AJ Green Leaves the Portal - Staying in Draft

[BWRhasnoAC]

Totally agree, there was an added value in MT that he went overseas to big clubs over there and learned how to be a professional before he came back to the States. That experience, learning to add value in practice, how to practice like a pro while living the lifestyle, etc are all underrated things that NBA GM’s are interested in that the average fan doesn’t fully take in to consideration because they are so tied up in things like shooting 69% from the line vs 70.23% from the line being a deciding factor in how much they like a player.

This is a little bit shortsighted considering how many players go to the league only based on measurables and potential. It's a very complicated process and there's no one or two reasons why any player is ever chosen by a specific team.

 

[CascadiaClone]

Damn. I know it's going to happen soon I just want it to be announced so we can "officially" start getting real excited

I’m with you. I think we have ~24 hours of waiting to go.

 

[BoxsterCy]

I’m with you. I think we have ~24 hours of waiting to go.

What this wait has felt like.

 

[Marcelason78]

I spent a few minutes this morning examining the Torvik data on last season and projections for next season with and without AJG on the roster. I thought I would share my findings here.

2021-2022
---
+13.3 NRTG (#43)
101.7 ORTG (#184)
88.4 DRTG (#5)
#8 in the B12 (ahead of KSU and WVU, behind OSU)

The Torvik data confirms what we already knew about the team last year -- they struggled mightily to score but they were a menace on defense, which contributed to the solid maiden voyage.

Torvik projection without AJG
---
+13.8 NTRG (#43)
106.7 ORTG (#87)
92.3 DRTG (#18)
#9 in the B12 (ahead of KSU, behind OSU)

Without AJG on the team, the projections think Iowa State will be about as good as it was last year. The model has them taking a slight step backwards on defense (down to #18 from #5) but making a vast improvement on offense, mostly from the addition of the two St. Bonaventure transfers.

Torvik projection with AJG
---
+16.4 NTRG (#32)
109.3 ORTG (#51)
92.9 DRTG (#24-25)
#9 in the B12 (ahead of KSU, behind OSU, but closer now)

AJG would make the team slightly better overall. He would make them slightly worse on defense, which makes sense given he isn't known as a defensive stopper and he would likely take playing time away from plus defenders like Holmes, Kalscheur, and Williams. That being said, he makes the offense about 35 places better in the projections, which makes up for any slight downgrade in defense.

For those of you who do not know, the Torvik projections for defense are essentially a "steady-state" model of long-term program performance metrics. The idea is defense is more dependent on team culture, style, and experience than on raw talent. You do not need some complex model to know that Virginia is usually going to have a good defense, and normally a model built on those terms works fine.

Iowa State is not "normal" in this regard. Defensive rankings since the Prohm hire --

#168
#101
#184
#65
#281
#252
#5

One of these things is not like the other. I hypothesize that the bad Prohm defenses are pulling down the projections of DRTG on Torvik, the model not fully having digested that it is a new era and TJ and Kyle Green are going to want to run a defense-first program. So what would happen to the projections above if we add AJ *and* we assume the defense would be no worse than it was last year?

I think that is a reasonable thing to presume, by the way. The roster is taller and longer than last year, full of guys with reputations as hard-nosed defenders, and has a pair of genuine rim protectors. AJG might be the weakest defender of the starters, but I am sure he's going to give it all he has.

Torvik projection with AJG and with last year's defensive rating
---
+20.9 NRTG (#12 ahead of Illinois and Indiana and behind Texas and Kansas)
109.3 ORTG (#51)
88.4 DRTG (#1 and am not kidding about that, #2 Baylor at 88.6)
#4 in the B12 (ahead of TCU and WVU and behind UT, KU, and Baylor)

A team like that grades out as being ranked in the top 10-15 and seeded as roughly a #3 or #4 seed in the NCAA tournament. Not guaranteeing it but, wow, this team would have some upside.

Can't put much stock in Torvik if their numbers show we would only be "slightly better" with the addition of Green.
Our offensive attack would be massively better.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Can't put much stock in Torvik if their numbers show we would only be "slightly better" with the addition of Green.
Our offensive attack would be massively better.

#51 from #87 after adding AJ and after being #184 last season is a tremendous leap.

 

[Marcelason78]

#51 from #87 after adding AJ and after being #184 last season is a tremendous leap.

Agree.
Thought your summary said-- "AJG would make the team slightly better overall."

 

[cyclones12321]

It's always a great day to be a Cyclone.

I’ve had a few hundred kicks in the nuts that made me not feel that way but here I am, go Cyclones!

 

[ClonesTwenty1]

Agree.
Thought your summary said-- "AJG would make the team slightly better overall."

Green would be a very key piece to another 20 win season again

 

[cyclones500]

In the Weekly Pod, Blue said adding Green would move ISU from bubble territory to 6 seed range. Maybe that's a stretch, but obviously improves possibility of a bigger climb.

 

[Sigmapolis]

In the Weekly Pod, Blue said adding Green would move ISU from bubble territory to 6 seed range. Maybe that's a stretch, but obviously improves possibility of a bigger climb.

That's broadly consistent with what I spelled out in my Torvik post above.

 

[CoachHines3]

In the Weekly Pod, Blue said adding Green would move ISU from bubble territory to 6 seed range. Maybe that's a stretch, but obviously improves possibility of a bigger climb.

 

[Gunnerclone]

This is a little bit shortsighted considering how many players go to the league only based on measurables and potential. It's a very complicated process and there's no one or two reasons why any player is ever chosen by a specific team.

That’s my point, MT obviously brings other things besides talent and measurables that a kid straight out of college with similar measurables and talent doesn’t (and couldn’t) possess.

 

[VeloClone]

View attachment 99255

 

[CycloneVet]

Can that thing lock down the other teams best player? If so sign it up

 

[VeloClone]

Can that thing lock down the other teams best player? If so sign it up

Enter the lane at your own peril.

 

[Statefan10]

Enter the lane at your own peril.

Weren't those things the size of chickens?

 

[VeloClone]

Weren't those things the size of chickens?

6 feet long from head to tail and about 100 pounds. So bigger than a chicken but certainly not the monsters from the movie franchise. That said, 100 pounds with all those teeth and the claws is more than I would want to mess with.

 

[Statefan10]

6 feet long from head to tail and about 100 pounds. So bigger than a chicken but certainly not the monsters from the movie franchise. That said, 100 pounds with all those teeth and the claws is more than I would want to mess with.

Insane to think we walk on the same planet those things walked on.

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

6 feet long from head to tail and about 100 pounds. So bigger than a chicken but certainly not the monsters from the movie franchise. That said, 100 pounds with all those teeth and the claws is more than I would want to mess with.

Cougars are only about 200 lbs max and would throw you around.

 

[VeloClone]

Cougars are only about 200 lbs max and would throw you around.

Are the cougars you are dating 200 lbs.?