2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

Sigmapolis

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My non-analytical take is we are 1-1 as far as luck goes in end of game situations. Won at Tech and lost at UA. I don't really consider Broome's put back luck, just a good play by him and bad rebounding by us.

Tech wasn't "luck," though. It was well-executed plays with the game on the line.

Draining a 60'+ shot at the buzzer... is luck.
 

NorthCyd

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Tech wasn't "luck," though. It was well-executed plays with the game on the line.

Draining a 60'+ shot at the buzzer... is luck.
Agree on the play, but the whole sequence of their excellent free throw shooters missing shots plus making the play was overall pretty unlikely for us to win in that situation. That said we were much more unlucky at UA then lucky at Tech.
 

ClubCy

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Tech wasn't "luck," though. It was well-executed plays with the game on the line.

Draining a 60'+ shot at the buzzer... is luck.
I consider a little lucky given the missed free throws and they had a wide open look 3 ft from the basket but I think “luck” balances out throughout a long season.
 

Sigmapolis

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I consider a little lucky given the missed free throws and they had a wide open look 3 ft from the basket but I think “luck” balances out throughout a long season.

Over a long season, then yes, the luck factor tends to balance out.

But so much of college basketball is how you do in a single-elimination tournament.

One or two possessions can be the difference from first-round upset and national champion.
 

madguy30

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KU is not your normal KU this year, especially without Adams. I'm confident in winning there.

That is one that ISU just needs to get the thing done and not piss around if they get a decent lead late.

Same goes with this Saturday.

And I don't mean an effort thing, just valuing possessions without trying to do too much, etc.
 
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Letterkenny

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Over a long season, then yes, the luck factor tends to balance out.

But so much of college basketball is how you do in a single-elimination tournament.

One or two possessions can be the difference from first-round upset and national champion.
Yep, and we got out buzzer beater against us out of the way. The basketball gods owe us one when it counts now.
 

jcf817

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If Auburn keeps winning and the other top SEC teams continue to trade losses, even with a loss at HOU and kU we have enough credibility with the national audience to maintain a 2 seed. (Assuming we win the others)
Does that mean it's better for us if Auburn just keeps winning, giving the other SEC teams more losses? (As long as we keep winning, of course.)
 

isufbcurt

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That is one that ISU just needs to get the thing done and not piss around if they get a decent lead late.

Same goes with this Saturday.

And I don't mean an effort thing, just valuing possessions without trying to do too much, etc.

Yeah I'm not worried about Saturday.

Last night and even with ASU, we would have a good offensive or defensive possession and then do something stupid on the other end and they would tie it up or we wouldn't extend the lead.

Often too it seems like we get going to fast sometimes and get ourselves in a bad spot then turn it over
 

Cloned4Life

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Yeah I'm not worried about Saturday.

Last night and even with ASU, we would have a good offensive or defensive possession and then do something stupid on the other end and they would tie it up or we wouldn't extend the lead.

Often too it seems like we get going to fast sometimes and get ourselves in a bad spot then turn it over
Yeah that’s been the most frustrating part of this squad. A lot of unforced TO’s lately. WVA and AZ both 20+% TO percentage, which is objectively really bad and our 2 worst of the season. And obviously both losses, meaning we couldn’t overcome our own mistakes.
 

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