ISU Bowl Projection

[Cydewayz]

MAKING the NCAA tourney is the only thing that matters in Basketball. Just like MAKING the CFP is now the only thing that matters in football which is why the comparison. Previously in football, there were so many teams that didn't make the CFP, which made non CFP games seem more meaningful.

The new CFP format has drawn a clear line, anything not CFP is comparable to the NIT in basketball (which nobody cares about).

And I disagree, the 12 seed in this years CFP will have a much better chance (albeit small) at winning it all than a 16 seed in the NCAA tourney. But you are missing the point, its not about winning it all, its about MAKING it.

Great way of framing it vs basketball. I wish we could have like others have stated...some way to have the upper half of the good conferences play a playoff. you'd have to think the tv money would be HUGE...but of course, the conference would never figure out how to make that happen even though my guess is over time it'd be a HUGE money draw.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

43.75% of NFL teams make the playoffs. 32 of 1xx FBS (or whatever we call ourselves these days) seems completely reasonable to me.

Problem with that math is G5 shouldn’t count.

How does a regular season upset not equal the same thing in a playoff.

Are you saying those upsets only happen/will happen in the regular season and never in a playoff, regardless of the size of the playoff? To me some of the past historical upsets have been even more massive because they have been between NC calibur teams, against teams not even close to that.

In a playoff no matter what size it is, a team at the level of the top 5, losing to say a top 20 team will be far less of an upset than a top 5 team losing to a 3-5 G5 team. So saying the playoff doesnt need to be bigger because those lower teams will never win it, is very short sighted. History has proven there have been much greater upsets in the past than what would be in a 16 or even larger playoff. You still would be talking top level teams from the conferences, and on any given day really anyone can win. Not even close to how big some of the regular season upsets have been in the past.

Again these upsets wont be regular occasions, but they will still happen. There is a reason they play the games and not just picking a champion after the regular season, and this goes any system in the past, the BCS, the 2, 4, 12 or more team playoff, they still have to play the games, for that reason. No one expected TCU to beat Michigan a couple years ago, but they did.

An upset is an upset, and the playoff or not, they will always happen. Saying a #16 team in the playoff will never beat a #1 seed will be proven wrong sooner than later, and saying they should never expand that big because it will never happen is ignoring the history of CFB let alone sports in general. And really none of the conferences play against each other enough during the regular season to really know how strong one vs the other is, everyone can make educated guesses but in reality no one really knows, until the games are played.

Because in the regular season those G5 upsets almost always come early in the season and almost always are due to teams overlooking them. By the time you get to the playoff those teams are fully formed and won’t be overlooking anyone. In a 12 team playoff more often then not those G5 teams will be going up against the elite of cfb.

Like I said Indiana or BYU (or honestly Miami) could lose to a Boise. But for the majority of other teams in the playoff that’s gonna be a slaughter. Because the G5 will almost always not get a bye in the current format they are more then likely going to be playing one of those top teams

 

[cstrunk]

And Texas or Oregon could lose to an Iowa State. It should be about playing well enough in the regular season to be in the top tier at the end and then letting one team prove it all on the field.

 

[danvillecyclone]

Take the top 8 teams from the SEC and Big Ten and have one big Circle Jerk Championship each year.

That’s what they want.

So just quit the charades and do it.

Although the Sqwaks would desperately want to be in the circle.

 

[danvillecyclone]

Hell, make it 12 or 16 from the P2.

 

[2speedy1]

Problem with that math is G5 shouldn’t count.

Because in the regular season those G5 upsets almost always come early in the season and almost always are due to teams overlooking them. By the time you get to the playoff those teams are fully formed and won’t be overlooking anyone. In a 12 team playoff more often then not those G5 teams will be going up against the elite of cfb.

Like I said Indiana or BYU (or honestly Miami) could lose to a Boise. But for the majority of other teams in the playoff that’s gonna be a slaughter. Because the G5 will almost always not get a bye in the current format they are more then likely going to be playing one of those top teams

You talk like in any playoff system larger than what we have, then the majority of spots will suddenly be filled up with G5 teams. It wont. In almost all systems the G5 will get a very small share of the spots.

So with that are you saying there is no way the 3 place team in the B1G will ever beat the 1st place team in the SEC? Or the 3rd place team in the B12 will ever beat the 3rd place team in the B1G? Or maybe the 2nd place team in all of G5 will never beat the 3rd place team in the B1G?

