2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
Not necessarily against Colorado, but one extra loss on the season... somewhere in conference play.
#17 offense
#5 defense
...if you include the Torvik data from late last season and the preseason projections.
#3 offense
#98 defense
...if you use only the ACTUAL data from this season (with the small sample size).
Guess what?
HOIBALL IS BACK BABY!!!
That doesn’t make any sense. If it’s counting this as a “conference game” we went from 14-6 to 14-7. Meaning this is the game they think we lose. Went from 8 losses to a projected 9 losses….
I would imagine the computer also felt the Big 12 slate just became tougher with Kansas taking down Duke and Colorado taking down UConn. Utah also defeated MVSU (an obviously pitiful squad but a win is a win) though Houston losing a close/tough one to Alabama by five might mitigate that outcome. It wouldn't surprise me if our win expectation (a number between 0 and 1 for each game) for our matchups with Colorado and Kansas (both of which we play twice) ticked down enough to flip that number to round differently.
I'm going to go back to what I said before the season started...BRE, Trae and Hason took awhile to play cohesive...The same will be true with our bigs now. And they're better offensively than the former.
Jackson/Jefferson/Chatfield were really good in Maui.
They are a combined 37/46 from the FT line (80.4%) and shooting 48-74 on 2pt shots (65%)
The guards are also shooting very very well on 2pt shots - Gilbert (62%), Lipsey (61%) and Jones (57%) all shot around 45% last year. Will be very curious to see if they can keep that up.
I think teams are going to start trying to pack the lane against us. Will be key for others outside Milan and Jones to hit some shots. If Heise can be a threat from 3 and Tamin can get his shot right look out.
I think packing the lane would be a dumb idea against this team. Jones is shooting 40% this year and shot 36% last year. Milan is shooting 47% this year and 36% last year. Gilbert shot 35% last year and while off to a slow start this year he has only shot like 5 total. Lipsey is shooting poorly this year but he shot 39% last year. Heise shot 36% last year. We have some good shooters on the team and Nojus seems to be able to shoot the rock too. We essentially have two snipers in Milan and Curtis and then 3/4 guys that can shoot it well enough to keep the defense honest.
Oh I agree but if you extend too much Gilbert is going to carve you up and we have bigs that are effective at the rim. This team is so loaded lol
The computers liked that win over Colorado.
Auburn and Dayton continuing to show up helps, too.
Two more chances for Q1 wins OOC before the Big 12 slate starts...
For comparison, last year we were 0-1 in Q1 games out of conference (TAMU).
This year, we have a chance to go 3-1 in OOC Q1 games before the Big 12 schedule starts.
Marquette and Iowa are going to be big games for a serious push for a #1 seed.
Current final projections...
Torvik still likes Houston for the conference title, though...
I'll run everything through my SOS spreadsheet right before Big 12 play begins to see how balanced the schedules ended up with the OOC data included. Houston might just have an easy schedule.
Auburn and Dayton continuing to show up helps, too.
Two more chances for Q1 wins OOC before the Big 12 slate starts...
For comparison, last year we were 0-1 in Q1 games out of conference (TAMU).
This year, we have a chance to go 3-1 in OOC Q1 games before the Big 12 schedule starts.
Marquette and Iowa are going to be big games for a serious push for a #1 seed.
Current final projections...
Torvik still likes Houston for the conference title, though...
I'll run everything through my SOS spreadsheet right before Big 12 play begins to see how balanced the schedules ended up with the OOC data included. Houston might just have an easy schedule.
Still counting that Maui Colorado win as a conference game I see.
How does the conference title odds look now?
Per the analytics - we are favored in every game until we go to Lawrence on Feb 3rd
And favored in every game except @KU and @UH
And favored in every game except @KU and @UH
Torvik has us as +0.4 at TTU.
I imagine who is favored there will vary based on where you are looking, and might flip as we get closer.
Computers still like Houston even after the San Diego State loss?
lol at 82% chance to win in Boulder. I will always go into @sCUm expecting a loss, **** that place
I guess I don’t understand the love for Houston still. Are they a good team? Yes, are they as good as last year with Shead? No. I just don’t see them winning the conference at all.
Torvik loved them going into the season. I think they were the preseason #1.
Still #5 now despite the losses.
But if you filter out the preseason effects...
#5
Yes. Still #5. They have three losses but three "good losses" to #3, #9, and #39 (not so good then).
Iowa State is #11 without the preseason effects for comparison.
Oddly enough the Cyclones are #2 on offense (after Auburn) and #64 on defense so far.
Definitely has the feel of a team wanting to outscore people more than it has since TJ came back.
