2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

werdnamanhill

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The defensive stuff is correctable and this was the first time playing high level competition. That Dayton team had some really good players. I don't think the defense will be as good as last year but it will improve.
Ive got 2 main things I'd like to see improve with this team:

1. Defensive rotations. We are trapping/doubling too much and slow to rotate, leaving wide open 3s when they pass

2. PG. I think tamin needs to return to the primary PG role. KG can't dribble this much, and Tamin isn't getting the opportunity to use his great court vision as much without the ball in his hand.
 

CloniesForLife

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Ive got 2 main things I'd like to see improve with this team:

1. Defensive rotations. We are trapping/doubling too much and slow to rotate, leaving wide open 3s when they pass

2. PG. I think tamin needs to return to the primary PG role. KG can't dribble this much, and Tamin isn't getting the opportunity to use his great court vision as much without the ball in his hand.
Agree on defense. If also like us to stop the trapping quicker when it clearly isn't working but that's been a gripe of mine TJs entire tenure so not sure that's changing. There was a stretch late where we were scoring but Dayton was torching us on the trap so we couldn't extend our lead. But this staff is way smarter than me

For #2 I also agree but Tamin has been in foul trouble. Will payoff in the long run to have Gilbert be comfortable in this role as well. It is interesting that CW said (I don't know what podcast) that Tamin is more a natural 2. Not sure I agree with that. Honestly Tamin has just looked a little off for most of the year with his decisions and passing and just overall game. Hopefully he can get in a groove going forward. This team will be really hard to guard if our 3 main guards are clicking
 

CascadeClone

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The defensive stuff is correctable and this was the first time playing high level competition. That Dayton team had some really good players. I don't think the defense will be as good as last year but it will improve.

Agree. Would not be shocked if they end up a 6 seed in the tournament. Played smart too.

I mean, they played ISU and UNC right to the freaking wire and looked like they belong - not fluky at all.
 

Letterkenny

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Our team profile is currently on the path for better longevity in March Madness with the offensive efficiency improving; history shows Final Four teams and national champions have a top 10-20 offensive, something we have been missing the last couple years. It's obviously early but a good start.
The improved free throw shooting by Jackson and Jefferson alone probably bumps us up 20 spots from last year.
 
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MJ271

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It's too early in the season for many takeaways on the stats yet. However, Iowa State's defensive free throw rate is interesting. Because of the aggressive defense of the last few years, that's the one of the "four factors" where the defense has ranked poorly, finishing at 242, 340, and 313 in defensive free throw rate in the past few seasons. Being at 12 with the other defensive categories not suffering is very impressive.

For some comparison by competition level, their game-by-game defensive free throw rates this season are 21.6, 24.1, and 17.3. Last season the games before the Thanksgiving tournament were 30.4, 43.5, 51.2, and 14.3. With the exception of Grambling State last year, it's a stark difference from last season to this season.
Unfortunately this note from before the last two games hasn't held true in Maui. It's interesting, though, that it's been Lipsey and Gilbert getting into foul trouble. Jackson and Jefferson have been able to stay out of foul trouble, which is great. Hopefully tonight Lipsey can avoid picking up stupid fouls tonight and give Jones and Gilbert a breather after how much each of them had to play in the second half against Dayton.
 

Letterkenny

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The defensive stuff is correctable and this was the first time playing high level competition. That Dayton team had some really good players. I don't think the defense will be as good as last year but it will improve.
Our Achilles heel in the past has been teams that can really shoot the 3. They can take advantage of our trapping and aggressiveness. As long as you don't turn the ball over against us, you can get some open looks from 3. Auburn and Dayton fit that description. The fact that we beat one, and almost beat the other is a good sign to me, because our offense was able to keep up with both teams. That didn't happen last year against teams like BYU and Virginia Tech.
 

werdnamanhill

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Our Achilles heel in the past has been teams that can really shoot the 3. They can take advantage of our trapping and aggressiveness. As long as you don't turn the ball over against us, you can get some open looks from 3. Auburn and Dayton fit that description. The fact that we beat one, and almost beat the other is a good sign to me, because our offense was able to keep up with both teams. That didn't happen last year against teams like BYU and Virginia Tech.
How do Colorado, Marquette, Iowa do from the 3?
 

cyfan92

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Colorado is borderline elite at shooting 3's... That could be a problem this afternoon

However, Colorado has been loose with the basketball (TO prone) and they have fouled a lot this year..

