ISU Bowl Projection

[Clonefan32]

How many teams with 3-4 losses are really 'fighting' for a better bowl game anyways over the last 10-20 years anyway? Blue bloods weren't. Teams like Iowa State? Yeah, probably if they haven't been to a good bowl in awhile. A team like Okie St, they gonna fight harder to go 8-4 instead of 7-5?
I'll say fans wanted it. Teams probably gave lip service but in the grand scheme, doesn't matter.

So maybe bowl tie ins are the bigger issue. I can distinctly remember in years past giving high importance to late season games as it would bump us up in the bowl rankings. It meant something to be going to the Alamo instead of the Insight.com. But with the tie ins it's just a matter of getting stuck at a bowl you've already been to and no one really cares about.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

That is dumb. A great G5 beating a P4 (or P2 if it makes you feel special) is not infinitesimal. Not even close. We see bigger upsets every year.

Haven’t seen it in the playoffs, that’s the point. No team is looking past their opponent in the playoff. The talent gap is too massive. I said P2 because ND doesn’t count and while I love the Big12 the talent discrepancy between a BYU and an OSU, Bama, etc is massive and that’s the caliber of team that’s competing in the playoff.

 

[MountainManHawk]

Haven’t seen it in the playoffs, that’s the point. No team is looking past their opponent in the playoff. The talent gap is too massive. I said P2 because ND doesn’t count and while I love the Big12 the talent discrepancy between a BYU and an OSU, Bama, etc is massive and that’s the caliber of team that’s competing in the playoff.

Upsets are a part of sports so I would stop short of saying it will never happen but I agree that a G5 winning 3 or 4 games in a row to actually become champion is super unlikely.

The new format ensures they will be a part of the CFP each year but makes it less likely they will ever win the whole thing.

Cincinnati made the 4-team playoff and it would have taken a lot of luck for sure to win it all that year but now it’s significantly more difficult because of the added games.

Although, depending on who wins the ACC this year it’s possible that Boise will get a first round bye as the 4 seed. There would still be an extra game though compared to the old 4 team playoff where you essentially started the playoffs in the semifinals.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Upsets are a part of sports so I would stop short of saying it will never happen but I agree that a G5 winning 3 or 4 games in a row to actually become champion is super unlikely.

The new format ensures they will be a part of the CFP each year but makes it less likely they will ever win the whole thing.

Cincinnati made the 4-team playoff and it would have taken a lot of luck for sure to win it all that year but now it’s significantly more difficult because of the added games.

Although, depending on who wins the ACC this year it’s possible that Boise will get a first round bye as the 4 seed. There would still be an extra game though compared to the old 4 team playoff where you essentially started the playoffs in the semifinals.

It’s possible that a first round bye is actually worse for Boise’s chances of winning a game as the teams that don’t deserve to be there (ND PSU) or don’t have top end talent (Indiana, BYU if they somehow didn’t get a bye) would be out already.

 

[aeroclone]

Except historically, both teams have played full rosters and put a ton of time and emotional investment into winning. There was a clear hierarchy of bowls that didn't have a new name every year. Winning the Alamo Bowl was a greater accomplishment than winning the Insight.com Bowl. Now they are truly exhibitions where the best players often aren't on the field. It's different.

Yeah, but the players opting out wasn't really a function of the creation of the playoff, or an expanded playoff, or an increase in number of bowls. It was a separate phenomenon that just happened at the same time as those other changes.

The case for an NFL prospect to sit out the 2001 Independence bowl was no different then versus now. For whatever reason it just wasn't done.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Yeah, but the players opting out wasn't really a function of the creation of the playoff, or an expanded playoff, or an increase in number of bowls. It was a separate phenomenon that just happened at the same time as those other changes.

The case for an NFL prospect to sit out the 2001 Independence bowl was no different then versus now. For whatever reason it just wasn't done.

Yeah I think it wasn’t a thing because NFL teams could ding the player for it. The NFL is much smarter and more analytical then that now so once it wasn’t going to be a negitive everyone that was a sure fire NFL player sits out.

