Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[WhoISthis]

Damn and here I thought Minn to the big12 would be the stupidest post of the day. University of Toronto, Missouri and then adding schools in Europe?

Just a quick reminder for some people, just because it’s on the internet doesn’t make it true…

The thing is, none of this is outlandish. There just are not many possible general outcomes now- the cone is narrow, if you will.

Whether the author of this actually has inside info, doesn't matter imo. Most of it basically what Warren laid out publicly last week, or through guys like McMurphy and Dodds.

The international comment isn't really a notable thing. A lifetime is a long time, and it wasn't that Big 10 football would be international. I know there's been talk about international partnerships- most BIG schools already have some level of agreements.

 

[isucy86]

I, for one, am skeptical of all the corner schools, but Utah seems to be the closest to a sure thing. I’d rank my preference on them as Utah > ASU > CO > AZ. The PAC has two no-brainers at this point - OR and WA - and three hard no’s - WA St, OR St and Cal. Everyone else is a maybe.

I would go a bit deeper and include Utah & ASU in the no-brainer list for the Big12. Wouldn't surprise me if TV Execs value UU & ASU same as Oregon.

I also feel UA & CU would be excellent gets for Big12 as they will benefit from playing games in ET & CT zones.

 

[AuH2O]

I would go a bit deeper and include Utah & ASU in the no-brainer list for the Big12. Wouldn't surprise me if TV Execs value UU & ASU same as Oregon.

I also feel UA & CU would be excellent gets for Big12 as they will benefit from playing games in ET & CT zones.

Media will like Utah. They are absolutely a take and on the rise. They still want to see rivalries too, and Utah and BYU would be heated.

 

[exCyDing]

I would go a bit deeper and include Utah & ASU in the no-brainer list for the Big12. Wouldn't surprise me if TV Execs value UU & ASU same as Oregon.

I also feel UA & CU would be excellent gets for Big12 as they will benefit from playing games in ET & CT zones.

ASU and Utah on the no-brained list is entirely plausible, I’ll agree with that. And thats before you factor in the blow it would deal to the PAC and what other pieces would move in response. It’s also entirely plausible that schools like CU and AZ would get more traction with better time slots or different matchups. That why they’re in my “questionable” list.

It’s incredibly intricate calculations since everyone’s value is partially tied to the other pieces, and the data/analysis isn’t really publicly available. It’s all speculation beyond two points:

• Some PAC members will not get an invite to the Big XII, otherwise full merger talks would’ve continued a lot longer than they did.
• The Big XII will still be the #3 conference with no PAC members, and would be pretty dumb if they picked PAC schools that made them the #4 conference.

 

[Kinch]

I’m sorry you said that Minn has lost its voice, isn’t happy with the realignment changes, stated that they didn’t deny the report and then implied that Minn asked the local reporter to print that story. All of which would imply that Minn isn’t happy in the big ten, and all of which is bat **** crazy

No didn't say that. They like the Big 10. All I said minnesota could have leaked the contact they received and perhaps they did so to tweak a couple of schools in the Big 10 who need to be brought down notch or two. We don't know who or why it was leaked to the minnesota press but don't necessarily assume the obvious. Keep in mind there is no love lost between minnesota or Ohio state.

 

[cyatheart]

Funny thing is, Minnesota would probably be a drag on the big 12 contract, in the big 12 over half of the big ten would just be another mouth to feed. That's how crazy all this is.

 

[Klubber]

Maybe so.

But WVU wouldn't mind jumping to the ACC, with worst case scenario they traded out BYU, KSU, and maybe ISU for their old Big East rivals. Cincy likely similar, and is on partial shares for 3 years in Big 12.

What do you think happens if those two were to jump? If UNC is still in the ACC, I don't see KU minding the fact they demote KU to Mountain West in exchange. The Texas schools all help ACC Network make more.

I think it's highly unlikely Cincy and WV are considering the ACC in any way, shape or form.

The ACC pays out less, is less stable, and has teams the SEC wants.

ESPN will protect the SEC's interests above all else. They're not going to push for ACC expansion when they know it's going to get raided. Which is also why ESPN is in no hurry to renegotiate the ACC media deal.

I know it's a weird feeling, but the Big XII is actually in a good situation here for once during realignment.

 

[isucy86]

Funny thing is, Minnesota would probably be a drag on the big 12 contract, in the big 12 over half of the big ten would just be another mouth to feed. That's how crazy all this is.

I wouldn't go that far. I would guess Minnesota's valuation would be around Big12 breakeven or better Again TV Execs love large DMA's like Twin Cities (#14).

The schools in bottom tier of Big10 would be: NW, Rutgers, IL, IN & MD.

 

[WhoISthis]

I think it's highly unlikely Cincy and WV are considering the ACC in any way, shape or form.

The ACC pays out less, is less stable, and has teams the SEC wants.

