***Official 2024 Chicago Cubs Thread***
- Thread starter CycloneErik
- Start date
The Cubs should definitely give Busch a look at 2B in spring training.
If Busch can be position flexible, that gives the Cubs ability to sign a high slug FA at 1B, 3B or even OF. Paredes had played 1B & 3B. And as Happ and Suzuki age, might be good to see if they can play some 1B.
I expect the Cubs to bring in a FA utility infielder with a proven bat. Waive Mastobuoni (2B/3B) and Wisdom (1B, 3B & LF) then go with a FA utility infielder plus Vazquez or Shaw or Triantos as the second utility infielder.
I doubt they add anything big as a bat after Bellinger carving 27.5 off the budget. I hope we add a third top of the rotation type then bolster the pen.
Some people are overthinking Shaw. He SHOULD be on the Opening Day roster and he SHOULD be starting the majority of games. I'll do you one better, you can do it while adding a serious impact bat. It really just takes one move that'll be sad but oh well - trading Hoerner and work on Busch at 2B.
You then...
1) Guarantee Shaw 2B the 20% of games we face LHP starters.
2) Guarantee Shaw 2B the 20% Bellinger is in the OF platooning moving Busch to 1B.
3) Guarantee Shaw 3B 10% of games Paredes gets a break
4) Guarantee Shaw SS the 5% of games Swanson gets a break
There's 55% right there with the assumption no one ever hits the IL. Once those stints hit, his PT will only improve.
You then...
1) Guarantee Shaw 2B the 20% of games we face LHP starters.
2) Guarantee Shaw 2B the 20% Bellinger is in the OF platooning moving Busch to 1B.
3) Guarantee Shaw 3B 10% of games Paredes gets a break
4) Guarantee Shaw SS the 5% of games Swanson gets a break
There's 55% right there with the assumption no one ever hits the IL. Once those stints hit, his PT will only improve.
44 guys remain on the 40. Have to have it down to 40 in 24 hours.
My guess is we haven't outrighted anyone because we're still hoping to trade a couple of guys similar to how we ended up getting Miles Mastrobouni, as the Rays were needing to clear space.
Guys with no options so would make sense to trade if someone is willing to give up another human with a pulse: Keegan Thompson, Alexander Canario
Guys with options that would make sense to deal: Nick Madrigal, Miles Mastrobouni, Matt Mervis, Patrick Wisdom
Guys who you can just cut anyway and then deal the others by the Nov. 19 Rule 5 Deadline when you need to add a few more to the 40 man: Adbert Alzolay, Colten Brewer, Jimmy Herget, Trey Wingenter, Brennan Davis
My guess - Alzolay, Brewer, Herget, Wingenter will be cut and not Cubs tomorrow, but just about everyone else listed will not be Cubs by November 19.
My guess is we haven't outrighted anyone because we're still hoping to trade a couple of guys similar to how we ended up getting Miles Mastrobouni, as the Rays were needing to clear space.
Guys with no options so would make sense to trade if someone is willing to give up another human with a pulse: Keegan Thompson, Alexander Canario
Guys with options that would make sense to deal: Nick Madrigal, Miles Mastrobouni, Matt Mervis, Patrick Wisdom
Guys who you can just cut anyway and then deal the others by the Nov. 19 Rule 5 Deadline when you need to add a few more to the 40 man: Adbert Alzolay, Colten Brewer, Jimmy Herget, Trey Wingenter, Brennan Davis
My guess - Alzolay, Brewer, Herget, Wingenter will be cut and not Cubs tomorrow, but just about everyone else listed will not be Cubs by November 19.
Spotrac is updated with the Cubs until Tier I luxury tax with the projections of arbitration-eligible players. They're looking at $49 MM in space. Cutting Wisdom, Bethancourt, Alzolay, Almonte, Madrigal, Wingenter, Thompson, Herget, and Brewer saves $15.5 MM putting you up to about $65 MM to spend.
I dunno if they would use him in a role like this. Wouldn't it be better for his development to play him primarily at 1 position and not 3? Feels like we already played that scenario out with Morel and look how that turned out. Not saying Shaw is as bad as Morel defensively but if he's not at least average to above average at all those spots it probably would be in the best interest to pick his best position and develop him there and make any necessary moves or trades with guys already on the MLB roster than to throw a rookie into a super utility role like that where he's playing a different position each time out. I looked up his games played per position last season between AA and AAA:
3B: 64
2B: 24
SS: 24
DH: 9
If you break that down by just what he played in Iowa:
3B: 24
2B: 5
SS: 5
DH: 3
Based on that usage you would think he's being developed as a 3B, a lot probably depends on what they do in the offseason and what they have for plans with Paredes and Nico as to where they see his path to the big leagues is my guess. I haven't seen him play in person yet to see how his defense is. Jed is going to need to get creative with the roster and make some trades if we are ever going to have opportunities for our top prospects to play in Chicago, if they truly are better or have a higher ceiling than what currently have Jed needs to bite the bullet and trade whoever is blocking that guy in Chicago and commit to the rebuild he started 3 years ago whe he traded the WS core off.