That one ole miss QB Corral didn’t and got injured, fell to the third round and got cut the very first season. No one going in the top couple rounds should ever play a non playoff game

 

[VeloClone]

Our defense let KU score 45 points. I am not sure Colorado would be super worried.

While not completely healthy, I'm confident that our defense would be at least a bit more healthy by the time bowl season rolls around.

Not playing a squad of walk on freshmen at LB would be a special treat...

 

[VeloClone]

You cannot escape destiny

 

[CascadeClone]

Said it in other threads: I’ll watch from my couch and cheer, but I’m not packing the kids and family up to travel to a non CFP bowl game anymore.

Same. Especially when you figure most of the bowls are within 3-4 days of Xmas. You are not just spending money on a vaca, you are also forfeiting family time at Xmas.

 

[2speedy1]

Basketball isn’t football. In a post season matchup where the teams care (the playoff) that just isn’t happening. In basketball teams can get hot while another team goes cold and the talent just balances out. Football there are way too many players on the field with astronomical differences in size ability and talent. It’s impossible to compare

This is true to a point, but every week we see massive upsets. I am sure Michigan didnt think App St had a chance, I am sure OkSt didnt think Iowa State had a chance to take them out of the NC discussion, etc.

And in a playoff you are not going to talk about that level of upset because even the lower team would be closer in power to the favorite than what those are.

Those upsets would be more rare but they would still happen. And then you have instances like where Iowa State is now, lot of injuries, that could cost them a game or two mid season, where if all those injured players make it back for the end of the season/playoff could see a team that looks way weaker in record beating a supposed superior team, and making a run in the playoffs.

That being said I have always said I thought an 8 team playoff was probably the sweet spot, but now I lean a bit towards a 16 team playoff, with better balance between all conferences involved and no special treatment or at least no easier paths for anyone, outside the seeding.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

Haven’t seen it in the playoffs, that’s the point. No team is looking past their opponent in the playoff. The talent gap is too massive. I said P2 because ND doesn’t count and while I love the Big12 the talent discrepancy between a BYU and an OSU, Bama, etc is massive and that’s the caliber of team that’s competing in the playoff.

TCU just beat Michigan 2 years ago … in the playoffs

 

[werdnamanhill]

 

[SolterraCyclone]

This is true to a point, but every week we see massive upsets. I am sure Michigan didnt think App St had a chance, I am sure OkSt didnt think Iowa State had a chance to take them out of the NC discussion, etc.

And in a playoff you are not going to talk about that level of upset because even the lower team would be closer in power to the favorite than what those are.

Those upsets would be more rare but they would still happen. And then you have instances like where Iowa State is now, lot of injuries, that could cost them a game or two mid season, where if all those injured players make it back for the end of the season/playoff could see a team that looks way weaker in record beating a supposed superior team, and making a run in the playoffs.

That being said I have always said I thought an 8 team playoff was probably the sweet spot, but now I lean a bit towards a 16 team playoff, with better balance between all conferences involved and no special treatment or at least no easier paths for anyone, outside the seeding.

I started out this way, but I’ve completely flipped. I think the playoff needs to be bigger.

It needs to be large enough, that making the CFP is a realistic, attainable goal for most CFB teams (to keep a majority of CFB invested in football through October), while maintaining the perception that it is a good achievement. Like the basketball tourney does. I’d be good with having a 32-team playoffs.

The goal of CFP shouldn’t be to just invite teams who can win the championship. If that was the case, they could have just kept it at 4. The goal should be to allow teams to earn their way in and give them an opportunity to win the title (as unlikely as it may be). This is how all other postseasons work.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

TCU just beat Michigan 2 years ago … in the playoffs

Is TCU a G5 team?

 

[FriendlySpartan]

This is true to a point, but every week we see massive upsets. I am sure Michigan didnt think App St had a chance, I am sure OkSt didnt think Iowa State had a chance to take them out of the NC discussion, etc.

And in a playoff you are not going to talk about that level of upset because even the lower team would be closer in power to the favorite than what those are.

Those upsets would be more rare but they would still happen. And then you have instances like where Iowa State is now, lot of injuries, that could cost them a game or two mid season, where if all those injured players make it back for the end of the season/playoff could see a team that looks way weaker in record beating a supposed superior team, and making a run in the playoffs.

