***Official 2025 Weather Thread***

[NWICY]

You just can't help yourself can you?

A 26 foot rise of rushing water in 45 minutes. You cannot even comprehend that. There is no "posture" toward meteorology that would have changed a thing. Because there is no one or thing that could or would have forecast that type of rain in that small of area at that exact time. Anyone who says anything different and/or agrees has the sense of a bed post.

The only thing that would have saved anyone in all this is for the camp not to be there. That's it and that's all.

The weather forecast was relatively close. The lack of effort by the county supervisors in the past because "it costs money" lead to this tragedy. Having NOAA down 3(?)staff members in San Antonio did not help matters.
Decreasing the ability of NOAA in a time of rising extreme meteorological events is penny wise and pound foolish.

 

[cowgirl836]

You just can't help yourself can you?

A 26 foot rise of rushing water in 45 minutes. You cannot even comprehend that. There is no "posture" toward meteorology that would have changed a thing. Because there is no one or thing that could or would have forecast that type of rain in that small of area at that exact time. Anyone who says anything different and/or agrees has the sense of a bed post.

The only thing that would have saved anyone in all this is for the camp not to be there. That's it and that's all.

Local officials are currently blaming an inadequate forecast (which was pretty close as it turns out), so I suppose they have the sense of a bed post then.

 

[cowgirl836]

It sounds like neighboring counties do have the warning system - for the same river, actually. I know nothing about these - I wonder if you can't just use tornado sirens for the same purpose? Can they be programmed to emit a different sound for flooding?

 

[BoxsterCy]

Opened a thread in the politics/religion/global warming forum on the Guadalupe River disaster. Further discussion of this disaster can take place there.

https://cyclonefanatic.com/forum/threads/guadalupe-river-camp-mystic-flood-and-texas-flood-disaster.293069/

We granted some leeway for discussion in this general regional weather thread, such as the discussions on how your own phone is set up for emergency notifications but it's time to move the discussion to it's own thread.

 

[cowgirl836]

For my county the county dispatch does the cell phone alerts.

I think both of you are right but it's taking too long to find for sure while I pretend to listen to a meeting. Seems like FEMA can issue based on NWS language, but local officials have some governance over it as well? Probably varies by state. Like, push it to radio, tv, social media, start going out physically and issuing evacuation orders, etc. - the last part sticks out to me. You'd think something like a camp full of kids/RV park full of out of towners both right in the flood plain would be HIGH up the list of where public officials go to order evacuations first.

Integrated Public Alert & Warning System

The Integrated Public Alert & Warning System (IPAWS) is FEMA's national system for local alerting that provides authenticated emergency and life-saving information to the public through mobile phones using Wireless Emergency Alerts, to radio and television via the Emergency Alert System, and on...

www.fema.gov

 

[wxman1]

 

[HFCS]

You just can't help yourself can you?

A 26 foot rise of rushing water in 45 minutes. You cannot even comprehend that. There is no "posture" toward meteorology that would have changed a thing. Because there is no one or thing that could or would have forecast that type of rain in that small of area at that exact time. Anyone who says anything different and/or agrees has the sense of a bed post.

The only thing that would have saved anyone in all this is for the camp not to be there. That's it and that's all.

I climb and hike a lot of slot canyons and they flood like that or even higher a few times a year.

What you do is…religiously respect the forecast and don’t be there on those days, you can be there on the totally safe days. Wild concept huh?

 

[clonedude]

I climb and hike a lot of slot canyons and they flood like that or even higher a few times a year.

What you do is…religiously respect the forecast and don’t be there on those days, you can be there on the totally safe days. Wild concept huh?

Agree. I saw some forecasts well before this event that said 4-8” predicted. If I hear that as a parent, I don’t want my kid in that camp that night. 8” of rain in that hill country all funnels down to the streams VERY rapidly. That is a ton of rain.

 

[Clonehomer]

It sounds like neighboring counties do have the warning system - for the same river, actually. I know nothing about these - I wonder if you can't just use tornado sirens for the same purpose? Can they be programmed to emit a different sound for flooding?

As I think about this more, do you want to use the same signal for tornados and floods? Even if the tones or intermittence is different, do you want to risk confusing people? You want to go a different direction for each of those situations.

 

[cowgirl836]

As I think about this more, do you want to use the same signal for tornados and floods? Even if the tones or intermittence is different, do you want to risk confusing people? You want to go a different direction for each of those situations.

That's what some of the neighboring counties have though, they're just alarms that blare into the sky so it's going to be a sound regardless. You can't really see the tower when you're outside anyway. I would hope it would cause people to check a phone - one of the counties does a test every month it said, just like tornado so the locals would get used to which sound is which.

Here's one in Tulsa that does nuclear attack sounds (lol) as well -

 

[Rural]

I climb and hike a lot of slot canyons and they flood like that or even higher a few times a year.

What you do is…religiously respect the forecast and don’t be there on those days, you can be there on the totally safe days. Wild concept huh?

So, you are implying weather forecasting is designed to inform and safeguard the public?

 

[simply1]

Opened a thread in the politics/religion/global warming forum on the Guadalupe River disaster. Further discussion of this disaster can take place there.

https://cyclonefanatic.com/forum/threads/guadalupe-river-camp-mystic-flood-and-texas-flood-disaster.293069/

We granted some leeway for discussion in this general regional weather thread, such as the discussions on how your own phone is set up for emergency notifications but it's time to move the discussion to it's own thread.

The op is a map for all 50 states, what do you mean by regional?

 

[wxman1]

 

[BoxsterCy]

The bands are about the same for Minnesota, sort of peters out on risk levels before Twin Cities but guessing we get more rain. Was going to plant some shrubs and hostas yesterday but everything was still to wet and every shovel scoop was just clumping up. Heading out to try again (and to feed das mosquitoes).

More on my MPS radar than your DSM scope.

 

[FLYINGCYCLONE]

As I think about this more, do you want to use the same signal for tornados and floods? Even if the tones or intermittence is different, do you want to risk confusing people? You want to go a different direction for each of those situations.

One of the tv stations in Iowa use RED boxes for floods in their news on tv. The NWS use RED boxes for tornados warnings. That is not a good idea on the stations part.

 

[clone4life82]

That's what some of the neighboring counties have though, they're just alarms that blare into the sky so it's going to be a sound regardless. You can't really see the tower when you're outside anyway. I would hope it would cause people to check a phone - one of the counties does a test every month it said, just like tornado so the locals would get used to which sound is which.

Here's one in Tulsa that does nuclear attack sounds (lol) as well -

Growing up in Cedar Rapids, I remember the sirens having a drill for a different sound for a nuclear meltdown at the Dwayne Arnold nuke plant.

 

[Clonehomer]

Growing up in Cedar Rapids, I remember the sirens having a drill for a different sound for a nuclear meltdown at the Dwayne Arnold nuke plant.

Question was, do you try to run away and die slowly from radiation poisoning or go towards the plant to die quickly?

 

[clone4life82]

Question was, do you try to run away and die slowly from radiation poisoning or go towards the plant to die quickly?

If I recall correctly (mind you this is ~35 years ago) they were going to have us all hop on a bus and head SE…. It was a school drill.

 

[CycloneDaddy]

Question was, do you try to run away and die slowly from radiation poisoning or go towards the plant to die quickly?

military taught me to hide under my rain poncho in case of nuclear fallout.

 

[Hoggins]

Question was, do you try to run away and die slowly from radiation poisoning or go towards the plant to die quickly?

Drive towards it. Radiation poisoning is an awful way to die