclones500]

Have we ever swept West Virginia? I have a hard time seeing the boys beat Huggy twice no matter what his team looks like

Swept in 2014-15 ... I think that's only time (I'm not counting any B12 tournament games)

EDIT via @psychlones also 12-13.

​

 

[bawbie]

I would be surprised given the strength of the league for the committee to not select at least 7 big 12 teams. 7 wins in conference will probably be enough for one or two of the bottom four to get in.

I don't think so. OU and OSU, if they go 7-11 and then lose the first conf tourney game, will both be 16-16 (assuming OSU beats Ole Miss and OU loses to 'bama on Sat)

I don't think 16-16 gets you into the tourney, regardless of the conference.

 

[psychlones]

Have we ever swept West Virginia? I have a hard time seeing the boys beat Huggy twice no matter what his team looks like

Looks like twice, in the 2012-13 season and the 2014-15 season.

Winsipedia

 

[Malty Flannel]

Have we ever swept West Virginia? I have a hard time seeing the boys beat Huggy twice no matter what his team looks like

Us vs Huggy this year is about like TTU vs us last year. We play the same style essentially, but ISU has more grit, more bodies, and more scorers.

 

[cyclones500]

Looks like twice, in the 2012-13 season and the 2014-15 season.

Winsipedia

I stand corrected on my previous post ... I stopped at 13-14 (didn't think we had any sweeps in 12-13 without looking)

 

[Sigmapolis]

Swept in 2014-15 ... I think that's only time (I'm not counting any B12 tournament games)

EDIT via @psychlones also 12-13.

​

Looks like twice, in the 2012-13 season and the 2014-15 season.

Winsipedia

Funny how Iowa State and West Virginia had never once played until a conference game.

 

[ClonerJams]

And that we despite k-state sweeping them. It happened more than once during the Kansas run where they "won" the conference via tiebreak but actually we're swept head to head by the other team

I might be wrong, but I thought KU swept KSU that year.

 

[psychlones]

I might be wrong, but I thought KU swept KSU that year.

I'm assuming that was the 2012-13 season. If you click through and look at the standings and then look at the game log for one of those two teams, I believe you are right that KU swept KU that season.

Winsipedia

 

[cyclones500]

I might be wrong, but I thought KU swept KSU that year.

I think you're correct.

 

[8bitnes]

I might be wrong, but I thought KU swept KSU that year.

You are correct (2012-13 season)
I do know it has happened where Kansas was on the generous end of the same vs another school

 

[twincyties]

They have those two ranked teams, and then a bunch of teams at the Oklahoma State-ish level, and then a couple pretty awful teams at the bottom.

Oklahoma State would roll half the Big 10 teams.

 

[NENick]

I don't think so. OU and OSU, if they go 7-11 and then lose the first conf tourney game, will both be 16-16 (assuming OSU beats Ole Miss and OU loses to 'bama on Sat)

I don't think 16-16 gets you into the tourney, regardless of the conference.

I agree with this, but I think that if OSU gets Cisse back healthy, they're a capable team. But he didn't play at all last game.

Next 4, counting Ole Miss, are critical for any chance. 3 at home and at OU. Win all 4 and they're 6-5 in conference, 15-9 overall. 7 left after that to get 2 wins.

 

[CoachHines3]