We don’t want that eye test unless we could wear tar heel blue while playing this well.
We want raw data.
Bracketology 2024
- Thread starter CoachHines3
- Start date
We don’t want that eye test unless we could wear tar heel blue while playing this well.
We want raw data.
I think its generally 4 metrics averaged out to 2 scores. KPI and SOR are the performance metrics, KP (or POM) and BPI are the predictive. Last updates I saw tonight had our avg of performace at 5.5 and UNC at 4.5, and predictive at 6 with UNC at 9. the predictive shift is pretty sizeable, we both averaged 8 before todays games.
There is a ton of notoriety with being a 1 seed. Statistically speaking, your path to an elite 8 as a 1 seed should be far easier than a 2 seed. Elite 8 on I agree 1/2 seed there is a minimal difference. Iowa State rattles off a back-to-back seasons as a 1 seed though you really start to build a brand and that in turn can really impact your recruiting.I don't even care that much if we get a 1 or a 2 seed. I don't think our path will be that much easier either way. I just love the fact that there is some intrigue for us going into the selection show.
Pollard publicly saying the committee is struggling with the field this year. Not looking good for Indiana State.
What percentage of sports fans do you think could name all the 1 seeds from last years tournament without looking it up?
This is true, the thing is the one time we DEFINITELY earned a 1 seed but didn’t get it, we ran into the only actual good 1 seed that year and potentially cost us a national title playing them in a road game with questionable officiating.
In the vast majority of years it really wouldn’t matter as much as it did that one time.
I won’t care if we get a 2 seed at all and still expect a 2 seed. That 4th one seed has been a coin flip all season and it just happens with this dominant tournament we threw our name in the hat at the last minute.
Interesting to see how NCAA handles basketball versus football.
Play a strong non-conference in basketball but lose several of those games and you get rewarded for it. UNC will probably get the one seed and I guarantee the non con SOS will be the go-to talking point. But play a shotty conference, have fewer good wins in the last 90 days, have worse losses in that same time period, lose conference championship to a team that wasn’t going to make tourney otherwise and they’re like “but they scheduled strong teams 4 months ago”.
Let’s also keep in mind that these blue blood teams get invited to more Thanksgiving tournaments (we had no way of knowing what our field in Orlando was going to look like) and other showcases. They will schedule each other because there is little risk to their brand if, for example, Duke loses to Michigan State at some random showcase in Brooklyn. If TAM doesn’t underachieve, Iowa doesn’t suck, and we pull Marquette in the Big East challenge it’s a completely different narrative.
Juxtapose that will what happened in football this year. FSU got hosed due in part to the fact that people didn’t think that they could win the first round game with their starting QB out. They weren’t even talking resume. They were talking about how they looked recently and going so far as to speculate how they would do in the future.
College athletics is such a mess in so many ways but maybe that’s part of the charm.
Play a strong non-conference in basketball but lose several of those games and you get rewarded for it. UNC will probably get the one seed and I guarantee the non con SOS will be the go-to talking point. But play a shotty conference, have fewer good wins in the last 90 days, have worse losses in that same time period, lose conference championship to a team that wasn’t going to make tourney otherwise and they’re like “but they scheduled strong teams 4 months ago”.
Let’s also keep in mind that these blue blood teams get invited to more Thanksgiving tournaments (we had no way of knowing what our field in Orlando was going to look like) and other showcases. They will schedule each other because there is little risk to their brand if, for example, Duke loses to Michigan State at some random showcase in Brooklyn. If TAM doesn’t underachieve, Iowa doesn’t suck, and we pull Marquette in the Big East challenge it’s a completely different narrative.
Juxtapose that will what happened in football this year. FSU got hosed due in part to the fact that people didn’t think that they could win the first round game with their starting QB out. They weren’t even talking resume. They were talking about how they looked recently and going so far as to speculate how they would do in the future.
College athletics is such a mess in so many ways but maybe that’s part of the charm.
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i look at it more as a program resume builder. I can’t name the 1 seeds off the top of my head but I bet I could name 10 programs and they would contain the 1 seeds.
Okay - when ******* PALM finally taps out and gives us our kudos, this thing might actually happen.
Cyclonepride
Thought Police
I hope they're in. They'd beat a lot of the power conference teams that will squeak in by the skin of their teeth.
Agreed, but we've raised the profile of the program a lot this season regardless. What happened tonight means as much as a 1 seed IMO, and making a run means more regardless of seed. But yeah, all things being equal a 1 seed is better for building a profile.
What REALLY sucks is OU and Texas are still probably barely in avoiding PIG.
Would have loved it if some of these bid stealers could have knocked them out or even into the PIG.
I really don’t think either of them are playing any better than KSU and Cincy right now, they just got off to better starts before the Big 12 chewed them both up.
With Arizona coming in it’s not like we need them to make the conference look good, everybody knows it is and will be the toughest league.
I’d really want to get rid of OUT for Indiana State.
I agree, but the MVC is often a one bid league. I think those guys pretty much know they need to win their tournament to get in.
You are missing the point. Most sports fans couldnt name the four teams in the Final Four last year either. A one seed carries a lot of cache. So does making a Final Four. You start stacking 1 seeds or Final Fours and you really start to build a brand.
I think you can say the same thing about a lot of accomplishments. I just don't think it's going to have a major impact on the trajectory of the program whether we get a 1 or a 2 seed tomorrow. If you disagree thats fine. Agree to disagree.
I wonder if some people don’t know what the MVC looks like today even compared to 5 years ago.
Can’t predict about the trajectory but it’s certainly a huge wall to break down in CBB. Would be interested to see what the last 10 years of 1 seeds looks like. It can’t be a large group.
This is from a year ago so doesn't include the last tournament's data, but its pretty significant differences all the way through.
| SEED | 2ND ROUND | SWEET 16 | ELITE 8 | FINAL FOUR | CHAMPIONSHIP | WIN CHAMPIONSHIP | TRUE ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 99.3% | 85.1% | 68.2% | 40.5% | 25.0% | 16.2% | 64.9% |
| 2 | 93.2% | 62.8% | 45.3% | 21.6% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 13.5% |
Now, of course part of it is the difference in 1 seeds simply being better teams. But there's advantages all the way through. Not just in playing 8\9 vs 7\10 or playing 4 vs 3, but because with the lower odds on the other side it also means more likelihood you end up playing lower seeds later on as upsets happen as a 2 is more likely to drop before you get to the elite 8 than the 1 is if you're a 2. (and likewise the 4 vs the 3)
Since there’s no way they’d put us near Houston for another rematch, I just want to avoid UConn in the east.
Really any other situation is going to be fine given we’ve locked in 6th/7th overall as the lowest we could be slotted.
