Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

cyphoon

Well-Known Member
Sep 8, 2011
923
1,645
93
Tomorrows dominoes will be Cal & Stanford. And I'd bet more to follow!

My guess KU & CU. I would think SEC & Big10 would have interest.

The B1G's moves thus far have been focused on large TV markets or historic programs. With that in mind, I wonder if the next targets for them may be

Washington : Seattle
Cal or Stanford but not both : Bay area
Arizona or ASU but not both : AZ
Colorado : Denver

This would take them to 20, secure the largest markets in the country and make them a national brand. It also gives USC and UCLA logical travel partners.

I left Oregon out of the equation because of TV sets and they really are not historic if you go back more than 15 years or so. Oregon doesn't seem to do much to move the bottom line up. If they do add Oregeon, then maybe look for look for 1 or 3 more additions: KU, NC, and a powerhouse from the Southeast. Really sucks to type one of those.

The B1G could surround the SEC if it really wanted to.

H
 

CycloneBamaFan

Active Member
Nov 6, 2018
228
235
43
51
Are we really sure Oregon and Washington will go to the Big 10? USC and UCLA just got voted officially in and ditched the rest of their conference. If Oregon and Washington were in the mix, all 4 would have been going together. Right?
 
  • Like
Reactions: State2015

SCNCY

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Sep 11, 2009
10,689
8,502
113
37
La Fox, IL
Are we really sure Oregon and Washington will go to the Big 10? USC and UCLA just got voted officially in and ditched the rest of their conference. If Oregon and Washington were in the mix, all 4 would have been going together. Right?

That’s what I would think too, but all of this is done behind the scenes. So it’s possible they weren’t made aware and thus, not part of the usc/ucla move.
 

Farnsworth

Well-Known Member
Apr 11, 2006
17,368
5,864
113
Des Moines, IA
It's an argument why we should break away FB and BB. FB and BB can still fund those sports, but they can play regionally.

It's really stupid for Iowa to send non revenue sports to LA and Seattle instead of just playing more games in their traditional footprint. Even if it was free and the plane's exhaust was lovely scented myst, it's just a pointless logistical exercise.

Same for B12 btw, it's dumb that our non revenue sports are going to Orlando and Arizona and Utah and West Virginia.

This. although it sucks that the non-rev dont get to compete with their revenue ones. I've never been a D1 athlete but I'm sure you want to compete with your counterparts.
 

Rods79

Well-Known Member
Nov 27, 2006
3,546
1,238
113
Des Moines
I don't believe that.

A government antitrust case and potential loss of tax exempt status is in play if any state school is harmed too much by the loss of competitive status. I imagine there are more than a few senators more than happy to have a grandstanding hearing or two.

Tweet was about State Regents, and tying schools together to both move as one and force the conference’s hand. National politics could be in play if someone ultimately gets left out that wants in, but right now there are viable avenues to pursue.
 

HoopsTournament

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Apr 12, 2006
7,844
4,983
113
53
St. Joseph, MO
www.hoopstournament.net
When you’re potential revenue is over $100 million a year versus $30 million, it doesn’t take long for the value of the GOR to be bought
ACC would keep rights to all Clemson/FSU games until the end of the contract which means they can air any FSU home game even in the Big Ten/SEC. And not pay them a dime. At this point, it would be over $300 million. But that is just the amount of revenue that the teams would forfeit. ACC may value it differently (i.e. higher) in a cost/benefit analysis. It’s not just an exit fee. It would have to be negotiated, and there is no way the rest of the ACC would let them leave early without paying a huge amount. I could see it being over $500 million.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: NWICY

2speedy1

Well-Known Member
Jan 4, 2014
6,634
7,487
113
For the Big12 AAU doesn’t matter so a non factor
Never said it did, In my list I had AZ ahead for the B1G because of AAU. Otherwise its basically a toss up, maybe a tie. Arizona has a better Bball brand. Arizona State has wrestling. They really are fairly even I think. I think you could argue both ways as far as the Big 12 is concerned, that is why I say its really a tie.
 

cyatheart

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Nov 18, 2008
9,436
6,943
113
49
Have to figure these schools break away from the ncaa, and hence basketball is worth more down the road...no reason to give all the money to the ncaa when the schools can take it


Down the road ku might be worth more, but at the same tine if Penn state is making 150m to ku 40m, why shoullnt Penn state be better at basketball eventually as ku gets worse

People are thinking king too narrowly...everything is going to change
 

isucy86

Well-Known Member
Apr 13, 2006
9,134
7,734
113
Dubuque
With some of these recent moves, maybe taking PAC may not be the answer. I wonder if schools like Clemson, FSU, Miami, etc would be willing to break their GOR given the media deal numbers being thrown out and join the BIG 12. I mentioned somewhere else that Theo ACC media rights deal is getting smaller compared to these new deals, and thus, the dollars may make sense to pay the damages of leaving the ACC.

