Might as well give the trophy to Duke today, Bilas says they are the best!
2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
I mean they do have an argument for being the best team. Especially with Broome injured.Might as well give the trophy to Duke today, Bilas says they are the best!
Their metrics are really good.
Duke will crush it in a terrible ACC and get a one seed. Then I can honestly see them being one of the first one seeds to get bounced from the tournament. They are talented and one of the best…… but they are also very young. Book it
Lol! What is with all the Bilas butthurt lately. My goodness. I don't know if he actually even said this or not, but you can't really argue with someone who wants to say Duke is the best. They are loaded with freakish talent this year. The only reason to doubt them is their youth.Might as well give the trophy to Duke today, Bilas says they are the best!
I can imagine that occurring. Seems like a viable forecast.
Duke is a textbook upset for a 1 vs 8/9 matchup.
Exactly. If the metrics are right, they go on a tear. If the metrics are inflated or overdone, then they lose a few to higher quality opponents and drop.
Since Houston currently has 10 quad 1 games remaining and ISU only has 6, I think it's pretty unlikely ISU could be seeded higher if Houston finishes ahead in the Big 12 standings.
Kind of my thought as well. They played a tough non-con, but they are going to go 3+ months hardly being challenged. They played Auburn on Dec 4th, right now they might play only one ranked opponent (Illinois on a neutral court) before the NCAA tournament.
They are super talented, but not likely to be very battle tested. Especially the young guys that they rely on.
I know ESPN and its propensity to perform sexual favors for programs like Duke is annoying, but it hard to argue they aren't the most talented team in the country by a wide margin.
They're just not experienced. Programs like Auburn, Houston, and Iowa St. are full of old dudes. Dudes who don't have a lot of NBA potential but have played a metric ton of college ball.
We'll see which one wins out.
They're just not experienced. Programs like Auburn, Houston, and Iowa St. are full of old dudes. Dudes who don't have a lot of NBA potential but have played a metric ton of college ball.
We'll see which one wins out.
I think teams can get away with having younger guards. But man, what a difference a few years can make at the collegiate level for forwards. The transformation many of those kids go through while in college is incredible. Not to say there can't be successful underclassmen forwards; however, their talent must be through the roof to compete with the physicality of some of these 4th-5th year players
How about an update:
Iowa State NET 6 (2nd in Big 12 – UH 3)
Overall: 15-2 OOC: 10-1 Big 12: 5-1
NET SOS: 21, NET OOC SOS: 89
Q1 5-2
..Q1a 2-2 (1 N Auburn L-2, 14 A TTU W+1OT, 30 A WVU L-7, 9 H KU W+17)
..Q1b 3-0 (18 H Marquette W+11, 28 H BU+19, 54 A Iowa W+9)
Q2 4-0
..Q2a 2-0 (74 N Dayton W+5, 92 A CU W+10)
..Q2b 2-0 (70 H UU W+23, 92 N CU W+28)
Q3 0-0
Q4 6-0 (220 H UNO W+32, 233 H UMKC W+26, 305 H JSU+42, 321 H UI Indy+35, 342 H Morgan St+27, 364 H MVS+39)
ISU
Low Score: 57 High Score: 100 Ave Score: 83.8
OPP
Low Score: 44 High Score: 84 Ave Score: 65.2
ISU (conf only)
Low Score: 57 High Score: 85 Ave Score: 75.2
OPP (conf only)
Low Score: 55 High Score: 84 Ave Score: 64.7
Notes
Iowa State NET 6 (2nd in Big 12 – UH 3)
Overall: 15-2 OOC: 10-1 Big 12: 5-1
NET SOS: 21, NET OOC SOS: 89
Q1 5-2
..Q1a 2-2 (1 N Auburn L-2, 14 A TTU W+1OT, 30 A WVU L-7, 9 H KU W+17)
..Q1b 3-0 (18 H Marquette W+11, 28 H BU+19, 54 A Iowa W+9)
Q2 4-0
..Q2a 2-0 (74 N Dayton W+5, 92 A CU W+10)
..Q2b 2-0 (70 H UU W+23, 92 N CU W+28)
Q3 0-0
Q4 6-0 (220 H UNO W+32, 233 H UMKC W+26, 305 H JSU+42, 321 H UI Indy+35, 342 H Morgan St+27, 364 H MVS+39)
ISU
Low Score: 57 High Score: 100 Ave Score: 83.8
OPP
Low Score: 44 High Score: 84 Ave Score: 65.2
ISU (conf only)
Low Score: 57 High Score: 85 Ave Score: 75.2
OPP (conf only)
Low Score: 55 High Score: 84 Ave Score: 64.7
Notes
- ISU in top 6 of most results based (SOR, WAB) and predictive (BPI, POM, T-Rank) metrics except KPI(12).
- Big 12 doesn’t have a single team undefeated vs. Q1. ISU’s 5-2 mark is the best Q1 record.
- 4 A UH (Q1a)
- 9 A KU (Q1a)
- 15 A UA (Q1a)
- 15 H UA (Q1a)
- 64 A ASU (Q1b)
- 73 A UCF (Q1b)
- 117 H KSU (Q3)
- 83 H CU (Q3)
- 21 JAN - 73 H UCF (Q2b)
- 25 JAN - 64 A ASU (Q1b)
- 27 JAN - 15 A UA (Q1a)
- 01 FEB - 117 H KSU (Q3)
- 03 FEB - 9 A KU (Q1a)
- 08 FEB - 72 H TCU (Q2b)
- 11 FEB - 73 A UCF (Q1b)
- 15 FEB - 39 H UC (Q2a)
- 18 FEB - 92 H CU (Q3)
- 22 FEB - 3 A UH (Q1a)
- 25 FEB - 109 A OSU (Q2b)
- 01 MAR - 15 H UA (Q1a)
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College basketball is going to be increasingly full of old dudes in the front court who aren't particularly skilled or lack high-end athleticism... but will ******* fight you all night long on every possession.
Guys with skill or high-end athleticism are going to be long gone to the NBA by the time they would have been upperclassmen, which means these guys got nothin' else to do but stay in college until they get their Ph.D. in wizardry while collecting NIL dollars while beating the snot out of one another.
Bingo. Talen Horton-Tucker and Hunter Dickinson were born on the same day. Literally the same age down to the day and THT is in 6th year and 3rd contract.
As of today*
Agree on your statement as well, but that is a projection while I was talking about what has been proven today
Really curious how the pace affects the efficiency results of of the UCF game. 83 is a ton at home but the game was a lot of quick back and forth and we still won by 25. Probably a good not great efficiency result.
I wouldn't necessarily say that. We knocked UCF down to 76 so Houston still doesn't have a quad 1 win and we have 5. That's a lot of ground to make up even with 4 more opportunities than us. If you assume we lose at Houston and lose the conference by 1 game I don't think it's a guarantee they are seeded ahead of us.
Houston is an odd one. No one else in the NET Top 40 has zero Quad 1 wins.
And Auburn having 10 Q1 wins already is crazy. They could lose once or twice and still likely retain their #1 spot.
It moderates the impact of both the 108 and the 83.
ADJO v. UCF = 134.8 (excellent, second-best of the season after 99 on Colorado in Maui in 73)
ADJD v. UCF = 100.0 (meh, but games like Colorado 2x and Dayton were >100 points per 100)
Torvik gave the game a 97. UCF deserves some credit for going 11/24 (45.8%) from three.