ESPN will protect the SEC's interests above all else. They're not going to push for ACC expansion when they know it's going to get raided. Which is also why ESPN is in no hurry to renegotiate the ACC media deal.

Does it pay out way less? That’s yet to be known. Navigate has it fairly even.

And ESPN IS protecting its sec interests by doing the bait and switch. They would love to push schools to the ACC because they know it will get raided.

ESPN has an ACC problem- it will be spending money on schools in that conference, just a matter of how many.

You said it yourself, it’s going to get raided. That only happens if schools are getting paid- including leftovers. It is more difficult to move schools to SEC if not also building it up as the leftover 3rd conference. It gets very difficult to do if Big 12 adds PAC schools.

Which is the point- if the PAC schools wait or pass, the Big 12 easily could be in ESPN’s crosshairs. And all it would take is a few schools preferring wake and BC over KSU and BYU, because it will mostly be the same 16-20 schools in the end

The Big 12 is in a good spot- if all want it to be. The eastern schools “want” is going to be tested at some point

 

[Gonzo]

No didn't say that. They like the Big 10. All I said minnesota could have leaked the contact they received and perhaps they did so to tweak a couple of schools in the Big 10 who need to be brought down notch or two. We don't know who or why it was leaked to the minnesota press but don't necessarily assume the obvious. Keep in mind there is no love lost between minnesota or Ohio state.

So you think Minnesota leaked that they were approached by the Big 12 to leave the B1G in an attempt to tweak Ohio St. and Michigan and bring them down a notch?

Think about that for a minute.

 

[Acylum]

So you think Minnesota leaked that they were approached by the Big 12 to leave the B1G in an attempt to tweak Ohio St. and Michigan and bring them down a notch?

Think about that for a minute.

The only way I could see it happening is if the rumors of OSU broaching the subject of unequal revenue sharing are true. And I still don’t see it.

 

[Gonzo]

The only way I could see it happening is if the rumors of OSU broaching the subject of unequal revenue sharing are true. And I still don’t see it.

Link to rumors?

 

[Acylum]

Link to rumors?

Can’t remember, think it was a podcast a couple weeks ago. I’m not going to look for it. I’m not your errand boy and couldn’t care less if you believe me or not.

 

[2speedy1]

Most of the women I know that call out behavior are just wanting to be able to go running, walk on the street, etc without crude sexual references being hurled at them. Maybe you should meet some women.

Not the women, I was referring to, but Ok. We were talking about the ones that purposely put themselves out there, on the internet etc, for attention, etc.

I dont believe too many women get cat called on a regular basis these days, but ok. The stereotype construction worker cat calling the woman walking down the street doesnt happen in real life on the regular.

Grew Up with/have 3 sisters, Married with 2 daughters. Not that I need to quantify myself to you.

 

[2speedy1]

I’d probably delete the posts, but maybe that’s more complicated than throttling people in the interface.

I'm just gonna keep this in mind in case you ever get a little off topic sometime, god forbid.

 

[HouClone]

Chuck Neinas said on 365 Sports (great site focusing on Big 12) that for expansion, the college must want to move. I know that is obvious. But right now, all the Pac teams would rather be in the Pac. Kliavkoff said he is getting numerous emails/texts forwarded to him. They wouldn't forward on if they were considering moving to the Big 12.

The revenue difference would have to substantial. Even if the Big 12 gets $40 million tv compared to $20 million for the Pac, I don't think they move. You have to consider travel, attendance, donations, etc.

Take Washington. Say their travel is $2 million more per year in the Big 12 for all sports. Say attendance falls 4,000 per football game playing teams with no history. Assume $175 revenue a person per game revenue x 7 games = $4.9 million per year just in football. Washington received $684 million donations in 2019. Assume just a 1% decrease and that is $6.8 million. The 1% decrease is being generous too. Just these 3 areas nets $13.7 million. So the total revenue difference gets a lot closer.

This feels like 2010. Remember when we were rumored to go to the Big East if Texas and others left? I was not excited. Far away, junior league perception, no history, and it would be a forced move. Sounds like the Pac perspective from their forums and team writers.

Only way we get any Pac teams is if the Big 10 raids 2 others.

 

[2speedy1]

Chuck Neinas said on 365 Sports (great site focusing on Big 12) that for expansion, the college must want to move. I know that is obvious. But right now, all the Pac teams would rather be in the Pac. Kliavkoff said he is getting numerous emails/texts forwarded to him. They wouldn't forward on if they were considering moving to the Big 12.

The revenue difference would have to substantial. Even if the Big 12 gets $40 million tv compared to $20 million for the Pac, I don't think they move. You have to consider travel, attendance, donations, etc.

Take Washington. Say their travel is $2 million more per year in the Big 12 for all sports. Say attendance falls 4,000 per football game playing teams with no history. Assume $175 revenue a person per game revenue x 7 games = $4.9 million per year just in football. Washington received $684 million donations in 2019. Assume just a 1% decrease and that is $6.8 million. The 1% decrease is being generous too. Just these 3 areas nets $13.7 million. So the total revenue difference gets a lot closer.

