2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

[interrobang]

Torvik chances of these happening...

1.) 14%

2.) 15%

3a.) 77%

3b.) 72%

Multiplying those together = 1.16424%

It could happen. Approximately 1% might be a little low. But I wouldn't call it likely.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Eh, if both teams keep performing it's looking pretty likely that debate will be settled in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament so it's moot anyways.

That bracket has Iowa State and Texas Tech in the same #3/#6 pod.

That's counter to bracket regulations. You can't have rematches until the Sweet Sixteen.

 

[Sigmapolis]

View attachment 124915

 

[interrobang]

That bracket has Iowa State and Texas Tech in the same #3/#6 pod.

That's counter to bracket regulations. You can't have rematches until the Sweet Sixteen.

I get it is hard to keep up with all the games/changes on a almost daily basis. But still odd to me that ESPN/CBS can't be a bit better on their brackets/match-ups.

 

[NorthCyd]

That bracket has Iowa State and Texas Tech in the same #3/#6 pod.

That's counter to bracket regulations. You can't have rematches until the Sweet Sixteen.

I was simply talking about the ISU/Baylor seeding debate. I don't pay attention to the brackets they put together. That is meaningless clickbait.

 

[bawbie]

We struggle against zone defense looks and against teams that carry a lot of height in the post. Coaches need to adjust game plans for those things, our players are following thru with what they have been taught

one thing I've noticed is that we tend to pull up for more floaters and fade aways in the mid range against the defenses you mentioned, and we've struggled to make those midrange shots recently (especially Tamin).

 

[Sigmapolis]

I get it is hard to keep up with all the games/changes on a almost daily basis. But still odd to me that ESPN/CBS can't be a bit better on their brackets/match-ups.

I could maybe excuse it if they matched Iowa State up with somebody like Texas A&M. Hard to remember just who everybody played in the morass of the pre-conference season back in November.

But you'd think anybody interested enough in college sports to have a job with CBS putting together a hypothetical bracket would know that rule and which conference ISU and TTU are in.

 

[Die4Cy]

Torvik chances of these happening...

1.) 14%

2.) 15%

3a.) 77%

3b.) 72%

Multiplying those together = 1.16424%

It could happen. Approximately 1% might be a little low. But I wouldn't call it likely.

So you're telling me there's a chance!

 

[Sigmapolis]

So you're telling me there's a chance!

We do have Jim Carrey on our side now.

 

[madguy30]

We struggle against zone defense looks and against teams that carry a lot of height in the post. Coaches need to adjust game plans for those things, our players are following thru with what they have been taught

Do you not think ISU's coaches are doing that?

And does ISU have the athletes to make all changes needed by armchair coaches?

 

[bawbie]

I could maybe excuse it if they matched Iowa State up with somebody like Texas A&M. Hard to remember just who everybody played in the morass of the pre-conference season back in November.

But you'd think anybody interested enough in college sports to have a job with CBS putting together a hypothetical bracket would know that rule and which conference ISU and TTU are in.

That reminds me of something I noticed this weekend - we may be the ONLY team from that Orlando tournament to make the NCAA tourney! That would have been unheard of at the time, when TAMU and FAU were both ranked in the top 15 and playing lights out

 

[Dale]

That bracket has Iowa State and Texas Tech in the same #3/#6 pod.

That's counter to bracket regulations. You can't have rematches until the Sweet Sixteen.

Used to be true, but no longer...depending.

• Each of the top four teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regions if they are seeded on the first four lines.
• Teams from the same conference shall not meet before the regional final if they played each other three or more times during the regular season, to include the conference tournament.
• Teams from the same conference shall not meet before the regional semifinals if they played each other twice during the regular season, to include the conference tournament.
• Teams from the same conference may play each other as early as the second round if they played no more than once during the regular season, to include the conference tournament.
• If possible, rematches of nonconference regular-season games should be avoided in the First Four and first round.

 

[MeanDean]

It really would have been nice if Shead missed that shot the other night. Just once not to come up in the clutch. Oh well, such is life. They're deserving of the title for sure.

The other "what if" is if Houston was to join the conference one year later. In that case ISU would be dominating and possibly in the hunt for a #1 seed. Timing....

 

[qwerty]

CBS is already there. Was updated yesterday morning as well. https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

That setup is full of errors. If ISU ends up a #3, we would currently be the top 3 seed, yet they have us paired with the top #2 seed (Arizona) instead of the lowest #2 seed.

 

[cyclones500]

That bracket has Iowa State and Texas Tech in the same #3/#6 pod.

That's counter to bracket regulations. You can't have rematches until the Sweet Sixteen.

At one time that was the case (unless unavoidable depending on # of teams selected from a conference), but it's allowed in current bracketing principles. (Assuming ISU & TT don't meet again in conference tournament)

• Teams from the same conference may play each other as early as the second round if they played no more than once during the regular season, to include the conference tournament.

 

[clone52]

That bracket has Iowa State and Texas Tech in the same #3/#6 pod.

That's counter to bracket regulations. You can't have rematches until the Sweet Sixteen.

no its not. We only played Texas Tech 1 time. If we don't play them in the big 12 tournament, they can play in Rd 2.

 

[clone52]

That setup is full of errors. If ISU ends up a #3, we would currently be the top 3 seed, yet they have us paired with the top #2 seed (Arizona) instead of the lowest #2 seed.

Thats not a rule either. They top 16 teams get placed in the closest available region. Once that is done, they see if they are balanced. If you add up the full seed line of the top 4 teams, the sums have to be within 5.

So if you had a region that had 1, 5, 9, 13, that would add up to 28.
If you had a region of 4, 8, 12, 16, that would add up to 40.
That would not be allowed.

That CBS setup doesn't list the overall order. They just list the seeds in EMSW order.

 

[qwerty]

Thats not a rule either. They top 16 teams get placed in the closest available region. Once that is done, they see if they are balanced. If you add up the full seed line of the top 4 teams, the sums have to be within 5.

So if you had a region that had 1, 5, 9, 13, that would add up to 28.
If you had a region of 4, 8, 12, 16, that would add up to 40.
That would not be allowed.

That CBS setup doesn't list the overall order. They just list the seeds in EMSW order.

I realized that, but I thought NCAA tried to pair 1-8, 2-7, 3-6, 4-5 overall seeds, etc. Didn't realize they had that much wiggle room, but probably necessary to get closest region placements.

 

[WhatchaGonnaDo]

I was curious about this and wanted to put this apparent offensive slump into perspective.

ISU's ADJOE on Torvik was 115.1 after @Houston, good for 33rd nationally

Now it's 114.8, not a huge drop, but now it's 52nd in the country.

The difference is that a lot of teams ranked 20-50 in the metric have been improving, I'd guess. Also, there's just not a lot of variance between teams 20-50.

Right now, the difference between 52) Iowa St and 20) Tennessee is the same as 5) Baylor to 1) Purdue

Purdue (128.6) - Baylor (124.7) = 3.9 difference
Tennesse (118.7) - Iowa State ( 114.8) = 3.9 difference

 

[cycloneworld]

That setup is full of errors. If ISU ends up a #3, we would currently be the top 3 seed, yet they have us paired with the top #2 seed (Arizona) instead of the lowest #2 seed.

It's Jerry Palm who is one of the worst bracketologists in the country.