That being said I have always said I thought an 8 team playoff was probably the sweet spot, but now I lean a bit towards a 16 team playoff, with better balance between all conferences involved and no special treatment or at least no easier paths for anyone, outside the seeding.

Yeah the app state and OKST games are regular season, not playoffs. That was kinda my point.

Totally agree with an 8 team, 16 is way to many and invalidates the need to play the regular season

 

[SolterraCyclone]

Is TCU a G5 team?

Read what you wrote. You said the talent gap between BYU and Bama isn’t comparable. Isn’t that the same scenario as TCU vs Michigan?

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Read what you quoted. You said the talent gap between BYU and Bama isn’t comparable. Isn’t that the same scenario as TCU vs Michigan?

That’s not what I’m talking about. I said a G5 team can’t beat those high tier teams. Not comparing TCU to Michigan in a playoff but a G5 team against Michigan (in this example) in a playoff

Case in point, Michigans classes are usually in the 10-20 range. TCU is usually in the 20-40 range. That’s a gap but not a massive one especially with transfers.

Boise has a recruiting class that is almost always in the 70’s and is not getting good transfers. They just aren’t playing the same sport and would get abused on the lines in a playoff game against that elite talent.

Yeah teams like that can surprise people early in the season when they are being overlooked, upsets happen. But that will not happen in the playoffs against elite teams.

It can happen like I said to a BYU whose classes are in the 60’s and 70’s most years, same for Indiana. It’s why even on Indiana’s best year in school history they still struggled to beat an extremely mediocre/bad Michigan team

 

[cstrunk]

43.75% of NFL teams make the playoffs. 32 of 1xx FBS (or whatever we call ourselves these days) seems completely reasonable to me.

 

[2speedy1]

Yeah the app state and OKST games are regular season, not playoffs. That was kinda my point.

Totally agree with an 8 team, 16 is way to many and invalidates the need to play the regular season

How does a regular season upset not equal the same thing in a playoff.

Are you saying those upsets only happen/will happen in the regular season and never in a playoff, regardless of the size of the playoff? To me some of the past historical upsets have been even more massive because they have been between NC calibur teams, against teams not even close to that.

In a playoff no matter what size it is, a team at the level of the top 5, losing to say a top 20 team will be far less of an upset than a top 5 team losing to a 3-5 G5 team. So saying the playoff doesnt need to be bigger because those lower teams will never win it, is very short sighted. History has proven there have been much greater upsets in the past than what would be in a 16 or even larger playoff. You still would be talking top level teams from the conferences, and on any given day really anyone can win. Not even close to how big some of the regular season upsets have been in the past.

Again these upsets wont be regular occasions, but they will still happen. There is a reason they play the games and not just picking a champion after the regular season, and this goes any system in the past, the BCS, the 2, 4, 12 or more team playoff, they still have to play the games, for that reason. No one expected TCU to beat Michigan a couple years ago, but they did.

An upset is an upset, and the playoff or not, they will always happen. Saying a #16 team in the playoff will never beat a #1 seed will be proven wrong sooner than later, and saying they should never expand that big because it will never happen is ignoring the history of CFB let alone sports in general. And really none of the conferences play against each other enough during the regular season to really know how strong one vs the other is, everyone can make educated guesses but in reality no one really knows, until the games are played.

 

[Cydewayz]

I was a big defender of bowl games and the value they provide to teams/fans as a reward for a successful season until this most recent Liberty Bowl. You'll never be able to convince me the coaching staff and players fully cared about that game, and if they aren't bought in why should I be? Frankly, it kind of broke my heart.

It is wild....remember when it was a big deal to talk about the "prize packs" each person got....like $500 to shop at a gift suite or a Playstation 5? And some new team gear.....now I'm guessing for bigger schools players may be like "meh"
I'd imagine the bowl landscape will continue to change/evaporate. If the teams are gutted, name programs will be done after the first round of the playoffs (that normally would be a good team to play in a decent bowl), and all the other changes to conference money, I can't see them being more than a weak consolation prize for many schools.