Additionally, these would be schools in an area of the country where they actually watch college football and in higher population areas.
I would think there is going to have to be some mutual agreement.

ACC rights are around $35M/ school in 2021/22 dollars. The ACC deal with ESPN runs through 2036. I bet there are escalators in the ACC deal increasing rights by 5-10% annually. So over the next 14 years that might be $60M/school on average annually..

Is someone going to pay $850M so UNC, FSU, etc. can break their GOR? $100M minus $60M equals $40M. No profit in breaking GOR unilaterally.

If there was, UT & OU would be gone.
 
Last edited:

Die4Cy

Well-Known Member
Jan 2, 2010
14,972
15,857
113
In 20 years....why have Indiana or Purdue sucking up 200m a year...just give nd the money...this will get paired down long term

Of course it will. When paying openly for players comes, and it may sooner when we think, there will be an upper and lower division of the Big Ten with some agreement to allow teams to move up or down, and payout will reflect whether you are up or down. The lower division will mostly play the lower division, and the upper division will mostly play themselves. And payouts will vary accordingly. This is ALL a long play to sort the wheat from the chaff of college football.
 

2speedy1

Well-Known Member
Jan 4, 2014
6,634
7,487
113
I think $100M is a bit high for 2025. Maybe 2028-2030.

Unless some lawyer discovers a GOR dissolution magic bullet, the ACC schools are probably off-limits unless ESPN and ACC schools mutually agree to end ACC Network.
ESPN owning that, and owning the SEC contract might be all it takes....You have to think they are looking very hard at how to get their big brands together in the SEC.
 

cyphoon

Well-Known Member
Sep 8, 2011
923
1,645
93
When you’re potential revenue is over $100 million a year versus $30 million, it doesn’t take long for the value of the GOR to be bought

Doesn't GoR mean that the conference gets all TV athletic revenue? If a school leaves the ACC for the B1G to make 70 million more, doesn't the ACC get all of that?

H
 

HFCS

Well-Known Member
Aug 13, 2010
75,680
66,023
113
LA LA Land
Not good news for B12, polish this turd if so inclined but this is not good news.

How is the almost certain add of CU, Utah, Az, ASU not a better position?

Maybe it highlights how bad things were.

It’s power 2. The only schools like ISU in power 2 are getting grandfathered in.

Big 12 becomes #3 conference today or best of second tier depending how you see it. Then ACC, then G5.
 

Hoggins

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Sep 2, 2019
3,395
4,858
113
37
ACC would keep rights to all Clemson/FSU games until the end of the contract which means they can air any FSU home game even in the Big Ten/SEC. And not pay them a dime. At this point, it would be over $300 million. But that is just the amount of revenue that the teams would forfeit. ACC may value it differently (i.e. higher) in a cost/benefit analysis. It’s not just an exit fee. It would have to be negotiated, and there is no way the rest of the ACC would let them leave early without paying a huge amount. I could see it being over $500 million.

Then they wait a few years like OUT is my guess. But at this point, the money is so big, the ACC is ******
 

isucy86

Well-Known Member
Apr 13, 2006
9,134
7,734
113
Dubuque
Have to figure these schools break away from the ncaa, and hence basketball is worth more down the road...no reason to give all the money to the ncaa when the schools can take it


Down the road ku might be worth more, but at the same tine if Penn state is making 150m to ku 40m, why shoullnt Penn state be better at basketball eventually as ku gets worse

People are thinking king too narrowly...everything is going to change
I think this is one of the big challenges for the new Big12 Commish. Creating a mindset where basketball value is in the conversation with football. After all there are 30+ contests vs 12.
 

HFCS

Well-Known Member
Aug 13, 2010
75,680
66,023
113
LA LA Land
If KU was going to go the Big East/independent route, they would've done it after UT and OU left. Today doesn't change their status; if anything it makes it more likely that their status in the Big 12 will improve relative to what it was yesterday.

#1 basketball conference stays #1 adding one elite program and three average.

Will still be reported as 3rd or 4th best everywhere but math, statistics and actual results.
 

Statefan10

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
May 20, 2019
21,188
27,212
113
How is the almost certain add of CU, Utah, Az, ASU not a better position?

Maybe it highlights how bad things were.

It’s power 2. The only schools like ISU in power 2 are getting grandfathered in.

Big 12 becomes #3 conference today or best of second tier depending how you see it. Then ACC, then G5.
We all knew this was coming at some point and we’ve set ourselves up to be the 3rd best conference. That’s all we could’ve asked for honestly. As long as the conference has a seat at the table when it comes to the CFP, we’re all good.