Think about this a 16 team playoff. 4 from each of the SEC and B1G, 3 From each of the B12 and ACC, and 2 G5 or independent. Are you saying none of the games matter because the #1 seed will always win the NC? That is ridiculous. Are you saying the G5 will never win a game? That is also ridiculous.

Or a 32 team playoff, the top 8 from the B1G and SEC, 6 from the B12 and ACC, and 4 from the G5 or independent? I guarantee there will be upsets. I guarantee the #1 seed will not win the NC every year, they should, if the games didnt matter, but they wont.

Am I advocating for a 32 team playoff, not at this point but saying the #16+ team will never beat the #1 team in a playoff is no different than saying an unranked team will never beat a top 10 team ever, regular season or not. And we all know that happens frequently. In the end the games still matter, playoff or regular season.

 

[aeroclone]

Problem with that math is G5 shouldn’t count.

Because in the regular season those G5 upsets almost always come early in the season and almost always are due to teams overlooking them. By the time you get to the playoff those teams are fully formed and won’t be overlooking anyone. In a 12 team playoff more often then not those G5 teams will be going up against the elite of cfb.

Like I said Indiana or BYU (or honestly Miami) could lose to a Boise. But for the majority of other teams in the playoff that’s gonna be a slaughter. Because the G5 will almost always not get a bye in the current format they are more then likely going to be playing one of those top teams

So to be fair though, the G5 upsets happen early in the season because that is the only time top G5 teams play P4 teams. Other than those weird SEC games late in the season, nobody plays non con after September. And what evidence do we have that those results are due to the P4 school overlooking the G5?

You do have some G5 vs P4 bowl games, but with sit outs and transfers and coaching changes or whatever, really can't use those results to project what would happen in a playoff game.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

You talk like in any playoff system larger than what we have, then the majority of spots will suddenly be filled up with G5 teams. It wont. In almost all systems the G5 will get a very small share of the spots.

So with that are you saying there is no way the 3 place team in the B1G will ever beat the 1st place team in the SEC? Or the 3rd place team in the B12 will ever beat the 3rd place team in the B1G? Or maybe the 2nd place team in all of G5 will never beat the 3rd place team in the B1G?

Think about this a 16 team playoff. 4 from each of the SEC and B1G, 3 From each of the B12 and ACC, and 2 G5 or independent. Are you saying none of the games matter because the #1 seed will always win the NC? That is ridiculous. Are you saying the G5 will never win a game? That is also ridiculous.

Or a 32 team playoff, the top 8 from the B1G and SEC, 6 from the B12 and ACC, and 4 from the G5 or independent? I guarantee there will be upsets. I guarantee the #1 seed will not win the NC every year, they should, if the games didnt matter, but they wont.

Am I advocating for a 32 team playoff, not at this point but saying the #16+ team will never beat the #1 team in a playoff is no different than saying an unranked team will never beat a top 10 team ever, regular season or not. And we all know that happens frequently. In the end the games still matter, playoff or regular season.

My origional response to all of this was commenting on G5 teams in the playoff. I have never once compared the P4 teams and how they relate to each other so I have no idea where most of your post is coming from.

I said the G5 will never beat those truly elite teams in a playoff. I have examples of the teams they could beat in the playoff using this year as an example.

I don’t want the playoff to expand at all due to it making the regular season irrelevant. 12 is an ok number but I wanted and still want 8. If you go up to 16 or higher like some people are suggesting all you’re doing is making the regular season irrelevant for the blue bloods,

 

[FriendlySpartan]

So to be fair though, the G5 upsets happen early in the season because that is the only time top G5 teams play P4 teams. Other than those weird SEC games late in the season, nobody plays non con after September. And what evidence do we have that those results are due to the P4 school overlooking the G5?

You do have some G5 vs P4 bowl games, but with sit outs and transfers and coaching changes or whatever, really can't use those results to project what would happen in a playoff game.

And notice how those late season G5 games the SEC plays never produce an upset of the great teams? (I could be wrong here but I can’t remember any)

Totally agree that you can’t project based on bowl games for the reasons you mentioned.

