Iowa State vs Iowa

davegilbertson

Well-Known Member
Sep 3, 2011
1,857
1,867
113
41
Used these metrics for the UConn and UNC games:

UNC:
- No (only made 3)
- No (37% ORB)
- No (18 made FTs)
- No (14 TOs)

UConn
- No (made 7) [this surprised me]
- Yes (60%!!!)
- Yes (20 made FTs)
- No (17 TOs)

Looking at last year's 13 losses:
- Lost both games we gave up 10 3s last year (never gave up more than 10) - also lost both games we gave up 9
- Occurred ZERO times last year!!
- 2 had 20 or more FT makes [may need to rethink this one, we went 5-2 in these games]
- 6 had 12 or fewer TOs [3 of 22 wins]

Absolutely amazing just how much of an outlier our poor rebounding in the UConn game was, giving up 60% offensive boards. The previous worse OBR% for a Otz ISU team was 43%. The season high, other than that game, for UConn is 35%.

The last time UConn had a 60% OBR game was against Maine in 2011
The last time ISU gave up a 60% OBR game was ... nevermind we won't talk about that
Milwaukee? UAB?
 

Cyinthenorth

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Mar 29, 2013
14,521
10,499
113
35
Dubuque
It's probably just me but I struggle to have any ill feelings towards Patrick. Margaret, Francis and Connor (and I'm sure eventually Jack) absolutely but Patrick seems like a decent kid that's overcome a lot...
Idk, the more I watch him, the more I see he has some tendencies that they have all demonstrated over the years. He is less angry but still whines plenty. His story is endearing, I'll agree with you on that. And not sure I could ever fully hate him after watching the awkward Falbo commercial.
 

Pope

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Feb 7, 2015
7,365
16,598
113
With news about Murray's injury reaching Vegas, I have a really difficult time understanding why the point spread is Iowa -3.5. Even though the guy is their leading scorer and rebounder (averaging 19 and 10), I still liked our chances of winning with him at full strength because whenever great offense goes up against great defense, the defense usually comes out on top (as evidenced from last year's matchup).

I know Vegas does this for living, but I'm struggling to understand this point spread. Do they just think there are a lot of foolish hawkeye fans that will bet with their heart instead of the head, or are my glasses way too rose colored?
 

Cyinthenorth

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Mar 29, 2013
14,521
10,499
113
35
Dubuque
With news about Murray's injury reaching Vegas, I have a really difficult time understanding why the point spread is Iowa -3.5. Even though the guy is their leading scorer and rebounder (averaging 19 and 10) I still liked our chances of winning with him at full strength. Whenever great offense goes up against great defense, the defense usually comes out on top as evidenced from last year.

I know Vegas does this for living, but I'm struggling to understand this point spread. Do they just think there are a lot of foolish hawkeye fans that will bet with their heart instead of the head?
A couple things: Is Murray officially out tonight?

And 2: I believe 3 points is the default for home advantage. So Vegas sees this as pretty even. And not sure if the Murray news is impacting anything at this point, but Vegas usually is privy to injuries before the general public. My guess is he's playing.
 

wonkadog

Well-Known Member
Apr 17, 2006
4,835
380
83
Ames, IA
If you watched the women's game last night you can understand the line. It's rare that we go over there and shoot super good and Iowa doesn't make about everything they throw up. #endofpessimism
 

dahliaclone

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Mar 4, 2007
13,768
20,389
113
Minneapolis
With news about Murray's injury reaching Vegas, I have a really difficult time understanding why the point spread is Iowa -3.5. Even though the guy is their leading scorer and rebounder (averaging 19 and 10), I still liked our chances of winning with him at full strength because whenever great offense goes up against great defense, the defense usually comes out on top (as evidenced from last year's matchup).

I know Vegas does this for living, but I'm struggling to understand this point spread. Do they just think there are a lot of foolish hawkeye fans that will bet with their heart instead of the head, or are my glasses way too rose colored?
Agreed. But maybe they still like Iowa and their offense? The Duke line was only Duke -2.5 at tip which was also crazy to me.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: Statefan10

Beyerball

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Jun 18, 2013
7,400
6,694
113
Texas
With news about Murray's injury reaching Vegas, I have a really difficult time understanding why the point spread is Iowa -3.5. Even though the guy is their leading scorer and rebounder (averaging 19 and 10), I still liked our chances of winning with him at full strength because whenever great offense goes up against great defense, the defense usually comes out on top (as evidenced from last year's matchup).

I know Vegas does this for living, but I'm struggling to understand this point spread. Do they just think there are a lot of foolish hawkeye fans that will bet with their heart instead of the head, or are my glasses way too rose colored?
The thing is nothing has been announced...All we have is a local TV guy saw Kris Murray in walking boot..

Could be precautionary...Could be real injury...He could be out for year...or it could be much about nothing..

I don't see Vegas dropping spreads by a ton without confirmation.

Spread started out Iowa -6...It is now -3.5. All that tells me is money coming in on ISU to cover.
 

Statefan10

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
May 20, 2019
19,986
24,835
113
With news about Murray's injury reaching Vegas, I have a really difficult time understanding why the point spread is Iowa -3.5. Even though the guy is their leading scorer and rebounder (averaging 19 and 10), I still liked our chances of winning with him at full strength because whenever great offense goes up against great defense, the defense usually comes out on top (as evidenced from last year's matchup).

