2022-2023 MBB computer projections thread

[madguy30]

Just 4 more conference wins.

 

[interrobang]

Compare the automatic bid percent (13.1%) to the Final Four percent (9.4%).

Automatic bid requires winning the Big 12 tournament, so needing to go 3-0 against three Big 12 teams. How about we say the chance of winning each of those games is 50-50, so...

50% ^ 3 = 12.5%

Pretty close to the percent calculated by their model, eh?

Making the Final Four requires winning four games in the NCAA tournament. The first round or two of those are going to be comparatively easy games compared to Big 12-level opponents, though.

So how about this --

90% First Round (at a #2 or #3 seed, this is going to be an AQ from a bad conference)
70% Round of 32 (this would likely be a bubble team or a stronger AQ team in case of an upset)
50% Sweet Sixteen game (this is likely to be a peer from another high-major conference)
30% Elite Eight game (this is likely to be the #1 or #2 seed who is one tier above Iowa State)

= 90% * 70% * 50% * 30% = 9.45%

That's almost exactly on par with the model estimates.

So yeah, I think that's reasonable. It's not likely and would require taking care of inferior teams in the first two rounds, beating an equal in the Sweet Sixteen, and then pulling an upset in the regional final.

Oh I don't disagree with the math on them. Just wasn't expecting that at the start of the season is what I meant. But with our current metrics, it definitely seems reasonable now.

 

[Malty Flannel]

ISU currently projected higher odds of getting 1 seed in the tourney than 5 seed

 

[isutrevman]

Since 12/9/2022. YOUR Iowa State Cyclones are #4 in the country!!!! Check out the 3% ranking

View attachment 108079

Includes the Iowa game, that's pretty wild.

How has the offense gotten so much better since Big 12 play started? It's only 4 games, but that's almost too big a sample to be a fluke.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Includes the Iowa game, that's pretty wild.

How has the offense gotten so much better since Big 12 play started? It's only 4 games, but that's almost too big a sample to be a fluke.

Kalscheur and Grill doing their best apex Steph/Klay impression.

 

[cyfan92]

Includes the Iowa game, that's pretty wild.

How has the offense gotten so much better since Big 12 play started? It's only 4 games, but that's almost too big a sample to be a fluke.

CyHawk was 12/8, so that is why I selected 12/9 to present

 

[Cyclonepride]

Just 4 more conference wins.

Time to raise that expectation to 10 and think seeding. Long season, but 6-8 the rest of the way gets us to 10

 

[mynameisjonas]

The evolution of the offense has been truly remarkable.

 

[bawbie]

Includes the Iowa game, that's pretty wild.

How has the offense gotten so much better since Big 12 play started? It's only 4 games, but that's almost too big a sample to be a fluke.

The Iowa game was 12/8, that's since then

 

[8bitnes]

Includes the Iowa game, that's pretty wild.

How has the offense gotten so much better since Big 12 play started? It's only 4 games, but that's almost too big a sample to be a fluke.

I don't know how much of an impact this has, but they haven't had classes to attend during this stretch and likely have been getting more sleep. Research actually shows adequate sleep impact shooting percentage by about 9%. Getting up for 630am practice and then attending classes vs going home for a nap is a simple explanation

 

[Cyclonepride]

The evolution of the offense has been truly remarkable.

Definitely a sum greater than its parts offense. They just share the ball so well, and no one has any ego about how many shots they get up. I think they're finally getting comfortable with each other.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Definitely a sum greater than its parts offense. They just share the ball so well, and no one has any ego about how many shots they get up. I think they're finally getting comfortable with each other.

They must be annoying to game plan against. Last year was easy --

"Take out Brockington, or at least force him to use his right hand, and everything else falls into place."

This team has so many players who can attack you in so many more ways. You never know if this is going to be a "good Kalscheur" or a "bad Kalscheur" night until he starts making/missing shots.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Torvik PRPG! for *only* Big 12 games --



-- holy moly Nowell and Carr are good... Nowell is 16/32 from three!
-- Kalscheur is in the range of a first-team all-conference player so far
-- Grill is on the cusp between second-team and third-team
-- Lipsey is in the range of an HM... looks like Gradey Nixon has him beat for FOTY, though
-- Osunniyi isn't too far behind him/has a shot at HM
-- Tyrese the Traitor is sucking eggs at #42 on the list

 

[Cyclonepride]

They must be annoying to game plan against. Last year was easy --

"Take out Brockington, or at least force him to use his right hand, and everything else falls into place."

This team has so many players who can attack you in so many more ways. You never know if this is going to be a "good Kalscheur" or a "bad Kalscheur" night until he starts making/missing shots.

Yep. Gabe and Caleb have established that they can flat out beat you on a given night if you don't stay with them, which opens everything else up.

 

[CyLyte2]

Lately Grill and Kalscheur is like having Matt Thomas and Naz Long on the floor at the same time. I don’t think it’s a fluke.

 

[bawbie]

"Gradey Nixon"

 

[bawbie]

Torvik PRPG! for *only* Big 12 games --

View attachment 108105

-- holy moly Nowell and Carr are good... Nowell is 16/32 from three!
-- Kalscheur is in the range of a first-team all-conference player so far
-- Grill is on the cusp between second-team and third-team
-- Lipsey is in the range of an HM... looks like Gradey Nixon has him beat for FOTY, though
-- Osunniyi isn't too far behind him/has a shot at HM
-- Tyrese the Traitor is sucking eggs at #42 on the list

Nowell has been stupid good - 95.3% of minutes is crazy too!

Does PRPG take defense into account?

 

[cyfan92]

http://bball.notnothing.net/bracket.php?conf=big12m

My 1/11 update. Feels like the league is slipping from 8-9 bids to 7 bids

 

[AuH2O]

Torvik PRPG! for *only* Big 12 games --

View attachment 108105

-- holy moly Nowell and Carr are good... Nowell is 16/32 from three!
-- Kalscheur is in the range of a first-team all-conference player so far
-- Grill is on the cusp between second-team and third-team
-- Lipsey is in the range of an HM... looks like Gradey Nixon has him beat for FOTY, though
-- Osunniyi isn't too far behind him/has a shot at HM
-- Tyrese the Traitor is sucking eggs at #42 on the list

Nowell is SO good. He's the kind of guy at PG that you pretty much say, Nowell and 4 other dudes are going to win games.

 

[CloniesForLife]

They must be annoying to game plan against. Last year was easy --

"Take out Brockington, or at least force him to use his right hand, and everything else falls into place."

This team has so many players who can attack you in so many more ways. You never know if this is going to be a "good Kalscheur" or a "bad Kalscheur" night until he starts making/missing shots.

Obviously last year was awesome because winning is number one and it was such a surprise coming off the horrible end of the Prohm era. But even the winning last year could be really hard to watch. This year's team (even earlier in the year but especially now) has been sooo much more enjoyable to watch.