 

[2speedy1]

My origional response to all of this was commenting on G5 teams in the playoff. I have never once compared the P4 teams and how they relate to each other so I have no idea where most of your post is coming from.

I said the G5 will never beat those truly elite teams in a playoff. I have examples of the teams they could beat in the playoff using this year as an example.

I don’t want the playoff to expand at all due to it making the regular season irrelevant. 12 is an ok number but I wanted and still want 8. If you go up to 16 or higher like some people are suggesting all you’re doing is making the regular season irrelevant for the blue bloods,

If you take the top 16 teams today, this is who would get in, none of them have more than 2 losses, all have taken 9-10 games to get themselves in that position. Even at 24 teams no one would have more than 3 losses, and would take all season to establish themselves in the top 24 teams of 130+ teams.

Notice there is only 1 G5 team listed there. Out of 16. Giving 1 G5 team a shot doesn't seem like a big deal to me. I mean I remember Boise St beating OU in the Fiesta bowl in recent history. OU was ranked #7 coming into that game(and the B12 Champ), so would have been in the upper half of teams in a 16 team playoff.

Edit: and that was before the mass sit out phenomenon started.

How does that make the regular season irrelevant?

 

[2speedy1]

And notice how those late season G5 games the SEC plays never produce an upset of the great teams? (I could be wrong here but I can’t remember any)

Totally agree that you can’t project based on bowl games for the reasons you mentioned.

Most of the late season SEC games are against FCS not G5. And usually they are the bottom feeders of the FCS. You dont see any of them playing the teams like ND st, SD st, Montana or anyone even close.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

If you take the top 16 teams today, this is who would get in, none of them have more than 2 losses, all have taken 9-10 games to get themselves in that position. Even at 24 teams no one would have more than 3 losses, and would take all season to establish themselves in the top 24 teams of 130+ teams.

Notice there is only 1 G5 team listed there. Out of 16. Giving 1 G5 team a shot doesn't seem like a big deal to me. I mean I remember Boise St beating OU in the Fiesta bowl in recent history. OU was ranked #7 coming into that game, so would have been in the upper half of teams in a 16 team playoff.

How does that make the regular season irrelevant?

View attachment 137882

It’s makes the regular season irrelevant for the blue bloods. Unless teams crater like this years Michigan team they will just automatically be in the playoffs. If you expand to 16 all OSU, Bama, Georgia, Oregon, games basically become irrelevant because they are very very rarely going to have more then 3 losses unless their is a massive implosion.

To make things simple, the more losses you allow a team to have and still get in the more it removes the stakes from the regular season games.

 

[2speedy1]

It’s makes the regular season irrelevant for the blue bloods. Unless teams crater like this years Michigan team they will just automatically be in the playoffs. If you expand to 16 all OSU, Bama, Georgia, Oregon, games basically become irrelevant because they are very very rarely going to have more then 3 losses unless their is a massive implosion.

To make things simple, the more losses you allow a team to have and still get in the more it removes the stakes from the regular season games.

So all the teams ranked in the top 16 starting this year... are still in the top 16? The season didnt tell us anything about... Michgan, FSU, BoiseSt, BYU etc etc etc etc?

Hell Georgia was all but picked to be the NC, and they are barely hanging on to the top 16 now.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

So all the teams ranked in the top 16 starting this year... are still in the top 16? The season didnt tell us anything about... Michgan, FSU, BoiseSt, BYU etc etc etc etc?

Wow you just are all over the place. Again. Never once said anything about preseason rankings did I?

I said that the blue bloods, unless there is an implosion which FSU and Michigan certainly qualify for, would be in without any worry in a 16 or higher team playoff because they can afford the losses and still get in. It removes a lot of the drama and makes the games have lower stakes

 

[2speedy1]

Wow you just are all over the place. Again. Never once said anything about preseason rankings did I?

I said that the blue bloods, unless there is an implosion which FSU and Michigan certainly qualify for, would be in without any worry in a 16 or higher team playoff because they can afford the losses and still get in. It removes a lot of the drama and makes the games have lower stakes

The point is the preseason rankings are what people think will happen. The blue bloods at the top like Mich and FSU, and even Georgia all have fallen. Why because the season matters. Even with 12 game playoff. That will not change with 16. Notice those teams are not in the top 16 or nearly not, while other teams have moved in. You are the one that said no G5 team would ever beat a top team, you said even BYUs has such a talent gap that even they cant compete, similar to how TCUs talent gap was to Michigans. You claimed that the regular season doesnt matter, because those blue bloods at the top will always get in, yet even Michigan would not get in a 24 team playoff.