I know Vegas does this for living, but I'm struggling to understand this point spread. Do they just think there are a lot of foolish hawkeye fans that will bet with their heart instead of the head, or are my glasses way too rose colored?
It'd be dumb for vegas to put us as favorites in their own house at this point of the year. They'd get flooded with people hammering Iowa's ML.
 

dahliaclone

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Mar 4, 2007
13,768
20,389
113
Minneapolis
The thing is nothing has been announced...All we have is a local TV guy saw Kris Murray in walking boot..

Could be precautionary...Could be real injury...He could be out for year...or it could be much about nothing..

I don't see Vegas dropping spreads by a ton without confirmation.

Spread started out Iowa -6...It is now -3.5. All that tells me is money coming in on ISU to cover.
That tweet is still the only boot mention. But others are now saying on boards he’s out. He’s out six games. He’s out at least through Wisconsin. He’s out due to plantar fasciitis. Still think he plays but there are posters giving minor details. Whether true or not we shall see.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: Statefan10

Statefan10

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
May 20, 2019
19,986
24,835
113
The thing is nothing has been announced...All we have is a local TV guy saw Kris Murray in walking boot..

Could be precautionary...Could be real injury...He could be out for year...or it could be much about nothing..

I don't see Vegas dropping spreads by a ton without confirmation.

Spread started out Iowa -6...It is now -3.5. All that tells me is money coming in on ISU to cover.
2.5 is a lot though in one afternoon. It was 6 this morning. Who knows if the sharps out there in the desert decided to roll with the clones but with the smoke out there of the injury and then the line moving that much, it seems like there could be some validity to it. Apparently people on Iowa's 247 said he's not playing but again, that's not confirmation.

I won't believe he's out until I see a boot on him and he's in jeans.
 

8bitnes

Well-Known Member
Nov 21, 2010
2,523
2,640
113
A couple things: Is Murray officially out tonight?

And 2: I believe 3 points is the default for home advantage. So Vegas sees this as pretty even. And not sure if the Murray news is impacting anything at this point, but Vegas usually is privy to injuries before the general public. My guess is he's playing.
Too bad Vegas doesn't have an option to simple pick margin of victory without declaring the winner. This is a double digit win for whoever comes out on top.

Either the good guys get to dictate pace and physicality without putting the hawks on the line and will then run them off their gym. Or, the good guys get into foul trouble, have to play reserved and rotate out while the hawks make a lot of free throws.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: CascadeClone

CascadeClone

Well-Known Member
Oct 24, 2009
9,189
11,136
113
If that’s true the kid should shut it down this year.

Disagree, although maybe you are being facetious. I have had plantar fasciitis, and have also TORN my plantar fascia. I have a plethora of experience I wish I didn't have!

If it is just the "-itis" well that hurts, and it's a bear, but if you stretch more and do some massage stuff, you can be over it within a week or two. It's not that bad if you work on it, and he will have top notch people helping at UIHC I would think. But you have to be careful if it is inflamed like that because it can lead to a tear.

I also tore mine (going balls out playing kickball at work like a middle-aged moron) and that was a real problem. Could not bear weight on it for a month, then physical therapy for some weeks... probably 4 months til I trusted it again. That is an injury the young man shouldn't risk.

All that said-- I am about 90% sure this is pre-made BE excuse so that he can play a little and have an excuse for sucking, as well as an excuse for Fran if they lose. And then they can use it all year, and he stays happily employed because "would have made the tournament if Kris hadn't had that nagging injury all year"...
 
  • Like
Reactions: Statefan10

Cyinthenorth

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Mar 29, 2013
14,521
10,499
113
35
Dubuque
Too bad Vegas doesn't have an option to simple pick margin of victory without declaring the winner. This is a double digit win for whoever comes out on top.

Either the good guys get to dictate pace and physicality without putting the hawks on the line and will then run them off their gym. Or, the good guys get into foul trouble, have to play reserved and rotate out while the hawks make a lot of free throws.
Points Bet I know has 3-way bets you can make like this. That said, I agree, this game could really swing heavily one way or the other, and recent history would tell you that it will probably not be close.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Statefan10

fsanford

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Dec 22, 2007
6,693
4,798
113
Los Angeles
With news about Murray's injury reaching Vegas, I have a really difficult time understanding why the point spread is Iowa -3.5. Even though the guy is their leading scorer and rebounder (averaging 19 and 10), I still liked our chances of winning with him at full strength because whenever great offense goes up against great defense, the defense usually comes out on top (as evidenced from last year's matchup).

I know Vegas does this for living, but I'm struggling to understand this point spread. Do they just think there are a lot of foolish hawkeye fans that will bet with their heart instead of the head, or are my glasses way too rose colored?
It is rumored, and Iowa gets 3 for home court.
It takes some pretty big $$ to move a spread 3 points in less than 24 hours.

As we approach game time it may drop another point or 2.
 

CloniesForLife

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Apr 22, 2015
13,957
17,733
113
Been thinking more about this and I think with their defense Lipsey could have a big game attacking the paint. Not necessarily a ton of scoring but just making things happen and get a few timely buckets.
 

Help Support Us

Become a patron