This feels like 2010. Remember when we were rumored to go to the Big East if Texas and others left? I was not excited. Far away, junior league perception, no history, and it would be a forced move. Sounds like the Pac perspective from their forums and team writers.

Only way we get any Pac teams is if the Big 10 raids 2 others.

So I decided to do a little research and put together some info on travel. What I found may surprise you.
If the 4 corners come to the Big 12 their travel does not increase as much as many would think, and in Colorado's case it actually decreases.
In Utah's case they do have a marginal increase in travel distance average.

A few things to consider. When looking at most if not all these schools, no one is jumping on a bus or train to go to a game, almost every game they travel by plane. With the exception of the extreme locals like BYU vs Utah, ASU vs UA, etc. With this in mind I took the longest flight of the current Pac 10 and compared that to what would be their longest flight in the Big 12. And it was usually only about 1.5 hours difference.

And keep in mind this is for the Longest most extreme flights, that will be very rare in a large conference of divisions/pods etc. Most of the travel in a large conference will be in their own area of the conference with shorter even possibly shorter than what they have in the current Pac now.

With this in mind, total average travel was not a huge difference when including the entire Big 12, and if we consider many of these will be paired in regions this could actually mean this travel is reduced and possibly be less than the current Pac 10.

 

[Gonzo]

Can’t remember, think it was a podcast a couple weeks ago. I’m not going to look for it. I’m not your errand boy and couldn’t care less if you believe me or not.

Easy there killer. I just hadn't heard any rumors from tOSU of unequal revenue sharing and was wondering if this was instead the tOSU AD thinking of going independent thing.

 

[AuH2O]

Chuck Neinas said on 365 Sports (great site focusing on Big 12) that for expansion, the college must want to move. I know that is obvious. But right now, all the Pac teams would rather be in the Pac. Kliavkoff said he is getting numerous emails/texts forwarded to him. They wouldn't forward on if they were considering moving to the Big 12.

The revenue difference would have to substantial. Even if the Big 12 gets $40 million tv compared to $20 million for the Pac, I don't think they move. You have to consider travel, attendance, donations, etc.

Take Washington. Say their travel is $2 million more per year in the Big 12 for all sports. Say attendance falls 4,000 per football game playing teams with no history. Assume $175 revenue a person per game revenue x 7 games = $4.9 million per year just in football. Washington received $684 million donations in 2019. Assume just a 1% decrease and that is $6.8 million. The 1% decrease is being generous too. Just these 3 areas nets $13.7 million. So the total revenue difference gets a lot closer.

This feels like 2010. Remember when we were rumored to go to the Big East if Texas and others left? I was not excited. Far away, junior league perception, no history, and it would be a forced move. Sounds like the Pac perspective from their forums and team writers.

Only way we get any Pac teams is if the Big 10 raids 2 others.

They are sharing those contacts with the Big 12 so Kliavkov has an idea of value he’s got to get in a media deal, and that they have an option that is better than staying and giving Oregon or UW unequal revenue.

The difference in this and ISU to the Big East is in that case it was absolutely a demotion and far less money. It would’ve killed ISU football and greatly damaged or AD. PAC teams to the Big 12 means more money, better conference, and perhaps a better chance to maintain playoff access.

Of course they want to stay, but they are clinging to what was and no longer exists.

 

[AuH2O]

Chuck Neinas said on 365 Sports (great site focusing on Big 12) that for expansion, the college must want to move. I know that is obvious. But right now, all the Pac teams would rather be in the Pac. Kliavkoff said he is getting numerous emails/texts forwarded to him. They wouldn't forward on if they were considering moving to the Big 12.

The revenue difference would have to substantial. Even if the Big 12 gets $40 million tv compared to $20 million for the Pac, I don't think they move. You have to consider travel, attendance, donations, etc.

Take Washington. Say their travel is $2 million more per year in the Big 12 for all sports. Say attendance falls 4,000 per football game playing teams with no history. Assume $175 revenue a person per game revenue x 7 games = $4.9 million per year just in football. Washington received $684 million donations in 2019. Assume just a 1% decrease and that is $6.8 million. The 1% decrease is being generous too. Just these 3 areas nets $13.7 million. So the total revenue difference gets a lot closer.

This feels like 2010. Remember when we were rumored to go to the Big East if Texas and others left? I was not excited. Far away, junior league perception, no history, and it would be a forced move. Sounds like the Pac perspective from their forums and team writers.

Only way we get any Pac teams is if the Big 10 raids 2 others.

Also, athletics donations are a tiny fraction of that $684M. Less than $20M. People aren’t going to stop donating to their academic programs at any significant level because they are playing K State instead air Washington State.

UW is probably an outlier because people actually go to games, but PAC ADs are on record being positive about the attendance boost Big 12 teams might bring.