Im all over the place? If you are going to say the regular season doesnt matter.... like you did, then you have to prove somehow the teams believed to be the top teams are still the top teams no matter what at the end of the season, showing their regular season games didnt matter. So how do you do that without looking at the preseason ranks to see where people "believed" teams were, blue blood or not.

Tell me this how many G5 teams would get in a 12, 16, 24, or even 32 team playoff right now? Tell me that never will any team G5 or not beat anyone in the top 8? Even though history has shown that to be wrong. Will a G5 ever win the championship? probably not, but they very could win a game or 2. Just like a 15 seed probably wont win the NCAA but they could and do win a game or 2 every year, even when their seeding puts them at a huge disadvantage.

Fact is, upsets happen. The season will always matter, and talking about Michigan and FSUs fall this year only proves that. Regardless of how big the playoff is. You will always have those situations, where a top Blue Blood or whatever you want to say, will fall and a team not picked to do much will rise. Otherwise just put Georgia, Bama, Ohio St, and Michigan a 4 team playoff every year, because no way could the top 4 best teams be anyone else. And no way Vandy or TCU or Boise St could ever beat one of them on a given day.

 

[mkadl]

Take the top 8 teams from the SEC and Big Ten and have one big Circle Jerk Championship each year.

That’s what they want.

So just quit the charades and do it.

Although the Sqwaks would desperately want to be in the circle.

I sincerely believe, that the Big Ten and the SEC can go it alone. It would make the rest of the field more like NCAA basketball, the whole country would love it and Cinderellas would be in a playoff every year. Just dont play against the SEC and BIG 10, without huge payouts. Pie in the sky? Maybe.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

The point is the preseason rankings are what people think will happen. The blue bloods at the top like Mich and FSU, and even Georgia all have fallen. Why because the season matters. Even with 12 game playoff. That will not change with 16. Notice those teams are not in the top 16 or nearly not, while other teams have moved in. You are the one that said no G5 team would ever beat a top team, you said even BYUs has such a talent gap that even they cant compete, similar to how TCUs talent gap was to Michigans. You claimed that the regular season doesnt matter, because those blue bloods at the top will always get in, yet even Michigan would not get in a 24 team playoff.

Im all over the place? If you are going to say the regular season doesnt matter.... like you did, then you have to prove somehow the teams believed to be the top teams are still the top teams no matter what at the end of the season, showing their regular season games didnt matter. So how do you do that without looking at the preseason ranks to see where people "believed" teams were, blue blood or not.

Tell me this how many G5 teams would get in a 12, 16, 24, or even 32 team playoff right now? Tell me that never will any team G5 or not beat anyone in the top 8? Even though history has shown that to be wrong. Will a G5 ever win the championship? probably not, but they very could win a game or 2. Just like a 15 seed probably wont win the NCAA but they could and do win a game or 2 every year, even when their seeding puts them at a huge disadvantage.

Fact is, upsets happen. The season will always matter, and talking about Michigan and FSUs fall this year only proves that. Regardless of how big the playoff is. You will always have those situations, where a top Blue Blood or whatever you want to say, will fall and a team not picked to do much will rise. Otherwise just put Georgia, Bama, Ohio St, and Michigan a 4 team playoff every year, because no way could the top 4 best teams be anyone else. And no way Vandy or TCU or Boise St could ever beat one of them on a given day.

Again. You’re in you’re own head here as I never once mentioned preseason rankings, I never said anything about BYU not being able to compete (I said them and Indiana were the only teams a G5 COULD potentially beat in the playoffs) I also never said anything about the number of G5 teams or that regular season results don’t matter. You are just on one.

What I did say is that the regular season is irrelevant for the blue bloods that don’t implode on a 16 or higher playoff and that expanding the playoff in such a way removes that tension.

Here’s an example that I think I’ll make clear since you clearly aren’t reading what I’m writing and just jumping to whatever topic you want to be angry about: OSU vs Indiana.