No one is giving you anything for Madrigal, Mastrobouni, or Wisdom, maybe Mervis but it won't be much. I think it's a forgone conclusion that Madrigal and Wisdom will eventually be non-tendered and cut. Thompson and Canario could probably find a trade partner for, I think Thompson could still be non-tendered if he is not dealt as he is out of options. The others you have listed I think all will get cut eventually. There are plenty of cut candidates to clear the spots just a matter of what timeline they plan to make those moves.
"if the Cubs want to be more like the Guardians, Rays, and Brewers on the data/modeling/development side, OK, great, fine. But the goal better not to be “as good as” those clubs at similar levels of spending. It should be trying to replicate their areas of success while also having the benefit of being able to spend more on big league payroll than those clubs ever even consider. Some teams can have it both ways, and the Chicago freaking Cubs better be aiming to be one of them."
I view Shaw and Morel as different situations.
My prediction is Cam Smith is the future at 3B - Shaw is going to be a Zobrist.
I believe Shaw spent most of his time at 3B in development because it’s already known he can handle SS and 2B. And 3B was a position of question most of last year. I just think they want him to be able to play all over the infield.
Ben Zobrist was an absolute unicorn. How many more prospects are the Cubs going to ruin chasing something that doesn't exist.
Chris Morel's entire career is different if they'd have just stuck him at 3rd base 5 years ago and let him grow and learn.
Chris Morel's entire career is different if they'd have just stuck him at 3rd base 5 years ago and let him grow and learn.
Agree, not many players out there that can play all over the field like Zobrist could and do it as well as he did. Morel's development was mishandled in so many ways too. He basically skipped AAA at first then they tried to turn him into Zobrist when he was hitting well straight from AA but didn't have an open spot for him defensively. He wasn't great at any particular position so they should have eventually sent him back to AAA and committed to a primary position to finish his development before counting on him to be a full time starter. This is my fear with some of the current prospects we have that are so close that there is no clear path for some of them to take over a position full time and get the meaningful playing time to make the adjustments both at the plate and in the field. They'll be relegated to a bench/platoon role or they try to move them around the field too without a set role.
Guys who can play multiple positions and play just about every day are not unicorns. Just look at the Dodgers roster.
Morel is just dog **** defensively - the Rays moved him to 2B and now are looking to move him to LF. Has little to do with how the Cubs developed him.
They're doing it again with Triantos and Shaw. Just let them settle in somewhere.
I'm with ya. I think Jed needs to get creative this offseason either way. Now he's starting with higher floor.
I don't necessarily expect him to do that, but I don't think it's because Cody is or isn't around.
I'm not sold that Paredes is that much better defensively at 3B than Morel was either. He committed 15 errors ins 128 game at 3B, 9 of those were in 50 games with the Cubs. In 2023 he had 11 errors in 116 games at 3B. Morel had 9 errors in 74 games at 3B last year and hasn't played enough there prior to really make note of. Offensively they are pretty similar too so we essentially traded Morel for another version of himself so far.
Errors are the more noticeable stat but, by virtually any advanced defensive metric, Morel is a significantly negative value defender at 3B. Paredes is no gold glover of course, but he's more like league average which is a big step up. If Morel was even league average at ANY position he would have found a every day starting job. Offensively they are similar profiles sure, but Paredes (even with the slump after coming over) has been a notch better.
In short, these guys are the same age, both have ~3 full seasons under their belt. Paredes is the better player but more expensive. Morel has that potential that is tantalizing, but can't seem to put it together yet. I think Paredes is going to be quit good next season and he's being a bit overlooked due to his performance after the trade.
WAR is not a perfect stat but the last three years tells that story...
Paredes
2022 - 111 games, 2.5 WAR
2023 - 143 games, 4.2 WAR
2024 - 153 games, 2.7 WAR (0.4 WAR w/ Cubs - 52 games)
Morel
2022 - 113 games, 1.1 WAR
2023 - 107 games, 1.2 WAR
2024 - 152 games, -0.6 WAR (0.2 WAR w/ Cubs - 103 games)
Only one that really shocks me is Paredes. Liked him with the Brewers and in his limited time with us. His numbers say he’s pretty good, I wonder if there are outside factors contributing
