2022-2023 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
I don't think today hurt us at all.
Before todays games:
9. Tenn
10. UV
11, ISU
12. KSU
After todays games:
9. UVA - got lucky to beat ND at home
10. KSU
11. ISU
12. Tenn - lost by 12 to bubble team Kentucky
I like ISU's chances to stay in the good seed column especially how other general 'locks' like Missouri get beat et al.
Metrics will win out but there may be a few teams they just get a dart board out for.
After today, Texas Tech is the lowest Big 12 team in KenPom...at #57.
Take out TT and OU and the other 8 are in the Top 33, 7 in top 26, 6 in top 20. Big Ten actually has ten in top 50 as well which shocks me.
This league is stupid.
Take out TT and OU and the other 8 are in the Top 33, 7 in top 26, 6 in top 20. Big Ten actually has ten in top 50 as well which shocks me.
This league is stupid.
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Team Rankings is very down on Iowa State. The pre-committee committee just seeded the Cyclones as a #3 seed and, even after the K-State loss, it would probably take losing out or maybe winning one more game to drop as precipitously as this projection seems to be assuming at the moment...
For comparison, Torvik has the Cyclones as a #3 seed right now...
Assuming they finish the regular season 4-0 brings them up to a #2...
Assuming they finish the regular season 0-4 is well bad...
The most reasonable result is 2-2 (win home games, lose road games) --
That would keep them on the #3 line...
For comparison, Torvik has the Cyclones as a #3 seed right now...
Assuming they finish the regular season 4-0 brings them up to a #2...
Assuming they finish the regular season 0-4 is well bad...
The most reasonable result is 2-2 (win home games, lose road games) --
That would keep them on the #3 line...
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Assuming ISU goes 2-2 in the remaining regular season games, a 3 seed seems unlikely, IMO. I would guess going 2-2 in the remaining games puts them on the 4/5 line, depending on how they do in the Big 12 tournament. With one win in the tournament, I think they get a 4 seed. With two wins, I think they could get a 3 seed. If they lose immediately in the Big 12 tournament after splitting the remaining regular season games, I think they are a 5 seed. Time will tell.
I typed that wrong -- had it in my head for some reason in that moment there are five regular-season games remaining when of course there are only four of them remaining for the Cyclones.
4-0 regular season = #2 seed
0-4 regular season = #9 seed
2-2 (split home/road games) = #3 seed
You are right the Big 12 tournament complicates things, but we can at least make an estimate.
@mred and his bracket projections look like this right now (with ISU finishing out 2-2) --
#1 Texas
#2 Baylor
#3 Kansas
#4 Iowa State
#5 Kansas State
#6 TCU
#7 Oklahoma State
#8 Texas Tech
#9 West Virginia
#10 Oklahoma
I will use the bracket this generates to project the matchups in Kansas City and assuming the higher seed always wins. The Big 12 teams are so close to each other it doesn't matter much who you play as long as you can beat them and have another high-quality win for the committee to consider.
That assumption makes the Cyclones' path look like this...
Kansas State
Texas
Baylor
So if we force 2-2 home/road to close out the season, here is what happens next...
0-1 lost to Kansas State
1-1 beat Kansas State, lost to Texas
2-1 beat Kansas State and Texas, lost to Baylor in the championship
3-0 win the whole ******* thing
It doesn't seem to make much of a difference. Seems the floor going into Kansas City with a 10-8 record in conference is a #3 seed with some possibility of playing up to a #2 seed.
But by then, the bed is essentially made.
The absolute best case scenario (of 4-0 before 3-0 in KC) would give you this...
#1 Kansas
#2 Iowa State
#3 Texas
#4 Baylor
#5 Kansas State
#6 TCU
#7 Oklahoma State
#8 Texas Tech
#9 West Virginia
#10 Oklahoma
That would imply Iowa State's path would be...
Oklahoma State
Texas
Kansas
Run that through Torvik and it gives you this...
That leads to them fighting up to the #2 line and sniffing at a #1 seed.
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No way to know without knowing what other 3/4/5/6 type seeds do to finish their seasons. If many of them go .500 as well ISU will be a 3.
I wouldn't assume anything at this point. Oklahoma just took Texas to OT in Austin yesterday.
With how poorly Iowa State is playing since Grills back injury I wouldn't assume any wins right now.
Always appreciate the updates.
Torvik dropping ISU to a 9 seed with 0-4 seems a bit drastic. Maybe if a bunch of teams from 4 to 9 seed range do extremely well the next couple of weeks, low-5 seed line seems like realistic "basement." At least 2 of the 4 losses would be Q1, an OU loss at home is Q2 or Q3. Worst-case maybe 7 seed.
That's my assessment, not saying I know all.
Best option is don't go 0-4/0-5 down the stretch, so we don't have to find out!
Are we really playing that poorly? It’s the Big 12 ******* conference, we were bound to lose some games. We lost by 6 points on the road to a team that is ranked higher than us. We have yet to be blown out in any conference game this year. This conference is a *****.
You're incorrigible. There are plenty of other threads for your negativity.
TJ could make a Final Four and you'd complain they didn't win the natty.
It hasn't been great but going 3-5 against the Big 12 since then but that's not *that* shameful against this absolute ***** of a conference with most of those being road games.
The Big Ten is generally accepted as the second-best conference...
If you co-rank the Big 12 and the Big Ten based on their Torvik rankings you get this...
1. Purdue
2. Kansas
3. Baylor
4. Iowa State
5. Texas
6. TCU
7. K-State
8. West Virginia
9. Oklahoma State
10. Rutgers
11. Indiana
12. Michigan State
13. Maryland
14. Illinois
15. Iowa
16. Northwestern
17. Texas Tech
18. Michigan
19. Oklahoma
20. Penn State
21. Ohio State
22. Wisconsin
23. Nebraska
24. Minnesota
Notice anything about that list? There aren't many (if any) bad losses in this conference.
I get it man, the Big 12 is really tough, it's been historically good this year. We've actually lost 6 out of 9 since Grill hurt his back. I had a bad feeling when that happened it would linger all year and that's exactly what's going on now.
I'm simply saying this team isn't playing well enough right now to just assume a win over anybody even if it's in Hilton. Oklahoma probably should have won in Austin yesterday and West Virginia has won in Ames numerous times.
It's not like we get a Minnesota or DePaul coming in. We are fully capable of losing either one of those games if we don't start playing better.
Alright then. Truce. I agree with this when you use the gentler phrasing.
True enough -- anybody can beat anybody anywhere in this conference.
We're just working through the prospects of a somewhat likely and achievable scenario --
Win two in Hilton
Do your best but probably lose in Austin and Waco
Maybe nab one or two in Kansas City
Looks like the only thing that could really harm their seeding at this point would be home losses to Oklahoma and West Virginia given those games are at home and those are two of the weaker teams. Win those two and the floor is probably a #4, which indicates this was a great season going into the NCAAs.
The point is you’re negative often and this thread isn’t for that. You’re choosing to focus on losing out while if we play well even with a hurt Grill we could win 3 of 4.
The chance of going 0-4 to close out the Big 12 regular season is...
2.28%
...using the Torvik win probabilities.
Could happen. But Torvik has them having about an equal chance to go to the Final Four.
The chance of winning out (4-0) is 6.93%.
2.28%
...using the Torvik win probabilities.
Could happen. But Torvik has them having about an equal chance to go to the Final Four.
The chance of winning out (4-0) is 6.93%.
Some CFers will probably still have a hard time coping with a 4 or 5 seed.