This weekends game against OSU and Indiana should be extremely important but unless Indiana gets boat raced it really isn’t. In the 4 team playoff neither of these teams could afford to lose this game. In a 12 team both are in pretty easily. That removes all the tension and stakes. The winner gets to play for a big ten championship which isn’t nothing but in a 4 or 8 team playoff this result would matter.

If you expand to 16 teams or more, a lot of these matchups just have greatly reduced stakes as teams can absorb the loses and still get in.

I hope you actually read this instead of making up random points I have never said

 

[2speedy1]

Again. You’re in you’re own head here as I never once mentioned preseason rankings, I never said anything about BYU not being able to compete (I said them and Indiana were the only teams a G5 COULD potentially beat in the playoffs) I also never said anything about the number of G5 teams or that regular season results don’t matter. You are just on one.

What I did say is that the regular season is irrelevant for the blue bloods that don’t implode on a 16 or higher playoff and that expanding the playoff in such a way removes that tension.

Here’s an example that I think I’ll make clear since you clearly aren’t reading what I’m writing and just jumping to whatever topic you want to be angry about: OSU vs Indiana.

This weekends game against OSU and Indiana should be extremely important but unless Indiana gets boat raced it really isn’t. In the 4 team playoff neither of these teams could afford to lose this game. In a 12 team both are in pretty easily. That removes all the tension and stakes. The winner gets to play for a big ten championship which isn’t nothing but in a 4 or 8 team playoff this result would matter.

If you expand to 16 teams or more, a lot of these matchups just have greatly reduced stakes as teams can absorb the loses and still get in.

I hope you actually read this instead of making up random points I have never said

You literally said having a bigger playoff means the Blue Bloods will always get in. And the regular season games dont matter.

You also said a G5 would never beat a top team, when Boise State literally beat OU in the Fiesta Bowl in recent history. Both being conference champions, and both having no sit outs. Both being what would be a similar to a game between Boise St and say Georgia this year.

I stated the fall of Michigan and FSU (blue bloods) both picked in the top 10 of the country to begin the year, now would not even make a 32 team playoff, let alone a 16.

You are right you never mentioned preseason rankings, but again how do you go from the start of the season to now, and claim that regular season games dont matter in a 12,16, 24, or even 32 team playoff without looking at what people perceived were the top teams at the beginning of the season to now?

You all but said that Blue bloods would always be in, in larger playoffs, regardless of what happens in the season, because the regular season wont matter, then in the next sentence, say well except for this year with teams like Michigan and FSU, contradicting your own point.

If anything you bringing up Michigan and FSU all but proves that the season matters regardless of how big you make the playoff.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

You literally said having a bigger playoff means the Blue Bloods will always get in. And the regular season games dont matter.

You also said a G5 would never beat a top team, when Boise State literally beat OU in the Fiesta Bowl in recent history. Both being conference champions, and both having no sit outs. Both being what would be a similar to a game between Boise St and say Georgia this year.

I stated the fall of Michigan and FSU (blue bloods) both picked in the top 10 of the country to begin the year, now would not even make a 32 team playoff, let alone a 16.

You are right you never mentioned preseason rankings, but again how do you go from the start of the season to now, and claim that regular season games dont matter in a 12,16, 24, or even 32 team playoff without looking at what people perceived were the top teams at the beginning of the season to now?

You all but said that Blue bloods would always be in, in larger playoffs, regardless of what happens in the season, because the regular season wont matter, then in the next sentence, say well except for this year with teams like Michigan and FSU, contradicting your own point.

If anything you bringing up Michigan and FSU all but proves that the season matters regardless of how big you make the playoff.

Every time I have said the blue bloods would get in I have prefaced that saying unless they implode. Go back and check my man.

Yep Boise won a fiesta bowl, have I mentioned bowls once? No im talking about playoffs. Again you just aren’t reading what I’m actually saying you’re just jumping to conclusions

 

[danvillecyclone]

I sincerely believe, that the Big Ten and the SEC can go it alone. It would make the rest of the field more like NCAA basketball, the whole country would love it and Cinderellas would be in a playoff every year. Just dont play against the SEC and BIG 10, without huge payouts. Pie in the sky? Maybe.

And a random Saturday in January it would be the P2 champ vs. the Nobody’s champ.

Fumble Rooskie’s and Statue of Liberty’s just like the picket fence in Hoosiers.

Just don’t get caught watching the paint dry!