Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

simply1

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Pardon the vacation flight discussion, but I thought I saw something this morning regarding K-State and discussions with the Big 12 on possible departure. I can't seem to find that link...anyone have any info?
That was a joke based on Wildcats talking to big 12. Arizona Wildcats…
 
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g4ce

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Pardon the vacation flight discussion, but I thought I saw something this morning regarding K-State and discussions with the Big 12 on possible departure. I can't seem to find that link...anyone have any info?
It was a vague tweet referencing a certain Wildcat university that may be departing their conference soon. This was in reference to the Arizona Wildcats. Not the Kansas State Wildcats.
 
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exCyDing

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What is SDSU's status with the MWC? Last I heard, the MWC said SDSU's request to extend the notice deadline to the end of July was considered notice they were leaving, but SDSU said it wasn't. Did the MWC take SDSU back? Or is it sort of in limbo so both sides can claim whatever is advantageous to them depending on the eventual outcome?

SDSU's floor for a 5 year deal is around $10M per year if their buyout is $16M. If they're stuck (or might be stuck) paying the $34M, they're going to need to be closer to $14M a year. If the rumors were true and the PAC's best offer was $20M, even if that holds firm without CO, there isn't much room for other schools to take a bigger cut. SDSU would be the floor, no member would accept less than them. Obviously, WA and OR would be at the top, followed by AZ, UT and ASU. Then OSU, WASt, Stanford and Cal.

The current PAC members really fall into 3 tiers: WA and OR, the remaining corner schools (AZ, ASU, Utah), and the other 4 current members. Assuming SDSU's floor is $10M, the PAC could get WA and OR up with $5M of the B12 at $27M. The corners could get close at $25M, but the legacy members would be at $17M
 

Jer

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What is SDSU's status with the MWC? Last I heard, the MWC said SDSU's request to extend the notice deadline to the end of July was considered notice they were leaving, but SDSU said it wasn't. Did the MWC take SDSU back? Or is it sort of in limbo so both sides can claim whatever is advantageous to them depending on the eventual outcome?

SDSU's floor for a 5 year deal is around $10M per year if their buyout is $16M. If they're stuck (or might be stuck) paying the $34M, they're going to need to be closer to $14M a year. If the rumors were true and the PAC's best offer was $20M, even if that holds firm without CO, there isn't much room for other schools to take a bigger cut. SDSU would be the floor, no member would accept less than them. Obviously, WA and OR would be at the top, followed by AZ, UT and ASU. Then OSU, WASt, Stanford and Cal.

The current PAC members really fall into 3 tiers: WA and OR, the remaining corner schools (AZ, ASU, Utah), and the other 4 current members. Assuming SDSU's floor is $10M, the PAC could get WA and OR up with $5M of the B12 at $27M. The corners could get close at $25M, but the legacy members would be at $17M
On again, off again.
 

exCyDing

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How can the Pac12 lend a hand to cover SDSU's $34M exit fee when they will have to hit up Pac12 schools to cover the $50M Comcast overpayment?
Yeah, the PAC stepping in to pay some or all of it looks decidedly unrealistic. I don't think the conference has the money for one buyout, much less multiple (if they want to go to 12 or need to backfill more than 1 to get to 10).
 

knowlesjam

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The numbers almost have to be bad…otherwise, the numbers would start to leak so the Pac12 could start it’s victory tour.

I’m going to guess around $25 mil per school with almost all streaming except for 1-2 games of the week.
The only way they get on a linear network is if they are playing a non-con against someone out of conference. Otherwise it will have to be 100% steaming on conference games. I find it hard to believe that a network like ION is going to shell out $250M a year for something plays out over 10 weeks and gets less ratings than a 15 year old repeat of Law and Order SVU.
 

Clonehomer

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What if the deal was there and he simply didn’t want to present it to CU?

No way that is what happened, but to Scheer’s point, it is all very interesting that GK all of a sudden has something to present that he didn’t have a couple days ago? Weird.


Being able to present numbers vs having a deal to sign are two very different things. If I were a PAC member, I’d really like to see all the details before feeling good about what’s being presented.
 

clone37

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Did a quick math on a PAC12 getting back to 10 teams, and doing unequal revenue to keep UW/UO happy, balanced on the backs of the 2 new members. These splits are modifiable of course, but just to give an idea of what they might be working with.

Total contract value $25M per team:
UW/UO = $32M
Other 6 = $27M
New 2 = $12M

Total contract value $20M per team:
UW/UO = $28M
Other 6 = $21M
New 2 = $9M

So if it is $25M per they can probably survive that I would think, unless all the games are on HSN and ION and they just hate that too much. Everyone should be happy enough.

If it is $20M per then it is really interesting.

FWIW, if Arizona were to stay, and they only do one add - the numbers look roughly the same, only slightly worse. $25M per probably works, but $20M per does not.

It's much worse with 12 teams, even though you have 2 more teams to eat partial shares. Just hurts the denominator, but no help for the numerator (since low value brands and no high value timeslots).
Nice number crunching here. I don't doubt that they could come somewhat close when they slice and dice up the potential dollars. Indications have been for quite some time that the linear portion has never come close to what schools are looking for, and will end up being the main sticking point and deal breaker.
 

FriendlySpartan

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Every non-"state" school in the Big 8 did it. Midwestern colloquialism.

University of Colorado (CU)
University of Kansas (KU)
University of Missouri (MU)
University of Nebraska (NU)
University of Oklahoma (OU)
Wonder if that’s because of other schools having the reverse.
Like UC is cal, UK is Kentucky, UM is Michigan, etc
 

2speedy1

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Wonder if GK's "deal" is for 8 or 9 or 10 or 11 or 12 teams, maybe for a merger with MWC, guess we get to find out tomorrow,
I read an article this morning that said the deal was for 200M per year, all streaming from Apple. But it was offered before CU left. So there is question on if it will still stand, and how it would change with less teams or adding lower value teams.