I think this game is either really close (If CU makes 9+ 3's) or we win by a comfortably (8-12 points, not blowout margin)
 
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Cloned4Life

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The worst TJ defense by far, which is saying something.
Is it though?

I’m trying to be better about having “perspective”. I am confident that - if we go back through the threads from the past - many here thought the exact same thing the last 2 seasons at the start of the year, i.e. that our defense wouldn’t be as good as the year prior and our offense would definitely be much better than the year prior. I know we (collectively) did NOT think we had one of the best defenses in the country after 5 games last year, and it certainly wasn’t clear early on that we’d get there.

I’m really curious how things will play out. I do think we’re better offensively but I was told that the last 3 years and progress was slow - hell, our “much improved” offense last year went through some HORRIBLE stretches that saw our KenPom efficiency numbers absolutely tank in just a matter of weeks. So I’ll just be cautiously optimistic for now.

As for defense, I am concerned that we seem to be way less athletic and laterally quick. I dismissed this concerned pre-season; I’m not dismissing it now. But I’m hoping for some major improvements as the new bigs start to ‘get it’. And our legs look tired, overall. They really do. I think TJ’s offseasons are grueling but they’ll go through stretches here starting in January when they’ll be clicking on all cylinders. Likely followed by another late-season lull (as all TJ team’s have done, i.e. tired legs lead to shooting problems) and then hopefully a big energy boost/push post season.
 
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tim_redd

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Is it though?

I’m trying to be better about having “perspective”. I am confident that - if we go back through the threads from the past - many here thought the exact same thing the last 2 seasons at the start of the year, i.e. that our defense wouldn’t be as good as the year prior and our offense would definitely be much better than the year prior. I know we (collectively) did NOT think we had one of the best defenses in the country after 5 games last year, and it certainly wasn’t clear early on that we’d get there.

I’m really curious how things will play out. I do think we’re better offensively but I was told that the last 3 years and progress was slow - hell, our “much improved” offense last year went through some HORRIBLE stretches that saw our KenPom efficiency numbers absolutely tank in just a matter of weeks. So I’ll just be cautiously optimistic for now.

As for defense, I am concerned that we seem to be way less athletic and laterally quick. I dismissed this concerned pre-season; I’m not dismissing it now. But I’m hoping for some major improvements as the new bigs start to ‘get it’. And our legs look tired, overall. They really do. I think TJ’s offseasons are grueling but they’ll go through stretches here starting in January when they’ll be clicking on all cylinders. Likely followed by another late-season lull (as all TJ team’s have done, i.e. tired legs lead to shooting problems) and then hopefully a big energy boost/push post season.
It was a joke based solely on the analytic rankings up to now. I think our worst was like 7th. It'll take time for the new bigs to get up to speed and comfortable. Maybe we make a few tactical adjustments based on the strengths/weaknesses of the new personnel. I hope and expect the defense to improve steadily throughout the season.
 
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NorthCyd

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We always see new players need an adjustment period to get in the flow on the defensive end. The bigs look slow right now because they are still thinking about the right thing to do rather than just reacting. Fractions of a second of reaction time make a difference on whether or not they are in the right place defensively. I feel very confident we will see improvements on the defensive end. This staff has proven that year after year. What is harder to coach is offensive skill. Maybe this team doesn't quite reach the defensive ability of last years team, but I have no doubt the offensive improvements in the post that Jefferson and Jackson bring will be net positives for the team overall.